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how do you view this round of real estate credit support policies? industry insiders: the differentiated characteristics are very significant, and cross-bank mortgage transfers are still necessary

2024-09-24

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cailianshe news, september 24 (reporter peng kefeng)this morning, the state council information office held a press conference, at which pan gongsheng, governor of the people's bank of china, li yunze, director of the state financial supervision and administration, and wu qing, chairman of the china securities regulatory commission, introduced the relevant situation of financial support for high-quality economic development.

during the meeting, pan gongsheng said that the minimum down payment ratio for the first and second homes nationwide is unified at 15%; the central bank's funding support ratio for affordable housing refinancing has been increased from 60% to 100%. so, what do you think of the central bank's new policy on real estate credit support?

viewpoint 1: the minimum down payment ratio is reduced to 15%. encouraging rigid demand also means "increasing leverage"

this morning, pan gongsheng said that at the national level, there will no longer be a distinction between first and second homes, and the unified minimum down payment ratio will be 15%. local governments can formulate policies based on their own circumstances and independently determine whether to implement differentiated down payment ratio minimums within their jurisdictions. commercial banks determine specific down payment ratios based on customer risk profiles and willingness.

in this regard, a macro analyst of a securities firm told cailianshe reporters that reducing down payments is intended to encourage more people with rigid housing needs to "get on board" and further stimulate housing market demand. on the one hand, it can provide better credit support for the middle class with real housing needs, but on the other hand, a 15% down payment ratio also means a leverage ratio of 6.7 times. if the housing price remains unchanged, the leverage ratio of the housing buyers will further increase, and investors themselves need to make rational choices.

viewpoint 2: 100% central bank funding support for affordable housing refinancing means greater support for housing needs of low-income people

today, pan gongsheng said that the central bank will optimize the policy on affordable housing re-lending. the proportion of central bank funds support in the previously established 300 billion yuan affordable housing re-lending will be increased from 60% to 100%, enhancing market-oriented incentives for banks and acquisition entities.

in this regard, the above-mentioned macro analyst told cailianshe reporters that the target population of affordable housing is new citizens and low-income people in cities, and their housing prices are significantly lower than the market price, but there are corresponding restrictions. in the past, the 60% support ratio meant that the central bank took on 60% of the risk exposure of affordable housing loans provided by local commercial banks to the government, and the remaining 40% of funds and risks were borne by local commercial banks. a 100% support ratio means that commercial banks can "reimburse" 100% of the central bank after issuing loans, and the latter basically takes over all risks. this move is expected to increase the enthusiasm of local governments to develop affordable housing and better meet the housing needs of low-income groups.

the analyst believes that the central bank's intention is very clear from the above two policies, that is, to provide targeted and differentiated credit support policies for different groups of people. the reduction of down payment ratio is mainly for the middle-class people with rigid demand, and the policy of refinancing of affordable housing is mainly for low-income people.

viewpoint 3: mortgage transfer is more market-oriented but more difficult than reducing existing mortgage loans

today, regarding the inter-bank transfer of existing housing loans, pan gongsheng said that the transfer will be implemented within the bank in the initial stage, and the next step will be to consider whether inter-bank transfer is needed.

in this regard, lou feipeng, a researcher at china post bank, told cailianshe reporters that compared with the practice of uniformly reducing the existing housing loans of residents by about 59 basis points, converting existing housing loans into mortgages is obviously more market-oriented and can also better reduce the pressure of housing loans for homebuyers. however, objectively speaking, this method is obviously more difficult.

lou feipeng further stated that although there were voices in the market that reducing existing mortgage loans and transferring mortgages violated the spirit of the contract, from the current economic situation, such practices can reduce the economic pressure on residents and are indeed necessary to promote. transferring mortgages, especially inter-bank transfers, can effectively stimulate competition among banks, and home buyers can get the best choice. at the same time, in the future, it can be considered to directly add regulations in the contracts of residents' new home purchases that the mortgage interest rate can be floatingly lowered or directly transferred to mortgages if conditions are met, so as to better play the role of the market.

(cailian news reporter peng kefeng)
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