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▎ vasilis trigkas, visiting assistant professor of tsinghua university schwarzman college and member of the greek council on international relations source: taihe think tank

editor's note

why has the us economy turned sharply towards security in just five years? what is the absurd logic behind the us sanctions on china's shipbuilding industry? what consequences will this bring? phoenix reference compiled the speech of vasilis trigkas, a visiting assistant professor at tsinghua university schwarzman college and a member of the greek council on international relations, at the international relations forum of the 8th taihe civilization forum for readers.

qi siyuan believes that over the past five years, the us economic security policy has become increasingly harsh, the "small courtyard and high wall" has been further strengthened, and a more closed strategy has been adopted internationally, especially the continuous blockade and suppression of china. today, the "small courtyard" in the "small courtyard and high wall" has been continuously expanded into a large courtyard, and the "high wall" has become a higher wall. qi siyuan also pointed out that in addition to the previous chip embargo on china, the united states has now launched an investigation into china's shipbuilding industry. china's shipbuilding capabilities scare the united states, and they even think that china's shipyards are used by the people's liberation army navy. if china's shipbuilding capabilities are curbed or damaged, the costs will be immediately passed on to consumers around the world.

edited by qu gongze and li renkai

the following is qi siyuan's original speech:

▎peter navarro served as the director of the u.s. national trade council during the trump administration. he encouraged trump to implement trade protectionist policies and advocated imposing high tariffs on china.

in 2019, i was communicating with dr. peter navarro at the center for strategic studies in washington, d.c. in his speech, he mentioned that economic security is national security, and described his ideas about supply chain security and decoupling. after listening to this speech, i looked at everyone's reactions on twitter, such as what economists and american media said. as i expected, the washington post and the new york times immediately denied navarro's views and said that he knew nothing about the global economy, which was already a mild statement. and said that if the us government adopted his policies, it would be greatly weakened and the united states would suffer as a result.

what surprised us was that the biden administration did not reject most of navarro’s plans, they even increased their support for him.

next, their economic security policy will be more stringent. what peter advocated in the committee is "small yard and high wall". the chip situation mentioned earlier is a "small yard", that is, the united states has its own system in the "small yard" and has a dominant advantage. they believe that if a technology ban is issued against china, it will be a great thing for the national security of the united states.

what i see these days is that these "small courtyards" are expanding into larger courtyards, and the "high walls" are becoming higher walls.while we are discussing this here, asml is already considering a ban on older generation lithography machines to china.

▎on september 6, lithography machine giant asml issued a statement on its official website saying that the dutch government announced export controls on immersion duv lithography machines, which will take effect from september 7.

we can also see that the 301 investigation into chinese shipyards dates back to the beginning of 2024. the 301 investigation is not about the competitiveness of chinese shipyards, but the united states has such a perception that they believe that china's shipyards are used by the people's liberation army navy. the data is jaw-dropping.for every commercial vessel used to carry containers and bulk cargo produced by the united states, china could produce more than 200 if the united states could produce them domestically. this is definitely a huge difference in orders of magnitude.

▎comparison of annual new ship deliveries between china and the united states source: caixin

this, in my opinion, scares the us very much.because this can be said to be the first time in a hundred years that the united states has faced a competitor in the navy, or even an equal competitor.how to measure the strength of a navy? it can be divided into three parts:

the first is actual naval power. in this respect, china and the united states are equal. china has more ships and the united states has more aircraft carriers. the quality of chinese-made ships is also catching up rapidly.

second, china is also very scary to the united states in very critical areas, such as shipyards. china's potential in this area is constantly increasing. china's shipyard production accounts for 60% of the world's total, far exceeding the production of all shipyards in the united states or the west, and more than their combined production.

the third is naval logistics and naval bases. china lacks in this regard. the united states has 40 to 50 naval bases all over the world, which is what china lacks.

the second area i want to talk about is also the area that the 301 investigation is targeting, which is shipbuilding.europe is a very important participant in this because 55% of the global shipbuilding market is controlled by europe. if they want to target china's shipbuilding capabilities, they have to lobby european shipyards to withdraw their investments from china.

▎according to the russian satellite news agency, john molenaar, a republican congressman from michigan, said at a hearing on june 26 that china currently builds about 540 times as many ships each year as the united states.

if you view china's shipyards as a threat to the us naval power and us national security, i think this is a wrong view. in fact, china is geographically constrained and is clamped by the so-called "first island chain" of the united states. therefore, china's huge shipbuilding capacity is also controlled.

in addition, maritime transport and shipbuilding are global public products. the global inflation rate is rising.if china's shipbuilding capacity is curbed or damaged, the cost will be immediately passed on to global consumers. therefore, we should regard shipbuilding capacity as a global public product, and china's improvement in this regard will benefit the world.

▎international relations forum of the 8th taihe civilization forum source: taihe think tank