the collective limit-up, the highest of 30 centimeters, the signal of "stopping the decline and stabilizing" in the real estate industry has been sent out...
2024-09-26
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the top leaders set the tone for real estate again, and for the first time clearly stated that they would "promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize." the capital market responded quickly, and real estate stocks exploded across the board.
in terms of a-shares, as of the close of september 27, real estate (shenwan) soared 8.08%, ranking first in terms of growth. 32 stocks including greenland holdings, sunshine holdings, binjiang group, oct group, poly developments, and china merchants shekou hit the daily limit, while china fortune land development, rongsheng development, and joy city rose by more than 9%. a total of 85 stocks rose by more than 5%.
in terms of hong kong stocks, as of the closing, the real estate and construction sector rose by about 7.80%, longfor group rose by more than 30%, sunac china and xinhui group rose by more than 25%, and eight stocks including country garden, vanke and china resources land rose by more than 20%. greenland holdings, r&f properties, yuexiu properties and others rose by more than 15%. a total of 34 constituent stocks rose by more than 10%.
on september 26, the political bureau of the cpc central committee held a meeting. the meeting pointed out that it is necessary to promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize, strictly control the increase in commercial housing construction, optimize the stock, improve the quality, increase the loan issuance of "white list" projects, and support the revitalization of idle land. it is necessary to respond to the concerns of the people, adjust the housing purchase restriction policy, reduce the interest rate of existing mortgage loans, and speed up the improvement of land, fiscal and taxation, and financial policies to promote the construction of a new model of real estate development.
the industry believes that this shows the importance of stabilizing the real estate market to stabilizing the macro-economy and sends a positive signal.
chen wenjing, director of policy research at china index academy, said that today's politburo meeting placed real estate policy in a more important position. only when the real estate market stops falling and stabilizes can it better provide support for the stable operation of the macro economy.
yan yuejin, deputy director of shanghai e-house real estate research institute, believes that the "stop falling" here includes both the stop falling in transaction volume and the stop falling in transaction price. observing the transaction data of new and second-hand houses in various places since july, especially the data in august, it is actually facing new pressure. at the same time, various places generally reported that there is a gap in market demand, which has caused the market to face the risk of falling.
inventory data from the shanghai e-house real estate research institute in 100 cities across the country showed that in august, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 100 cities across the country decreased by 27% year-on-year, a significant increase from the decline in july; the sales cycle was 25.2 months, and it has exceeded the two-year sales level for seven consecutive months, which puts great pressure on the market.
in the second-hand housing market, the number of transactions in 22 key cities across the country fell by 3% from january to august, while the growth rate was positive from january to august last year; in terms of prices, the housing price index of 70 large and medium-sized cities across the country compiled by the agency showed that the month-on-month and year-on-year declines in the housing price index in august widened by 0.7% and 5.7% respectively.
"the signal of 'stopping the decline and stabilizing' has been sent out very clearly, requiring all regions to do a good job in stabilizing market transactions and prices. this also means that in the fourth quarter, all regions may continue to have heavy-duty additional policies to better promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize." yan yuejin believes.
the meeting also stated that "we must respond to the concerns of the people, adjust the housing purchase restriction policy, and lower the interest rates of existing mortgage loans." the industry believes that the current concerns of the people are the focus of policy efforts.
in terms of the interest rates of existing mortgage loans, on september 24, the central bank has clearly guided the reduction of interest rates of existing mortgage loans. it is expected that banks in various regions will take substantial measures in the short term. cric also predicts that the lpr quotation as early as october 20 is expected to be reduced by 20-25bp, which will further drive the central mortgage interest rate to move downward.
in terms of purchase restrictions, the industry expects that there will be optimized policies implemented. chen wenjing said that currently, the cities with purchase restrictions only include beijing, shanghai, guangzhou, shenzhen, tianjin and parts of hainan. it is expected that the purchase restrictions in beijing, shanghai and shenzhen will be further optimized and adjusted in the future, and the purchase restrictions in other regions such as guangzhou are expected to be fully relaxed. the greater efforts of beijing, shanghai and shenzhen to optimize the purchase restrictions will also help to play the leading role of large cities and boost market confidence.
