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on september 27, a-shares continued to surge, with the gem index soaring 10%, the largest single-day increase, and the shanghai stock exchange system was crowded.

just after the market closed, a real estate agent i hadn't contacted for a long time called me and said, "brother, the stock market is soaring now. you have made money! the landlords are starting to get ready to raise prices. if you make money, hurry up and look at the house. now is the last chance." "

i have previously written a series of "buying a house in a bear market" series ("buying a house in a bear market" and "buying a house in a bear market, part 2") to record my house buying process. however, because i could not see the bottom of the property market's decline, although i had a fancy house, i still couldn't see it. the psychological price is far different from that of landlords. they are in a contradiction between wanting to wait for house prices to continue to fall and hoping that policies will support the bottom as soon as possible.

at present, what everyone is looking forward to the most is to lower the interest rates on existing housing loans. although the central bank once said that the interest rate cut was "restricted", it quickly compromised in the face of reality.

previously, we focused on the number of early repayments. in fact, the number of people who have stopped paying off their loans has also increased sharply in recent years. according to cric monitoring, as of august 31, the cumulative number of foreclosure houses in typical cities was 280,000, an increase of 12% compared to the same period in 2023.this shows that many home buyers have given up on housing payments and simply settled down. this is also an important reason for banks to accept lower interest rates on existing housing loans.

this is easy to understand. the house price in the hands of those who took over the deal at a high level may have dropped by 30% to 40% or even halved. if their down payment was 30%, they would have already lost the down payment, and the house in their hands would already have negative equity. .

there is such an example around me. a brother of my family took over a property in nanchang in 2021. not only is the house unfinished, but it has not been handed over yet. the worst thing is that the down payment has dropped. he is still struggling to defend his rights, but he just doesn’t want to go to the bank. the blacklist can only be supported by hard work.

the favorable policies came unexpectedly.

on september 24, the state council held a press conference on "financial support for high-quality economic development". the central bank launched a package of policies, including lowering reserve requirements, lowering interest rates, lowering existing mortgage interest rates, and unifying the minimum down payment ratio for first- and second-home mortgages.

among them, the existing mortgage interest rate was reduced by 50bp, and there is still room for further reductions in the future, which detonated the market.

the most direct benefit of lowering existing mortgage interest rates is that it effectively reduces residents' loan repayment burden. families will have more disposable income for daily consumption, promote the prosperity of related industries and promote economic development.

at the meeting of the political bureau of the central committee on september 26, it was rare to point out that “some new situations and problems have emerged in the current economic operation” and required that “we must look at the current economic situation comprehensively, objectively and calmly, face up to difficulties, strengthen confidence, and effectively strengthen the economic "we must strengthen the counter-cyclical adjustment of fiscal and monetary policies."

specific to real estate, the language of the meeting was extremely urgent and positive, proposing that "it is necessary to promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize." it is necessary to respond to the concerns of the masses, adjust the housing purchase restriction policy, reduce the interest rate of existing mortgage loans, and speed up the improvement of land, fiscal and taxation, financial and other policies to promote the construction of a new model of real estate development.

industry comments: this is what decision-makers have said about the real estate market so far.most positive statement, indicating that the rapid decline of real estate has become a prominent problem in economic operation, which may lead to a series of risks, and policies must be "strong medicine".

the capital market responded most quickly. as of september 30, the a-share real estate sector as a whole had risen by nearly 40 points in the five trading days. the real estate market is expected to usher in a bull market.

with the support of central policies, local governments have also accelerated stimulus efforts.

on september 27, the guangzhou nansha district housing and urban-rural development bureau issued the "notice on optimizing and adjusting nansha district real estate policies", announcing that nansha district will relax housing purchase restrictions, including that the purchase of commercial housing within nansha district will no longer be reviewed for home purchase qualifications. , and owners are no longer restricted from purchasing parking spaces.

although nansha is only a non-core area in guangzhou, it also indicates that first-tier cities have taken steps to fully relax purchase restrictions.

on september 27, foreign media (reuters) released exclusive news that shanghai and shenzhen will announce the lifting of major home purchase restrictions in the next few weeks to boost the market, while beijing will lift purchase restrictions outside key areas.

this is more positive than our previous prediction. previously, we believed that shanghai and beijing would cancel all purchase restrictions in non-core areas, while guangzhou and shenzhen would completely cancel them. as we all know, guangzhou’s previous measures were actually equivalent to lifting all purchase restrictions. however, if shanghai can lift the purchase restriction measures at once, it will definitely stabilize housing prices and even most likely restore the prices of some high-quality assets.

on the second day after the central government set the tone to promote the real estate market to "stop falling and stabilize", shanghai opened all seven markets and the market was hot. on september 27, the sixth phase of green lake world, a multi-billion-dollar luxury home in shanghai, and the third phase of zhonghai lingdi jiuxu, a multi-million-dollar luxury home, opened on the same day. the two sales achieved sales of nearly 17 billion yuan.some smart money has already begun to ambush, indicating that everyone has sufficient confidence in this policy.

