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a shares have gone crazy.

the stock market has been falling for 3 years, but it only took 6 trading days to enter the bull market. from the low on september 20 to the high on september 30, the increase increased by just over 20%, entering a technical bull market.

the market sentiment was feverish, and the trading volume exceeded one trillion in half an hour, setting a historical record.

many new investors don't have time to analyze stocks and just buy them casually. whatever they buy will go up.

now everyone has completely lost their minds. in the past, whenever there was a disturbance in the outside world, we big a-shares had to pay the bill. now there are so many major events in the middle east that our investors cannot see at all.

nothing has changed now and the economy is still sluggish.

in august, industrial profits above designated size fell 17.8% year-on-year. in september, the caixin manufacturing pmi dropped sharply and fell below the boom-bust line, hitting a new low since august 2023.

many people have a question: will the property market rise as sharply as the stock market?

from an emotional point of view, the stock market is the same as the property market. participants are very excited and in high spirits.

what's the difference?

the optimism in the stock market has broken through, attracting many new investors to open accounts, and the queues have been long. in order to capture this wave of customers, some brokerage firms do not even plan to take a holiday during the national day.

the current state of the stock market is that old investors are scared when they see this rising trend, and new investors are excited when they see this rising trend.

but this is the driving force behind the rise of the market. new investors are ignorant and fearless, chasing the rise and killing the fall.seeing the rise, old investors transfer their chips to new investors. there was no way, there were too many new investors, so during the exchange of chips, the stock market continued to rise.

then the old investors began to reflect on whether they were too conservative, so they took back the chips they had sold before.

this cycle alternates, and the stock market continues to rise, creating a bull market.

the property market is different. the current optimism in the property market is mainly limited to the small circle of practitioners.

it is undeniable that in the face of such attractive policies, the prices of some new properties are indeed rising, by 5%-10% a day.

some second-hand house landlords have seen their listing prices rise by 1 million overnight, and their base prices have also been raised a lot.

in addition, some popular properties are really crowded with many potential buyers.

however, the expectation of a downward trend in the property market has not been reversed. except for a small group of people who make a living by selling their houses, most people do not believe that the property market will rise sharply.

if you ask a random passerby what he thinks of these price increases, his answer will most likely be, why don't you increase it by 10 million? anyway, they are all listed, and there is no way to actually close the deal. you can put as much as you want.

more people will think that is stupid. if you don’t run now, when will you run? this is your last chance to sell your house.

do you see, this is the biggest difference between the property market and the stock market: the property market has not formed a unanimous expectation of rising, and the craze in the property market has not broken out.

even if everyone knows that the stock market can only rise for a few months, they will still participate in it, betting that they will not take the last shot, and that they will run fast.

many people think that i do not use leverage in the stock market and the risks are controllable.

what about the property market? 15% down payment now.

equivalent to all the savings of you and your family in the first half of your life, and then add 6.7 times leverage.if the price drops by 15%, all the wealth of your family in the first half of your life will be wiped out.

you may not fully understand this risk, so i would like to ask, do you dare to bet all your wealth, increase leverage by 7 times, and speculate in stocks or futures?

from a trading perspective, the risk for stock investors is much lower than buying a house.

this is why the stock market is heating up quickly, while the property market is still in the preheating stage.

in fact, after the correction in the past few years, many real estate speculators have basically gone bankrupt. even if there is an opportunity, they are unable to warm up the market.

therefore, it is not that easy to heat up the property market.

of course, what is more critical is the policy difference between the stock market and the property market.

this time the policy can be said to be unified action and full firepower.

from these policies, we can get a glimpse of the real thoughts of policymakers.

economic stimulus: cut interest rates, cut reserve requirements, and act quickly, even setting up new liquidity tools to inject water into the economy.

judging from the policy language, the determination to save the economy is unreserved.

stock market policy:the central bank will create stock buybacks, increase holdings, and refinance loans for major shareholders; it will create swap facilities for non-bank institutions, all of which are direct exports of liquidity by the central bank.

