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"i didn't expect them to be so stimulating."

——david tepper (american hedge fund manager)

text/ba jiuling

one positive line changes emotions, two positive lines change opinions, and three positive lines change beliefs.

four positive lines make people regret - regret not buying on the first positive line.

in the past week, the market index rose by a total of 12%, which is equivalent to a daily limit. yesterday, the gem index really reached the "high limit", ending with an increase of 10% on september 27. on september 27, the shanghai composite index rose 2.88% to close at 3087.53, and the shenzhen component index rose 6.71%.a-share trading volume reached 1.46 trillion yuan throughout the day, a three-year high.

investors' psychological threshold of 3,000 points was lost in july. then the index continued to fall for more than two months. in september, it once fell to 2,689 points. in just three days, 3,000 points were easily recovered.

the stock market is very popular, the circle of friends is even more lively, and jokes are flying everywhere.

the most exaggerated thing is that around 10:30 yesterday (september 27), some investors discovered that the transaction was abnormal, and the shanghai composite index suddenly turned into a horizontal line. according to media reports, there was a delay in the shanghai stock exchange's trading system at that time.

in the first hour after the market opened, the transaction volume of the shanghai and shenzhen stock markets was nearly 700 billion yuan, exceeding 300 billion yuan in volume compared with the previous trading day. the server was suddenly covered up. in fact, according to media reports, the number of investors going to securities companies to open accounts increased by 2-4 times this week, and the number of inquiries also increased by 6 times.

however, during more than half an hour of incompetent trading on the shanghai stock exchange, investors were not idle and turned around and rushed into the shenzhen stock exchange. the shenzhen component index suddenly rose to 5%.

we have seen this scene during double eleven, when we were competing for concert tickets, and when we were competing for national day train tickets on 12306, but we have never seen it in the stock market. so he contributed a lot of jokes and joy.

the data also reflects this extraordinary enthusiasm.

goldman sachs monitored that on september 24 alone, chinese stocks collectively recorded the largest single-day net purchases since march 2021.it was also the second-largest single-day net buying in the past decade, driven almost entirely by long buying.

no wonder even the usually calm analysts can't hold their tongues.

on the evening of september 26, citic securities published an article overnight. the title was just one word: "qian", which attracted a lot of attention. foreign capital, which has always been more calm and restrained than domestic ones, has also been infected.

morgan stanley said it has a positive attitude towards china's stimulus policy; goldman sachs believes that it has seen the fomo mentality of fear of missing out on rising prices in china, and the market consensus has begun to change. this time it may not be a contrarian trade.

the so-called fomo psychology, in common parlance, is "fear of missing out."

the most positive one is david tepper, the hedge fund tycoon and american billionaire. he has suggested that investors "buy all" china-related assets. he himself will make a large bet on chinese assets: "i have "i thought the fed's actions last week would lead to china easing monetary policy, but i didn't expect their stimulus to be so strong."

although the boss's words may sound good, in the second quarter of this year, his hedge fund held most of the shares of the chinese company it purchased earlier this year. in other words, it has been holding the shares for a long time and has been waiting to rise for a long time. it is a case of letting others join in its own fire. add oil.

now, there is only one trading day left before the start of the national day holiday. if nothing else, september will have a big positive line to change the previous decline and make a good start for october.

everyone knows why the stock market is soaring.

zhao jian, the founding director of the xijing research institute, described the current situation as “an epic scene in which central government mothers hand out red envelopes and investors receive the red envelopes in a frantic stampede.”

many people agree that the starting point of the "bull market" is september 24.

on that day, the top leaders of china's three major financial departments - the central bank, the financial supervision bureau and the china securities regulatory commission - gathered together and issued a series of loose new policies with "lowering the required reserve ratio" as the vanguard. among them, the policy on the stock market was the most "unexpected". for details, see "9·24" new deal: reducing mortgage loans is no surprise, but saving the stock market is the focus? 》

on september 26, the top management added another fire. the political bureau of the cpc central committee held a meeting to analyze and study the current economic situation and plan the next economic work. it is worth mentioning that the meeting was held significantly in advance.

traditionally, such meetings are often held in april, july, november or december. tao chuan, chief economist of the minsheng securities research institute, wrote that the last time economic issues were discussed in a non-traditional month was in 2020. by october 2016 and 2018, it was clear that this meeting was important and unusual.