the news fell quickly. on september 29, china’s property market ushered in a sleepless night.

that night, the central bank issued an announcement that interest rates on existing mortgage loans for first and second homes would be reduced in batches, with an average decrease of about 0.5%. this is the implementation of the policy content on september 26.

the bigger surprise came from the simultaneous release of property market deregulation policies in three first-tier cities, shanghai, guangzhou and shenzhen.

shanghai’s policy is not as good as expected, and it is still optimizing the purchase restriction policy, which mainly includes shortening the social security payment period, improving the home purchase benefits for those holding residence permits, increasing home purchase qualifications in the lingang new area, implementing the reduction of existing mortgage interest rates, reducing the down payment ratio, and shortening the value-added tax exemption period, cancellation of ordinary housing standards, etc.

shenzhen optimizes the purchase restriction policy and shortens the period of value-added tax collection and exemption. the main points are to optimize the district housing purchase restriction policy (local household registration families are limited to 2 units, local household registration singles are limited to 1 unit, and non-local household registration is limited to 1 unit), and the cancellation of commercial housing and business apartments transfer restrictions, adjustment of the value-added tax exemption period for personal housing transfers from 5 years to 2 years, reduction of down payment ratio, etc.

guangzhou was the most happy, explicitly canceling various purchase restriction policies for households to purchase housing in the city, becoming the first city among the four major first-tier cities to lift purchase restrictions across the board.

it is foreseeable that the shanghai and shenzhen stock markets are still in a state of squeezing out toothpaste. if the effect is not as good as expected, policy adjustments will continue in the future.

on the evening of september 30, beijing issued eight new policies for the property market: reducing the number of years for non-beijing residents to pay social security when buying a house. non-local residents who purchase commercial housing within the fifth ring road must pay social insurance or personal income tax for three consecutive years or more before the date of purchase; those who purchase commercial housing outside the fifth ring road must pay social insurance or personal income tax. the number of years is adjusted to be paid continuously for 2 years or more before the date of purchase.

in addition to relaxing purchase restrictions, various places are establishing systemic measures to promote real estate recovery. all 13 districts and cities in jiangsu province have established a housing ticket resettlement policy system to guide various localities to further expand the supply of new housing, guide real estate companies to moderate profit sharing, coordinate the use of support policies such as house purchase subsidies and tax exemptions, and promote the "replacement of old housing with new" housing. get results consistently. zhengzhou, henan province issued the "zhengzhou existing housing transaction settlement fund management measures" to support "transfers with mortgages, provident fund loans and commercial loan portfolio loans".

looking back at the last round of strong real estate stimulus, which started with the monetized shantytown reform in 2015, this is essentially the "chinese version of qe." recently, some economists called for a 10 trillion stimulus. this is the backbone that will determine the future direction of china's real estate. strength.

the effects of the policy still need time to be digested, and the best time to do so is the upcoming national day holiday.

"golden nine and silver ten" is the traditional peak season for real estate sales, but this year's performance is quite disappointing.

according to the real estate-related data released by the national bureau of statistics in mid-september for august and the first eight months, the performance of various indicators is not good. we have mentioned in the previous article "with three months left, will the property market turn around this year?" 》 analyzed that although the complete data for september has not yet been released, the overall data is not optimistic. this is also an important reason for the introduction of central policies at the end of the month.

minsheng securities research report shows that last week (9.23-9.27), the transaction area of ​​commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities improved slightly month-on-month, but the quality of the "golden nine" is still insufficient. the 926 politburo meeting pointed out that "it is necessary to promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize", releasing it has given a strong signal of real estate easing, emphasizing stabilizing supply, promoting demand, and promoting the stabilization of housing prices. it is estimated that there may still be room for additional real estate policies in the fourth quarter.

on the following national day, stimulated by stock market sentiment and encouraged by top-down policies, it is very likely that you will walk into a long-lost sales office.

some real estate projects have already begun to warm up. on september 28, a poster circulated in the market showed that a project under nanjing china merchants real estate launched a "buy a house and get stocks free" activity, with up to 200,000 yuan in stock funds. owners can buy stocks based on their own experience, and the stock principal is provided by project subsidies. .

the linkage between the stock market and the real estate market may be an effect that the policy hopes to achieve. people will consume only when they have money, and the biggest consumption in china is undoubtedly the purchase of houses. once the houses are restarted, the upstream and downstream chains will be activated, thus providing support for economic recovery. inject strong power.

just before submission, the real estate agent mentioned above contacted me again and arranged to meet with the landlord during the national day to discuss the price. “don’t worry, the policy has just come out and the landlord has not yet bottomed out, so the price can still be negotiated. "

i am also curious whether, with such a positive stimulus policy, the quality of the "golden nine and silver ten" can be increased during the national day.