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recently, the ministry of housing and urban-rural development released a set of data. in the first half of 2024, 1.128 million sets of affordable housing have been built and raised nationwide.it accounts for 66.2% of the annual plan.

another set of data shows that as of the end of 2023, about 5.73 million units of affordable rental housing have been planned to be built, completing 66% of the "14th five-year plan" goal.

behind these two sets of data, as various companies actively deploy in the field of rental housing,the scale of rental housing is still expanding rapidly.

at present, the industry has basically formed real estate companies, market-oriented leasing companies, state-owned enterprises, local urban investment companies, central enterprises, financial institutions, investment institutions, etc.a new situation of multiple agents running in parallel.

during the 14th five-year plan period, the country plans to raise funds to build 8.7 million units of affordable rental housing. as of the end of 2023, 66% of the target has been completed.

judging from the rental housing fundraising targets of various cities,guangzhou, shenzhen, jiangsu, shanghai and other provinces and cities have more than 400,000 units, cities such as beijing, chongqing, hangzhou, and xi'an have between 200,000 and 400,000 units, while cities such as wuxi, zhuhai, and shenyang have less than 100,000 units.

the progress of fundraising in various cities is also acceleratingas of the first half of the year, the target completion rate in shanghai and zhuhai exceeded 80%.by the end of 2023, the target completion rate for guangzhou, beijing, hangzhou and other cities will be 60%-70%.

in terms of actual market supply,among the core cities, shanghai and shenzhen performed best, with cumulative openings exceeding 100,000 units., far ahead of other cities.secondlyhangzhou, beijing, with a market size of 30,000 to 50,000 units.wuhan, chengdu, the development of rental housing started relatively late and the overall progress is relatively lagging, but combined with the current fundraising performance of the city, the supply may double in the short term in the future.

byshanghai, shenzhentaking the two cities with the largest absolute supply of housing into the market as an example, we analyze the trends and growth rates of guaranteed rental housing and market-oriented housing over the years and find thatthe scale of rental-guaranteed housing entering the market is almost approaching that of market-oriented housing.

specifically, starting from 2021,shanghaithe three-year compound growth rate of market-oriented housing supply is about 12.2%.the compound growth rate of guaranteed rental housing has reached 78.9%, also inshenzhenthe three-year compound growth rate of market-oriented housing supply is about 6.3%.the rate of rent-secured housing reached 43.0%.

this data indirectly reflects that under the current shift in top-level regulatory logic, rent-guaranteed housing has become the main development target of the rental industry.

driven by the deep participation of local state-owned enterprises, the scale of the industry has achieved immediate results. as of august this year,the market share of rent-guaranteed housing in shanghai and shenzhen is close to half., an increase of nearly 20-30 percentage points compared to 2021. 

companies are accelerating their layout of rental housing through additional land investment and new projects.

from january to september 2024, a total of 98 leased land transactions were completed in 22 typical cities, with a total land area of ​​3.0184 million square meters.among them, there are 12 plots of land for pure rental housing, with a land area of ​​477,100 square meters, accounting for about 15.8%. these plots are mainly located in cities such as ningbo, suzhou, shanghai, nanjing, tianjin and fuzhou. the transaction area in ningbo is the highest at 193,300 square meters, followed by suzhou at 156,000 square meters. in terms of land acquisition entities, the 12 plots of land for pure rental are mainly local state-owned enterprise platform companies, followed by industrial investment companies.

in addition to pure leasehold land,76 plots of land for the construction of rental housingthe land area is 2.5413 million square meters, accounting for about 84.2%.

compared with the same period last year, at a time when reconstruction is the dominant method for raising affordable rental housing, the land area in the land investment market has only declined by about 30% year-on-year, indicating thatsome companies still maintain a certain enthusiasm for investing in new properties, especially state-owned platform companies and industrial investment companies.

according to incomplete statistics from cric long-term rental,in the third quarter of 2024, a total of 44 new rental housing projects were put into operation in 22 key cities, providing a total of more than 16,000 units of housing., of which 36 are new construction projects, involving about 14,000 housing units, and 8 are stock reconstruction projects, involving about 2,000 housing units. in terms of regional distribution, these projects are still mainlylocated in first-tier cities such as shanghai and shenzhen and core high-level second-tier cities such as hangzhou。

in terms of the performance of the operating entities, shenzhen dapeng talent housing, changsha chengfa xingjia, guangzhou nansha talent residence, etc.local state-owned enterprise platform companies are accelerating their localized layout.real estate developers such as poly, vanke, china merchants, and longfor continue to increase their layout of rental housing across the country and continuously expand their own participation models.

the participation model of real estate enterprises is mainly based on the government-enterprise cooperation model.taking longfor as an example, the land acquisition company of jingfa longfor guanyu wuhan derui building store is wuhan jiangxia jingfa investment group, longfor longzhi precision manufacturing, a subsidiary of longfor longzhi manufacturing, provides construction services, and longfor guanyu provides operation and management services. this model can give full play to the advantages of both parties. the state-owned enterprise platform with policy and resource advantages is responsible for fundraising, and market-oriented enterprises with mature experience are responsible for construction and service operation and management, thereby realizing the rapid implementation of the rental housing project. 

it is worth noting that in addition to accelerating the layout of rent-guaranteed housing through new land investment and new projects,still continuing to deepen brand construction, especially those dominated by local state-owned enterprises or local private enterprises.

during the 14th five-year plan period, affordable rental housing, as the main force of new housing supply, involves a huge scale and many participants. currently, most companies combine their own actual conditions to formulate corresponding strategies first, and then enter this track. their participation methods may be through new construction, development and operation, or through the acquisition and transformation of existing stock, or through pure light asset service output. but no matter what the method, under the current wave of continued increase in the supply of affordable rental housing, companies are adapting to the market and increasing development at their own pace.

we believe that with the continuous favorable guidance from the top on rental housing and the fundraising target of the 14th five-year plan gradually coming to an end, the actual market entry volume in the short term is expected to enter a stage of explosive growth. with the support of policies and resource advantages, local state-owned enterprises or platform companies will further participate deeply in the development of rental housing, and their autonomy will be greater.