2024-09-29
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on september 29, government bonds of all maturities fell sharply. the 10-year treasury bond has risen to a maximum of 2.26%, and the current adjustment range has exceeded 25 bp; the 30-year treasury bond has risen to a maximum of 2.43%, and the current adjustment range has exceeded 30 bp. judging from previous bond market adjustments, potential redemption pressure on the retail side has always been a concern for the market. on september 29, a bank financial manager told reporters: "i don’t see any redemption pressure yet.。”
according to the latest data provided by puyi standard, as of september 29, the total number of bank financial management products in existence was 40,650, a decrease of 0.84% from the end of last month; the total existing scale was 29.22 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.30% from the end of last month.
industry insiders believe that while the bond market adjustment may continue, the market should indeed remain vigilant about the wave of redemptions of financial products, but there are not enough driving factors for the trend change of the bond market to turn from bullish to bearish, at least for now. in addition, in this round of bond market adjustments, insurance and debt funds may also face greater disturbances due to their previous allocation of more long-term bonds.
since september 24, it has taken less than a week for the shanghai composite index to reach 3,000 points from 2,700 points. at the same time, the bond market was undergoing a "sharp decline."
on september 29, the 10-year government bond active bond "24 interest-paying treasury bond 11" rose to a maximum of 2.26%. calculated from the lowest point of 2.00% on september 24, this round of adjustment has exceeded 25 bp; the 30-year government bond it also rose from the lowest point of 2.10% on september 24 to today's highest point of 2.43%, with an adjustment range of more than 30 bp.
the reporter noticed that since september 27, the ministry of finance’s 2024 ultra-long-term special treasury bonds (sixth issue) (30-year period), which have been listed for trading since september 27, have also experienced breakthroughs recently. the weighted bid yield of this bond is 2.19%. in the interbank market, the latest transaction yield of "24 special treasury bond 06" today was 2.45%, exceeding the issuance interest rate by 26 bp.
"such a rapid decline this week is relatively rare." guosheng guoshou yang yewei's team analyzed, looking back at the several bond market changes in the 10-year and 30-year treasury bonds since 2012 that have been adjusted more significantly in four trading days than this time, it can be seen that, compared with the past few times,before this adjustment, interest rates did not have a period of accumulation of rising potential, but began to rise directly, indicating that this adjustment is more sudden.。
the debon fixed income lupin team wrote: “the ultra-long bond bull market in the past year has not only increased the number of investors in hybrid funds among investors in ultra-long bond spot bonds, but also in tl government bond futures, the types of investors have also changed from traditional bond investors have spread to various types of private equity and foreign capital, and the correlation between stocks and bonds has become increasingly obvious.”
judging from the trend of yields to maturity of government bonds of various maturities in the past three years, the bond market has generally experienced two rounds of relatively large adjustments. the first round will roughly occur from november to december 2022, and the second round will roughly occur from august to september 2023.so, what’s different about this round of bond market correction?
china merchants fixed income zhang wei's team analyzed that in the first round of bond market adjustment, strong expectations for optimization of epidemic prevention and control and relaxation of real estate policies impacted the bond market, and the emergence of negative feedback from financial management redemptions intensified the bond market adjustment. subsequently, the central bank increased its net investment in the open market, the bond market gradually stabilized, the net loss rate of financial management gradually fell, and the selling pressure eased.
the second round of bond market adjustment was mainly driven by strong expectations of real estate relaxation. the team analyzed: "after the interest rate cut in august 2023, the convergence of funds and the intensive introduction of real estate policies triggered adjustments in the bond market. in september, economic fundamentals recovered steadily, and rising expectations for economic recovery also brought negative disturbances to the bond market. but in october, real estate sales weakened again, and the market began to have disagreements about the sustainability of the real estate recovery. as funds continued to converge, interest rates became volatile and stopped rising. "
yang yewei's team believes that after several sharp increases in interest rates in the past, interest rates have shown a phased decline or steady fluctuation. except for november 2022, when interest rates fluctuated after a rapid increase, in the remaining times, after interest rates exceeded this increase within 4 trading days, they fell slightly in the subsequent stages. “judging from experience, there are doubts about the periodic and sustained intensity of interest rates after a rapid adjustment.”
in the team’s view, although a-shares are in a bull market, in terms of their impact on the bond market, the “stock-bond seesaw” is not always true. "relatively speaking, if it is driven by changes in fundamentals, it will generally show a 'stock and bond seesaw', which is mainly due to the positive correlation between corporate profits and interest rates. but if it is driven by capital, that is, driven by loose liquidity, then there will often be a bullish pattern of stocks and bonds. this is because loose liquidity will simultaneously increase stock market valuations and lower bond interest rates. therefore, the key lies in the transmission of current policies to subsequent fundamentals, which is the medium-term decision for stocks and bonds. bulls are also the key to the 'stock-bond seesaw'."
judging from previous bond market adjustments, potential redemption pressure on the retail side has always been a concern for the market. on the afternoon of september 29, a bank financial manager told reporters: "i haven't seen any redemption pressure for the time being."
