major policies stimulate the continuous rise of real estate stocks, and all parties in the real estate market are waiting for the details to be implemented
2024-09-25
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"the salesperson has received a lot of inquiries from customers in the past two days." before the national day, major new policies were implemented in the real estate market, and home buyers in shenzhen were quick to respond.
at a press conference held by the state council information office on september 24, pan gongsheng, governor of the people's bank of china, announced a number of new real estate policies. the most exciting policy for market sentiment was that the interest rate on existing mortgage loans would fall and the minimum down payment ratio would be reduced.
a beijing homeowner whose second mortgage interest rate is as high as 5% excitedly told reporters after hearing about the new policy that this was exactly the policy he had been expecting, "if i can pay less on my mortgage, i will definitely go out and spend money."
the industry believes that lowering the interest rates on existing mortgages will effectively reduce residents' loan repayment burden, and families will have more disposable income for daily consumption, which will promote the prosperity of related industries and boost economic development; while lowering the down payment ratio for second homes will help lower the threshold for home purchases, help release improvement demand, and promote stabilization of the property market.
under the heavy positive news, the capital market responded quickly, and real estate stocks and bonds rose for two consecutive trading days. as of the close of september 25, real estate (shenwan) rose by 1.73%, ranking first in terms of growth, and five stocks including financial street, shirong zhaoye, and wantong development hit the daily limit; the hong kong stock real estate sector also ranked first among all industries with a 0.74% increase. in terms of real estate bonds, "h9 longkong 01" rose by more than 144%, and "h1 sunac 01" rose by 75%.
however, the impact of favorable policies on the property market is still being transmitted. several interviewed real estate company insiders revealed to reporters that the number of customers coming for consultation has increased, but the overall market reaction is not obvious yet, and they are still waiting for the implementation details of the policy.
promote second-hand housing transactions
in september 2023, the regulators pushed for a round of interest rate cuts on existing mortgages, but the scope and intensity of the cuts were limited. on the one hand, it only targeted first-home mortgages, and on the other hand, the interest rates after the cuts did not level with the interest rates of new loans. since 2024, the interest rate spread between new mortgages and existing mortgages has further widened, and many home buyers still choose to use their idle funds to repay mortgages.
industry analysts pointed out that before the interest rate cut in september, there were strong calls for a reduction in the interest rates of existing mortgages. in order to reduce the monthly payment pressure caused by high-interest mortgages, some homeowners sold their second-hand homes, causing second-hand housing transactions to continue to present a situation of "trading price for volume."
chen li, a real estate industry analyst at huafu securities, believes that the current reduction in the interest rate on existing mortgage loans is expected to accelerate the improvement of the phenomenon of selling pressure on second-hand housing, significantly improve the supply and demand relationship in the second-hand housing market, and accelerate the stabilization of housing prices in old communities.
in fact, shortly after the new policy was released, a shenzhen lianjia agency store in the longgang universiade center area facilitated a transaction.
"the two sides negotiated for five hours and finally the deal was done at around nine in the evening," said cao, the real estate agent of the above-mentioned house. the house is more than 80 square meters and is a must-have. before the policy was implemented, a deal facilitated by the store next door took 13 hours to complete, so a deal in five hours is considered fast.
this is the best school district house in longgang universiade center. manager cao said that the buyer's child will go to school the year after next, so he has never been in a hurry to buy a house, while the seller is in a hurry to change houses. in his opinion, this policy may be a catalyst for both parties to make a decision, which not only makes the buyer determined, but also makes the seller willing to make some concessions and change houses before the housing prices rise rapidly.
manager cao said that the buyer was only willing to pay 5.3 million yuan before, but the owner wanted 5.4 million yuan. the two sides had negotiated several times before, but failed to reach a deal. after the policy was announced yesterday, both sides made certain concessions and the deal was concluded at 5.36 million yuan.
there are also some positive signs in shanghai's second-hand housing market. the manager of a branch of a large chain real estate agency in hongkou district, shanghai, told reporters that after the new policy was released, customers were more active and willing to come out to view houses. moreover, under the new policy, it is generally felt that the market adjustment is basically in place and will not continue to fall. "next, we still have to look at the number of viewings over the weekend and the transaction data of the past week."