the full text of the conference draft is only 1,170 words, which is about half the length of previous issues. tao chuan simply summarized it as: "economic pragmatism and policy change."

based on various opinions, this meeting is a formal "official endorsement" and specific supplement to the content at the press conference on september 24, rising from the specifications of the three ministries to the level of a politburo meeting.

in addition, we also pay special attention to the sentiment of the capital market. in fact, judging from the timing, these policy releases are deliberately consistent with the capital market.

as luo zhiheng said: "the current policy introduction has significantly increased the intensity and accelerated the pace. judging from the release time of the draft, it is conducive to strengthening communication with the capital market and responding to market expectations."

the market caught on to this emotion and idea and quickly responded with a sharp rise.

although a-shares have been experiencing drought for a long time, this situation is actually not uncommon. known in the industry as "buffalo."the so-called buffalo refers to a situation where the stock market rises sharply in reverse when the economy is under pressure. the root of the buffalo is a rising market driven by policy stimulus.

taking the trend on september 26 as an example, financial commentator dr. ma hongman found that the shanghai composite index was relatively weak in early trading that day, and even turned green for a time. it was only after midday that the index began to rise step by step. the reason is that the official politburo meeting was held that afternoon and good news was released one after another, which rekindled the market's bullish sentiment.

in addition, one of the reasons for the historic outage of the shanghai stock exchange on september 27 is also that this policy red envelope mainly benefits high-dividend stocks, and such stocks account for a high proportion in the shanghai stock market. this is also a side reflection of the policy bull market. .

looking at history, the two recent buffaloes occurred in 2014 and 2019 respectively. what they have in common is that they both used rrr cuts and interest rate cuts as triggers.in terms of duration, the upward trend lasted for 12 months in 2014, and lasted for 4 months in 2019.

because of this, when we look at this market from a "buffalo" perspective, there are two unavoidable observation points.

▶▷first, it depends on whether the release of policy dividends can be sustained, as well as whether everyone's attitude toward the policy and their trust in the policy can continue.

▶▷second, the rise and fall depend on the excitement of the market, that is, the trading volume.

these two points are mutually responsible and achieve each other.

therefore, if you also want to ask how long the stock market can continue to rise, you are actually asking what other favorable policies have been introduced and whether their gold content can "support" the continued rise.

in addition, we are also concerned about what opportunities we, as ordinary investors, can seize.

we will give the following questions to several leaders to answer respectively.

01#

how long can the stock market continue to rise?

this round of rising market prices for a-shares should be positioned as a reversal and can be interpreted from two levels.

◎ first, the superficial driving force for this round of rise is policy.

the 9·24 policy package focuses on stabilizing real estate, promoting consumption, and stabilizing the stock market. it is highly targeted and powerful enough, demonstrating the management's determination to stabilize growth and effectively reversing the market's pessimistic expectations. a-shares responded big rise.

structurally, the real estate chain, large consumer goods, non-bank finance and central state-owned enterprises with low price-to-book ratios, as direct beneficiaries, have led the recent gains. science and technology innovation-related sectors have low correlation with economic fundamentals, and their market performance lags behind.

value sets the stage and growth plays a role.now, the market has just begun to heat up, and the value sector will most likely continue to outperform the market for some time.

judging from the csi dividend index, there is still an increase of about 10 points from the previous high. looking at the rotation, there is a high probability that the value sector will take the lead in returning to the previous high, and then the growth sector will take over and rise, driving the index to continue its upward trend.

◎ secondly, the deeper driving force of this round of rise is changes in the funding mechanism.

for the stock market, the most important point of the "9·24" policy gift package is to open up the channel for central bank funds to support a-shares. the central bank has unlimited bullets. at this point, the risk of a-shares continuing to plummet has been basically eliminated. once institutional funds, especially long-term funds, no longer have any worries, it will be a matter of course to guide long-term funds into the market, and the results will be achieved quickly.

coupled with the central bank's sharp interest rate cuts, long-term funds also have strong incentives to look for high-yield assets. high-quality leaders in a-shares, especially assets with stable dividends, have become popular. the recent surge has been accompanied by institutional fund-raising.

from this perspective, the current market may last longer and be partially immune to fundamental interference.

even if fundamentals continue to be disturbed in the future, the rise in a-shares will remain sustainable with the support of long-term capital inflows. for this point, you can refer to the buffalo market in 2014-2015. of course, it will not be that crazy.