cre also believes that guangzhou is the first city in the first-tier cities to fully lift restrictions on purchases, followed by shenzhen, while beijing and shanghai are unlikely to fully lift restrictions on purchases. in addition, policies such as loan restrictions, sales restrictions, and housing standards in first-tier cities are also expected to be optimized and adjusted. for example, beijing recently announced that it will cancel the distinction between ordinary and non-ordinary residential properties at an appropriate time, which will further reduce the tax burden on housing transactions.
in second- and third-tier cities, cric believes that demand-side policies will mainly focus on incentive aspects such as credit policies, old-for-new policies, and housing purchase subsidy policies. for example, the down payment ratio for second homes will be adjusted to the national lower limit of 15% as soon as possible, and the rules for determining the number of loan restrictions will be relaxed. another example is increasing housing purchase subsidies and strengthening housing ticket resettlement rewards and subsidies.
in addition, various taxes and fees, as friction costs in housing transactions, often have an impact on transactions. the chief researcher of the housing policy research center of guangdong provincial urban planning institute predicts that the individual income tax, value-added tax, developer land value-added tax, etc. involved in subsequent housing transactions are expected to be reduced or suspended.
cric also believes that this time it is expected to reduce various housing-related transaction taxes and fees such as stamp duty to promote housing consumption. individuals purchasing their only home will be exempt from stamp duty, and families purchasing a second home or a large-scale improved home will have an appropriate reduction in stamp duty. another example is shortening the period for exemption from value-added tax and personal income tax on housing transactions.
on the supply side, this meeting made it clear that "for commercial housing construction, we must strictly control the increase, optimize the existing stock, and improve the quality."
chen wenjing believes that this is different from the previous proposal of digesting the stock and optimizing the increment. in terms of increment, it emphasizes strict control, which means that in the future, the land supply and housing supply in various places will be promoted in accordance with the actual needs of the city itself, and the supply of various types of housing cannot be expanded blindly, or it will be based on the actual demand for housing. in terms of stock, it is necessary to optimize the stock, upgrade and renovate the existing stock housing, and change the planning to revitalize and utilize it, which may be an important direction.
li yujia also emphasized that "strictly controlling the increase" was proposed for the first time, which means oversupply and also means that new houses need to be destocked to ease inventory pressure. this is a tool to boost expectations and promote short-term stabilization. "optimizing the increase" requires, on the one hand, more efforts by developers to destock and increase the acquisition efforts of state-owned enterprises; on the other hand, it is necessary to adjust the supply structure according to market demand and increase high-quality housing that is popular in the market.
yan yuejin mentioned that "improving quality" means that the quality requirements for real estate construction will be increased. on the basis of the existing work of ensuring the delivery of houses, we must be quality-oriented and continue to do a good job in high-quality housing construction. cric also expects that it will promote high-quality residential construction, optimize the planning rules to increase the housing rate, moderately reduce the proportion of pre-sale funds for high-quality projects, encourage high quality and high prices, and no longer implement new housing price guidance.
it is worth mentioning that the meeting also mentioned the need to increase loan issuance for “white list” projects and support the revitalization of existing idle land.
chen wenjing said that the state financial regulatory administration recently disclosed that as of now, commercial banks have approved more than 5,700 "white list" projects, with an approved financing amount of 1.43 trillion yuan, supporting the scheduled delivery of more than 4 million housing units. the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism has made positive progress, and it is expected to increase efforts and deepen progress in the future to better play the role of the project financing "white list", improve the corporate funding environment, ensure project delivery, and further stabilize home buyers' expectations.
the industry believes that overall, fiscal and monetary policies will increase efforts to stabilize the economy, which is expected to stabilize residents' income and will also have a positive impact on the real estate market. if various real estate policy measures can be implemented more quickly, it may significantly restore market expectations and accelerate the bottoming out and stabilization of the real estate market.
(this article comes from china business network)
