news

the political bureau of the cpc central committee held a meeting on september 26 to analyze and study the current economic situation and plan the next economic work. judging from the meeting draft, the central government’s tone for the real estate industry has undergone a major reversal.

the meeting pointed out that "to promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize, we must strictly control the increment, optimize the stock, improve the quality of commercial housing construction, increase the intensity of loans for "white list" projects, and support the revitalization of existing idle land. to respond to the concerns of the masses, adjust the housing purchase restriction policy, reduce existing mortgage interest rates, speed up the improvement of land, taxation, financial and other policies, and promote the construction of a new model of real estate development."

as soon as the news came out, real estate stocks soared. in the afternoon of september 26, the a-share real estate sector surged straight up, with many real estate stocks hitting their daily limit. hong kong real estate stocks also rose a lot. longfor group rose by more than 23%, vanke rose by more than 19%, and sunac china and china resources land rose. over 17%.

now, mr. mingyuan will highlight the key points.

the first thing to mention is “promoting real estate to stop falling and stabilize”

this year, the political bureau of the central committee held meetings in april and july respectively, but this was the first time that it made it clear that it wanted to "promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize."

in the past, it was "to promote the healthy development of the real estate market." this time, the wording has been changed, admitting that the real estate market is falling and must stop the decline, indicating that the central government's thinking on the development of the real estate industry has completely changed.

“to respond to the concerns of the masses,

adjust housing purchase restriction policy”

at present, except for four first-tier cities and tianjin, hainan, and zhuhai, which have retained purchase restrictions, other cities have fully liberalized them.

now that the central government has expressed its stance, it is expected that guangzhou and shenzhen will further relax purchase restrictions. guangzhou is likely to be the first first-tier city to fully relax purchase restrictions.

however, beijing and shanghai are special and the possibility of full liberalization is relatively small. especially in the core urban areas of beijing, it is unlikely that purchase restrictions will be lifted. however, it does not rule out the relaxation of purchase restrictions in other areas of beijing.

the relaxation of purchase restrictions in first-tier cities will have a positive impact on the property market. because first-tier cities have the strongest purchasing power and the strongest leading effect, if they can take the lead to stabilize, it will have a strong driving effect on other cities.

in addition to purchase restrictions, policies such as loan restrictions, sales restrictions, and price restrictions in first-tier cities are expected to be optimized and adjusted.

for example, beijing recently announced that it will cancel the distinction between ordinary residences and non-ordinary residences in due course. this move will further reduce the tax burden on housing transactions.

a few days ago, the central bank stated that it would "reduce the minimum down payment ratio for second home loans at the national level from 25% to 15%, and unify the minimum down payment ratio for first and second home loans."。

this is quite destructive to home buyers in first-tier cities, because a house in first-tier cities can easily cost several million. if the down payment ratio is reduced by 10%, it means that the down payment is hundreds of thousands less.

“strictly control increment and optimize inventory,

improve quality"

"strictly control the increment of commercial housing construction, optimize the stock, and improve the quality" is also proposed for the first time, which means that all localities will be required to strictly control the new supply of land and the supply of new houses on the market to alleviate inventory pressure.

at present, there is great inventory pressure in major cities. the inventory cycle of new homes for sale is about 20 months, and the existing inventory is even larger. moreover, many of the inventories from the previous two years are outdated products and are simply not competitive in the market. especially after the relaxation of planning in the past two years, the housing acquisition rate of many new houses can reach 100%‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍

therefore, in addition to strictly controlling the increase, we must also optimize the stock and improve the quality. it is a way to optimize supply and improve the quality of houses through "regulation".‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍

a few days ago, mingyuan jun communicated with the product manager of a benchmark real estate company. he said that he is currently applying to local governments for "regulatory adjustments" to existing projects, such as increasing the housing acquisition rate and enhancing product competitiveness.

regarding the existing idle land, the ministry of natural resources and the national development and reform commission have recently issued documents, officially announcing the launch of 18 measures to deal with the existing idle land. recently, a real estate company in guangzhou successfully surrendered land and recovered 12 billion yuan, and a real estate company in wuhan applied for more than 10 land adjustments. ‍‍‍‍‍

"implementing powerful interest rate cuts"

mortgage interest rates will continue to fall

the politburo meeting called for "lowering the deposit reserve ratio and implementing a powerful interest rate cut." the focus is on power, which shows that the central government believes that the previous interest rate cuts are not enough.

at present, our lpr is still maintained at 3.85%. the interest rate is too high. we want people to buy houses, but we are not willing to give up the profits. this time we finally realized this problem.

a few days ago, the central bank just announced that it would guide the loan market quotation rate and deposit interest rate to fall simultaneously. it is expected that the lpr quotation is expected to be reduced by 20-25bp as soon as october 20, which will in turn lead to further reductions in mortgage interest rates.