for investors, the most important thing at the moment is to abandon bear market thinking, hold shares patiently, and wait patiently for the rising market to be released.

for investors who hold a-share positions, whether it is 30% or 50%, they can hold it patiently for a while, and maybe they can enjoy the happiness of a short-term rapid rebound.

in october, we may see specific meeting feedback, which can then be fully verified and tracked.

now you can pay attention to two time nodes. the first time node is the last two trading days before the national day holiday, especially next monday’s trading day, when september pmi data will be released.

at this time point, the market's optimism may be stimulated, and it is necessary to observe whether there will be otc funds entering the market. because in the past year or so, every time a-shares rebounded, more funds were stimulated on the market, and there were few otc funds operating. therefore, the concentrated entry of otc funds can be used as an observation point to observe whether the rebound market can continue. .

the second time point is after the national day.

at this time, relevant policies will be implemented and collide with specific macro data. it is possible that market fluctuations will further intensify in the next month.

as for investment advice, looking at overall investment returns over the past year, global allocations are significantly better than a-shares. even if a-shares have a significantly higher trend in the future, the value and significance of global asset allocation should not be neglected. this is also my very important position logic.

the a-share market, which is currently experiencing a significant rebound, can continue to be optimistic in the short term.

the question that everyone is most concerned about now is undoubtedly whether these few days will become the starting point of a bull market?

our point of view is unimportant. we have repeatedly emphasized that "the situation is stronger than the people" because the economic downturn will force policy upgrades.

even if the worst happens, this policy upgrade is not the starting point of the bull market. then the next economic downturn will force the policy to upgrade again. with the upgrade of policy intensity, even asset inflation caused by water release will lead to an increase in asset prices. for unlevered investors, there is no additional cost to holding the stock, so the difference in the interim is simply the length of waiting.

under this expectation, reducing positions after each rise may reduce the pain of the roller coaster ride. but eventually there will be a time when the position is reduced at the foot of the bull market, and then it becomes the pain of being short. this is sweet at first and then bitter. similarly, if you do not reduce your position after each rise, you may repeatedly experience the pain of riding a roller coaster, but when the bull market really comes, there is no risk of going short. this is bitter first and then sweet.

although there is still controversy about the view that a-shares are casinos, investors and gamblers have one thing in common: if they want to win, they must first learn to take responsibility, especially the consequences of wrong decisions. is it to avoid the pain of "roller coaster" or to avoid the pain of "falling short"?

02#

what are the policy gift packages worth noting?

▶▷finance: the counter-cyclical intensity of finance has begun to be emphasized. this may be the place that best reflects the shift in policy stance. although the stock still emphasizes government investment, incremental policies are likely to be more biased towards people's livelihood and consumption.

▶▷real estate: this may be the most important change after last year's "housing is for living, not for speculation" policy. real estate content is no longer limited to risk warnings, but clearly requires "promoting the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize". in terms of volume control policies, , this time more emphasis is placed on "price".

▶▷capital market: it is not just about "boosting confidence", but actually "boosting the market." policy has taken a crucial step.

▶▷consumption: this may be the most important driver of the future economy. unlike previous meetings, there was not much discussion on investment and industrial policies at this meeting. whether it was stabilizing housing prices and stock markets, grassroots "three guarantees", paying close attention to "employment", or promoting the private economy, supporting elderly care, and creating new business formats, the ultimate goal is to make consumption better.

unexpected loose monetary policies, such as flooding, boosted a-shares and hong kong stocks, and more importantly, enhanced investor confidence. next, the market will focus on further fiscal policies, and it is expected that corresponding measures will be introduced in the short term.

a-shares and hong kong stocks have relatively low valuations. if the policy is successfully implemented and follow-up efforts continue, the chinese stock market is expected to see considerable gains.

all subsequent loan interest rate cuts will most likely be accompanied by a reduction in deposit interest rates, and a large part of the cost of stimulating the economy will be borne by savers who like to save money.

however, it is worth noting that the rmb exchange rate has not performed significantly and has not been boosted by today's favorable policies. the appreciation of the rmb brought about by the united states entering an interest rate cut cycle does not mean that the rmb has entered a deterministic appreciation cycle. the follow-up still requires the cooperation of economic data.