according to data provided by puyi standard, as of september 29, the total number of bank financial management products in existence was 40,650, a decrease of 0.84% from the end of last month; the total existing scale was 29.22 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.30% from the end of last month.
yang yewei’s team said that due to the very rapid market adjustment and taking into account the certain coupon income during the long holiday,there is no obvious redemption pressure before the holiday, but we need to continue to observe after the holiday.。
yang haiping, a researcher at the securities and futures research institute of the central university of finance and economics, said in an interview with reporters: "as the bond market adjustment is likely to continue, wealth management companies must be wary of the redemption wave of wealth management products. they must carry out solid and in-depth investor communication. work and explain clearly to investors that the bond market adjustment may continue, but there are not enough driving factors for a trend change such as a bull market to a bear market, at least for now.”
the debon gushou lupin team believes that the current structure of the bond market is relatively stable, and the conditions for large-scale redemptions may not exist. first of all, after the adjustment in 2023, the net value curve management of financial management is more stable; secondly, under the influence of "deposit relocation", the current proportion of cash in the hands of financial management is relatively high; in addition, the overall duration of financial management has basically not deviated excessively from its own metric management. it is still worth noting that the duration of fund types has been enlarged relatively much in this round of interest rate bond bull market.
zhang wei's team also said: "in the short term, there is redemption pressure on debt funds, and the debt funds have previously allocated more long-term bonds, which will cause negative disturbances to long-term bonds in the short term." at present, the net loss rate of wealth management is still on the low side, net redemption pressure from residents and businesses is limited. the debt market leverage ratio is not high, so there is not much pressure to deleverage. bank allocations remained cautious from august to september and did not significantly increase duration. when the bond market adjusts, banks are expected to increase their own allocations, thereby stabilizing the bond market. therefore, it is judged that in this round of adjustment, the upward risk of long-term bonds is controllable, and institutions with stable liabilities can gradually lay out the adjusted allocation value of long-term bonds.
it is also worth mentioning that the lupin team believes that under the current situation,perhaps the cost constraints of insurance are more important than the impact of financial management and fund redemption feedback.. according to the team's calculations, since the beginning of the year, investment net buying has led the way, showing a signal of a gradual shift from major banks and rural commercial banks to insurance.
“it can be seen that the current points of around 2.20% and 2.40% for 10-year and 30-year government bonds have exceeded the average holding cost line of insurance from august to september (2.13% and 2.30%), and from august to september it is this is the time period when insurance significantly increases its positions in ultra-long bonds. from august to september this year, insurance’s net purchases of long-term treasury bonds/ultra-long treasury bonds accounted for 58% of the total this year,” the team analyzed.
to judge the subsequent trend of the bond market, zhang wei's team believes that the sustainability of the impact of strong expectations on the bond market remains to be seen. first, it depends on whether the economy recovers as expected, and secondly, it depends on the negative feedback of short-term bond market redemptions.
yang haiping told reporters: "according to current observations, at the policy level, there are still a number of policies that are good for the economy are being brewed. especially in terms of fiscal policy, a wave of stronger fiscal policies should be on the way. and the upward momentum of the stock market has not there are signs of weakening, which means the pressure on bond markets is likely to continue.”
he believes that there is not enough support for the judgment that the bond market will turn from a "bull market" to a "bear market". the characteristics of my country's bond market are that bears are short and bulls are long. to fight the economy, monetary policy needs to continue to be loose to promote the reduction of financing costs for the real economy. after the federal reserve entered the interest rate cut channel, there is room for downward interest rates in my country. these are counter-evidences for the view that the bond market has turned from bullish to bearish.
zhou guannan's team at huachuang securities believes that macro-financial increases will boost demand expectations, and the short-term focus will be on additional fiscal increases and real estate transaction performance. "in the future, fiscal stimulus is expected to be increased to boost investment and consumer demand; core first-tier cities that are still enforcing home purchase restrictions are also expected to further loosen restrictions, coupled with the reduction in the down payment ratio for second homes and the expectation that housing prices will 'stop falling and stabilize' , october focuses on the intensity of implementation of real estate policies and finance, as well as the verification of policy effects on the real estate transaction and demand side.”
lu pin’s team believes that fiscal policies that are more likely to be implemented may include trillion-level special government bonds and hundreds of billions-level local government special bonds. the direction may include bank equity injection, local government implicit debt disposal, limited consumption stimulation, etc. in terms of amount, it may not exceed the expectations of many debt investors.
in addition, in their view, even after taking into account the implementation of many policies, at present, after all, we are still in a cycle of rrr cuts and interest rate cuts. from the logic of pricing anchors and liability-side drivers, 10-year and 30-year treasury bonds the top is already more obvious. "the 10-year treasury yield is capped at 2.2% and the 30-year yield is capped at 2.4%."
yang yewei's team added that in the medium term, the current long-term debt has been adjusted to a higher level, but short-term risks have not yet materialized. it is recommended to be defensive in the short term and wait for opportunities to increase allocations.
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