chen li also believes that another important impact of this reduction in existing mortgage interest rates is that it will effectively reduce residents' monthly mortgage payments. as the gap between mortgage interest rates and the rental-to-sale ratio narrows, it will become a signal that the real estate market is bottoming out and stabilizing.
on the demand side, in addition to lowering the interest rates on existing mortgages, the new policy also reduces the down payment ratio for second homes from 25% to 15%, unifying the down payment ratios for the first and second homes for the first time, and the down payment ratio has also dropped to the lowest level in history.
in the view of zhang bo, director of the 58 anjuke research institute, a lower down payment ratio means that home buyers need to bear a higher leverage ratio. if housing prices fall sharply again, it will directly affect home buyers' repayment of principal and interest, and may also further increase financial risks.
zhang bo believes that this also means that when implementing this policy, the regulatory authorities have a clearer judgment on the current real estate market, especially the long-term expectations for housing prices have become clearer. by strengthening this policy, the market recovery can be effectively accelerated.
after the favorable policy before the national day, manager cao has arranged a work plan, hoping to grasp the housing demand released after each policy. "we hope to invite as many people in the database who want to buy a house to come and see the house as possible. in addition, we are also communicating with the owners of the houses, hoping that they will set aside at least two days during the national day holiday for buyers to see the house."
policy details still to be implemented
the release of such a major positive news, on the one hand, reduces the monthly payment pressure of buyers who have already purchased a house, and on the other hand, it also lowers the threshold for buying a house, which may have a boosting effect on those who have already purchased a house or those who want to improve their living conditions and re-enter the market.
zhang bo believes that it is possible that some buyers will consider further improvement or buying new properties for their parents or children, or have diversified property purchase needs such as travel and retirement.
the marketing planning director of a fujian-based real estate developer revealed that on the afternoon of the day of the new policy, favorable policy dissemination was organized in various regions, especially for second home buyers among the target customer base. while emphasizing that the down payment for the second home would be reduced, customers were also informed that the interest rate on their existing loan could also be lowered, and that the loan cost was also decreasing, reducing their resistance to the previous feeling that the down payment had been reduced but the loan had increased.
on the day of the new policy, some customers already heard about it and took action. a real estate developer in east china received seven groups of visiting customers for a project in guangzhou, six of which were new customers.
"compared to normal days, the number of visitors has increased during the week," said the person in charge of the project, "but we need to continue to observe whether this is the norm or an isolated case."
the shenzhen market also received quite positive feedback. a relevant person in charge of longfor group's shenzhen-hong kong branch told reporters that as the threshold for buying a house continues to decrease, more customers with limited funds who want to buy a second house will buy a second house. in the past two days, sales staff have received a lot of customer inquiries. "the demand for buying and changing houses among shenzhen residents has not been fully tapped, and the new policy will usher in a small spring."
the response of shanghai's new home market is not so optimistic. many insiders of real estate companies interviewed said that the market performance of their projects has not improved significantly.
a relevant person in charge of a central enterprise's shanghai branch said, "customers will pay attention to this type of policy released by the central bank at the first time." perhaps because of the recent weather in shanghai, there are not many obvious reactions on various projects at present, and there is no change in visits and consultations. it still requires a period of observation.
the sales manager of a project located in the outer ring of shanghai also told reporters that the outer ring market is not good at present, and only a few customers come to consult. however, the specific reduction ratio of shanghai has not yet been determined, and the impact is not obvious. "but in fact, whether it is a low interest rate or a low down payment, because of unstable income, even if customers have the need to buy a house, they don't want to leverage so much."
second-tier cities are also waiting for the policy to take effect. the relevant person in charge of the above-mentioned east china real estate company in wuhan said that after the new policy came out, its wuhan projects were busy promoting the policy, and it is estimated that the effect will not be seen so quickly. if people want to view houses, they will definitely wait until the "national day" holiday.
a market manager of a central enterprise in zhengzhou also told reporters, "the new policy itself is mainly to solve some confidence problems. in fact, people will buy houses before they are due. the current mortgage interest rate is already quite cheap."
(this article comes from china business network)
