an in-depth observation from a media person: overnight, real estate has been “turned upside down”
2024-09-30
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except for real estate practitioners, no one will pay more attention to the trends of this market than the media, especially on september 29, 2024.
in the evening of the same day, the central bank and the state administration of financial supervision launched a series of real estate policies, including: lowering existing mortgage interest rates, lowering the minimum down payment ratio for second homes, extending the policy period of "financial article 16" and other policies, and optimizing refinancing policies for affordable housing.
subsequently, the six major state-owned banks collectively issued an announcement on the interest rate adjustment for existing housing loans; first-tier cities such as shanghai, guangzhou, and shenzhen quickly adjusted relevant policies. guangzhou even explicitly canceled purchase restrictions in an all-round way, becoming the first first-tier city to completely withdraw from the purchase restriction policy. .
the ministry of housing and urban-rural development made a major statement to "make every effort to promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize", and the china real estate association issued an initiative to the entire industry to launch a "100-city commercial housing promotion activity"... the benefits are heavy and intensive, hitting the market in waves, affecting the entire industry. the industry has pushed to a new historical node.
there are three reasons for saying this:
first, the general environment has changed.
since 2020, the external environment has become increasingly turbulent, posing unprecedented challenges to the global economy. the outbreak of the covid-19 epidemic has not only severely impacted the economies of various countries, but also triggered a series of chain reactions such as supply chain disruptions and reduced consumer demand.
in the past two years, under the background that the domestic and international environment has not significantly improved, a series of new policies have continued like a surging river, but they seem to be just scratching the surface and unable to touch the real pain points of the market. the real estate market remains indifferent and sluggish.
but now, the status quo is about to change.
internationally, the fed's interest rate cut means that the monetary policy tightening cycle is shifting to an easing cycle.
domestically, the political bureau of the cpc central committee held a meeting on september 26 to analyze and study the current economic situation and plan the next step of economic work. the timing of this politburo meeting is very rare.
as usual, meetings of the political bureau of the cpc central committee with the theme of economic work are mainly held in april, july and december to plan the economic work after the beginning of the year, the second half of the year and the coming year respectively. in addition, the meeting in october may also involve irregular work. economic themes. instead of waiting for the october and december meetings, we analyzed and studied the current economic situation in advance at the september meeting and planned the next step of economic work, which highlighted the importance that the central government attaches to the current economic situation and macro policies.
people visit the zhanqiao scenic area in shinan district, qingdao. image source: xinhua news agency
it is particularly worth noting that the politburo meeting pointed out that efforts should be made to complete the economic and social development goals and tasks for the whole year, and for the first time proposed "promoting the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize" to face the weakness of the real estate market. this is enough to show that, as a pillar industry of the national economy, real estate has reached a critical period that is not allowed to fall further. this not only protects the property market, but also stabilizes the economy.
at that time, dong ximiao, chief researcher of the china merchants association and part-time researcher at the institute of finance of fudan university, said in an interview with fengkou finance: the "policy bottom" of the real estate market has appeared.
second, confidence is improving.
from the sudden joint press conference held by the central bank, the state administration of financial supervision and the china securities regulatory commission on september 24 to announce cuts in reserve requirements, interest rates, existing mortgage interest rates and down payment ratios for second homes, to the politburo meeting on september 26 to set the tone for economic work, real estate the market "stopped falling and stabilized" signaled, and discussions about real estate in the market increased significantly. with the rapid implementation of a series of "big bombs", the expected end of the real estate market will surely improve and boost.
image source: people's bank of china website
take first-tier cities as an example. on the evening of september 29, the ministry of housing and urban-rural development held a party group meeting and emphasized “supporting cities, especially first-tier cities, to make good use of their autonomy in regulating the real estate market and adjust housing purchase restriction policies according to city-specific policies.”
subsequently, shanghai adjusted its purchase restriction policy, housing credit policy, tax policy, etc.; guangzhou clearly canceled the purchase restriction and became the first first-tier city to completely withdraw from the purchase restriction policy; at the same time, shenzhen also optimized the zoning housing purchase restriction policy and the minimum down payment ratio for the first home is adjusted to 15%, etc.
this move by first-tier cities will help bring into play the driving effect of large cities and fully boost market confidence.
"from the perspective of population size, new citizens, housing demand potential, etc., housing prices in first-tier cities should not have fallen so sharply, but second-hand housing in first-tier cities has fallen the most this year, which is unreasonable." guangdong provincial urban planning institute housing policy research li yujia, chief researcher of the center, said that, therefore, to stop the decline and stabilize, we should start from first-tier cities and drive the property markets in the three major metropolitan areas to stop the decline and stabilize. in this way, nearly half of the national property market has stabilized.
other practical measures, such as lowering existing mortgage interest rates and lowering the minimum down payment ratio for second homes... all of this information is undoubtedly sending a signal to the market: the property market has really changed, please come back with confidence.
third: "new signs" appear.
on the supply side, new situations have also emerged. on september 28, a real estate company in henan announced a price increase of 2%. previously, many real estate companies in sichuan announced that they would "raise the unit price of residential projects for sale by 2%", and many real estate companies in chongqing officially announced "comprehensive recycling discounts" .
picture transferred from: dahecai cube
although the price increases of the above-mentioned real estate companies are not the majority in the market and are regarded by the industry as a way to "urge" home buyers to "make a decision", they have still attracted widespread attention.
"the confidence of real estate companies is starting to come back." yan yuejin, deputy director of shanghai eju real estate research institute, said that although it is an individual property, under the current market situation, such cases can fully represent new trends and new signs in some industries.
"this shows that under the signal of stopping the decline and stabilizing, the sales actions and pricing strategies of real estate companies have quietly changed." yan yuejin said.
it is worth noting that recently, many poly projects have also launched "price guarantee" activities during the "golden nine and silver ten" periods, involving real estate in wenzhou, xi'an, sichuan, jinan, chengdu, guangdong and other cities.
liu shui, corporate research director of the zhongzhi research institute, said that home buyers purchase commercial housing not only for their own use, but also for value preservation and appreciation. currently, house prices in many cities have dropped significantly, and buyers are reluctant to enter the market. if the "guaranteed price" is promised, it will dispel home buyers' concerns about falling house prices and help de-market the project.
in addition, poly, as the current leading real estate company, ranks first in the current commercial housing sales rankings and plays a leading role in implementing the spirit of the politburo meeting. and as the clarion call for the property market to "stop falling and stabilize" sounds, this trend of price guarantees and price adjustments may continue to expand.
(popular news·fengkou finance reporter zhang tingwang)
