favorable policies are coming out frequently, developers are accelerating the launch of new projects, and the "golden nine" of the real estate market is tailing off.
2024-10-01
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september is the traditional sales node for real estate and is called the "golden september". what is the quality of this year's "golden nine"?
according to statistics from cric and china index research institute, the overall transaction volume of the real estate market in september was in continuous adjustment. however, due to the favorable policies frequently released by the central and local governments, the end of the month ended, and both the consultation volume and transaction volume increased significantly.
regarding the "silver ten" that has arrived, the two major institutions believe that the real estate market activity in various regions is expected to increase, and the overall transaction volume will stop falling and stabilize. especially in first-tier cities, which are direct beneficiaries of favorable policies, there is still room for new home transactions to increase.
the property market "kicked up" at the end of the month, with transaction volume increasing significantly
according to cric statistics, the supply of new homes increased slightly in september and the transaction volume continued to decline. the quality of "golden september" was average. the supply in 30 key cities in september increased by 12% month-on-month, the same as the monthly average in the first half of the year; the transaction volume fell for three consecutive times, down 6% month-on-month, and 34% year-on-year, still down 17% compared with the monthly average in the first half of the year.
in terms of energy levels, the transaction scale of first-tier cities was stable with a decrease. four first-tier cities dropped by 15% month-on-month and 35% year-on-year. the average monthly decrease was 12% compared with the first half of the year, and the cumulative year-on-year decrease was 27%. except for guangzhou, the three first-tier cities of beijing, shanghai, and shenzhen all experienced year-on-year declines to varying degrees, mainly due to the continued intensification of residents’ wait-and-see sentiment towards home purchases, especially the diminishing effect of stimulus policies on the market in may, combined with high temperatures and typhoon weather. affected by other unfavorable factors, residents are not very enthusiastic about buying houses. the rebound in guangzhou's trading volume was mainly due to the significant increase in supply, and the enthusiasm for trading has rebounded to a certain extent.
according to statistics from the china index research institute, in the past two months, the transaction volume of new and second-hand houses in first-tier cities has shown an overall weakening trend month-on-month. from september 1st to 29th, 3,088 new homes were sold in beijing and 12,331 second-hand homes were sold; 7,114 new homes were sold and 15,184 second-hand homes were sold in shanghai; 1,625 new homes were sold and 3,179 second-hand homes were sold in shenzhen; and 4,501 new homes were sold in guangzhou.
it is worth noting that in the last few days of september, with the release of a series of favorable policies, the property market transactions "took off".
according to monitoring data from the china index research institute, from september 24 to september 29, the average daily transaction data in first-tier cities improved slightly compared with september 1 to september 23. among them, new home transactions in beijing increased by 100.9% and second-hand homes by 53.9%; shanghai new home transactions increased by 64.4% and second-hand homes by 20.6%; shanghai new homes increased by 47.7% and second-hand homes by 4.5%; guangzhou new homes increased by 76.6%.
cric shows that in the 39th week of 2024 (september 23-september 29), the transaction index at all levels rebounded significantly. specifically, the first-tier city index increased by 42.36 points month-on-month to 90.36, the second-tier city transaction index increased by 28.20 points month-on-month to 62.33, and the third- and fourth-tier city transaction index increased by 54.74 points month-on-month to 117.31. at the same time, the sales rate at the launch of key monitored cities was 29%, an increase of 8 percentage points month-on-month. this week, 6 projects were launched in nanjing, and 2 projects were launched in beijing, suzhou, wuhan, and hangzhou each.
"golden nine and silver ten" real estate company promotion activities increase
entering the traditional marketing season of "golden nine and silver ten", major real estate companies have adopted diversified and highly targeted marketing strategies, such as new launches, discount promotions, real-life demonstration areas, and club openings, aiming to attract widespread attention and enhance consumer home purchases. willingness to promote sales growth.
in terms of promotional activities, for example, china overseas real estate has collaborated online and offline to launch a limited-time 22% discount, 200,000 talent subsidies, 10,000 yuan travel funds and other home purchase benefits; longfor has collaborated with five cities to launch various home purchase benefits and subsidies, including holiday travel vouchers and free properties. fees, decoration subsidies, gold gifts, 9.2% discount, etc.; poly launched the "gold, nine, silver and ten guaranteed purchase plan" that "poly guarantees the price and saves the price."
in the current era of "roll" products and "roll" marketing, in order to attract more customers, many real estate projects have opened real-life demonstration areas and upgraded community clubs during the marketing stage. for example, in september, the china construction·jiuyue mansion real-life demonstration area and clubhouse in beijing opened. in the sunken courtyard clubhouse of about 1,500 square meters in the real-life demonstration area, china construction·jiuyue mansion built a waterfall about 12 meters high, and also designed a fitness area, owner canteen, health cabin, reception area, multi-purpose room etc.