how did supervision treat the stock market before? i called on long-term capital to enter the market, and called on xx funds to enter the market. i called for a long time, but found that it was of no use.

well, if you don’t want to enter the market, then i can use central bank funds to enter the market.

you know, the bullets of our central bank are unlimited.

judging from one sentence, the determination to save the stock market is also quite strong.

let’s look at the property market: the policy caliber is to lower existing mortgage interest rates, reduce the down payment ratio of mortgages to 15%, cancel purchase restrictions, etc.

which of these property market policies is relatively new? reduce existing mortgage interest rates.

now the specific policy details have been announced. fixed-rate mortgages can be adjusted to floating-rate mortgages. the mortgage interest rate is generally lpr-30bp. the previous floating-rate mortgages can also be adjusted. if you are lpr+bp, you can also adjust to lpr. -30bp.

this policy is consistent with what was announced.

which one iswhat's the key? remove purchase restrictions.

we have previously analyzed that the transition from "housing is for living, not for speculation" to allowing real estate speculation depends on whether purchase restrictions are lifted.

because purchase restrictions have been lifted, it means that real estate speculation is allowed.

therefore, whether to cancel purchase restrictions is very critical.

what was the 926 politburo meeting’s stance on the property market? the property market "stopped falling and stabilized",adjust the housing purchase restriction policy.

therefore, everyone’s expectation is basically that purchase restrictions will be completely lifted in first-tier cities.

after all, the politburo meeting clearly stated that the housing purchase restriction policy will be adjusted. if you don’t cancel the purchase restriction now, when will it be lifted?

moreover, the current efforts to save the economy require the full cooperation of all policies, and there are reasons to completely cancel purchase restrictions.

under this expectation, what are the specific policies brewing in first-tier cities?

guangzhou:purchase restrictions have been completely lifted; the down payment ratio for second homes is 20%-25%.

shenzhen:the sales restriction is lifted (note, it is a sales restriction, not a purchase restriction). non-shenzhen households can purchase 1 unit in the core area (social security/personal tax is changed from 3 years to 1 year). there is no purchase restriction in non-core areas (previously, 1 year of social security/personal tax was required) tax), you can buy one more set for your second child; the down payment for the second set is 20% (the second set for your second child can be paid as the first set).

shanghai:when non-shanghai residents purchase housing outside the outer ring, the social security or personal tax period is "replaced from 3 to 1"; when buying a house in core areas, residence permit points and 3 years of social security are still required; the minimum down payment for a second home is 20%.

next, let’s compare the difference between the policy scope of the property market and its implementation in specific cities:

cancellation of purchase restrictions: only guangzhou has canceled it, and some other cities have not canceled it. they have only relaxed the policy like squeezing toothpaste.

the down payment for a second home is reduced to 15%: the down payment for a second home in four first-tier cities has also been adjusted toothpaste-style to 20%.

to sum up in one sentence, the specific details of the current first-tier cities to stimulate the property market are very conservative, and the scale is not only not larger than the large-caliber, but even far less than the large-caliber.

there is a question: why are the property market policies in first-tier cities so conservative and unwilling to fully implement policies like the stock market?

why?

because housing for housing, not for speculation, is still the keynote.although it is no longer mentioned, it is still there.

the above-mentioned tone for the property market is: "stop falling and stabilize" rather than "recover." the general tone of the property market is still: housing is for living, not for speculation.

in other words, excluding all kinds of redundant information, from the perspective of policy implementation, rising housing prices is not the real intention at all.

we can even predict that if housing prices rise as sharply as the stock market, tough repressive policies will definitely be introduced to keep up with the momentum of rising housing prices.

therefore, we can see from the policy details of the stock market and property market:

the higher authorities allow the stock market to rise, and even hope that the stock market will rise, but they do not want housing prices to rise.

after all, the negative impact of high housing prices on the economy has not been eliminated, such as excessive rents squeezing the real economy and so on.

so, do you think house prices will continue to rise significantly?