according to industry insiders, the real-life display area provides home buyers with the opportunity to experience it firsthand, which helps speed up the home purchase decision-making process.
during the "golden nine and silver ten" periods, various real estate companies also accelerated their new initiatives. in late september, the name of the cccc·banshan guanlan project located in shijingshan, beijing, was officially released. this project is the first phase of the urban renewal project implemented by china communications construction company in the entire wulituo and guangning streets of shijingshan. it has built a 5-story pure bungalow with a floor area ratio of only 1.2, with a construction area of about 95-176 square meters and three to four bedrooms in fine decoration. .
under the favorable policies, more real estate companies choose to enter the market during the "golden september and silver ten" periods to seize the sales window period. jiantou·yuheyuan located in tianjin is expected to obtain a pre-sale certificate in october. the project is located in the hongqiao section of tianjin, across a river from tianjin west railway station and close to the mouth of the sancha river, the source of tianjin. it is an important part of the industry-city integration process with tianjin west railway station as the core. it integrates tianjin cultural heritage into its design. for example, the core concept of the home lobby is "crown of the haihe river", and the garden landscape design concept is "a river leads the tide and seven waves enter the garden".
it is worth noting that during the national day holiday, which has already arrived, real estate companies have also taken advantage of the policy window period to increase their promotion efforts.
for example, china resources land held a 19-plate linkage to hold a home buying event during the good scenery and good houses festival to "stop the decline and stabilize confidence, and take advantage of the opportunity to buy a house during the national day", and organized a variety of on-site marketing activities for projects on sale. several projects in jinmao north china and beijing launched discounts and gifts during the national day. jinmao beijing international community launched holiday-exclusive 9.2% off housing and 5 years of property fees for direct signing. jinmao mansion in xishan has a limited-time discount of 50,000 yuan on parking spaces. beijing jinmao mansion offers a special "fixed price" for 5 sets of parking spaces. zhonghai fenghe no. 3 courtyard has launched a national day special offer, with a limited-time flash sale starting from 80,000 yuan/square meter.
it is expected that real estate market activity in various regions will increase in october
since the end of september, favorable policies for the property market have been introduced frequently. after the political bureau meeting of the cpc central committee set the tone of "stopping the decline and restoring stability," the central government and cities including beijing, shanghai, guangzhou, and shenzhen introduced strong loosening policies.
on the evening of september 29, the central bank issued four new policies, including improving the interest rate pricing mechanism for commercial personal housing loans, optimizing the minimum down payment ratio for personal housing loans, optimizing re-loans for affordable housing, and extending the period of some real estate financial policies.
in terms of loosening local regulation, the social security period for foreigners purchasing houses outside the outer ring in shanghai has been reduced to one year, the standard for ordinary housing and the standard for non-ordinary housing have been cancelled, the period of value-added tax collection and exemption has been adjusted from 5 years to 2 years, and the down payment ratio has been reduced; in guangzhou, it has been completely abolished house purchase restrictions have been imposed, and non-registered households will no longer be subject to review of house purchase qualifications; shenzhen has optimized the district housing purchase restriction policy. non-locals in non-core areas do not need to provide social security or tax certificates to purchase houses. sales restrictions on commercial housing and business apartments have been cancelled. the value-added tax exemption period has been increased from 5 years to 5 years. adjusted to 2 years, reducing the down payment ratio; beijing’s non-beijing household registration households have shortened the social security period for house purchase, from 5 years outside the fifth ring road to 2 years, and from 5 years within the fifth ring road to 3 years. tongzhou’s house purchase policy is consistent with the city’s, canceling ordinary housing and for non-ordinary housing standards, the down payment ratio for the first home is reduced to 15%.
looking forward to the future, the china index research institute believes that shanghai, shenzhen, guangzhou, and beijing will quickly follow up on the new property market policies, which is also a concrete manifestation of active response to the "9·26" politburo meeting. the overall policy intensity is in line with expectations, and the real estate markets in various places are expected to be active in october. the degree is expected to increase, which will further drive the recovery of activity in the national real estate market. if the national real estate market is to stop falling and stabilize, it is expected that more policies will be needed.
cric predicts that based on the expectation of favorable policies, the overall transaction volume of the property market in october may stop falling and stabilize. however, as first-tier cities are direct beneficiaries of the favorable policies, there is still room for increased transaction volume of new homes.
beijing news shell finance reporter duan wenping
edited by yang juanjuan and proofread by yang li
