the interest rates of existing mortgage loans have dropped significantly. what is the impact on the property market? | lao jiang talks about housing
2024-09-24
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chao news client reporter jiang minhua
this morning, the central bank and other departments announced real estate finance policies such as lowering the interest rates on existing mortgages and lowering the down payment ratio for second mortgages, which can be described as heavyweight.
why is a new round of loose stimulus policies for real estate finance launched? it is no secret that the current real estate market is still sluggish and needs to be upgraded and strengthened.
according to the statistics of housing prices in 70 cities across the country, the sales prices of newly built commercial housing in first-tier, second-tier and third-tier cities in august fell by 0.3%, 0.7% and 0.8% respectively. other data show that the sales area of newly built commercial housing in the country fell by 18% year-on-year from january to august this year, of which the sales area of residential housing fell by as much as 20.4%. it can be seen that although a series of loose policies have been implemented in the early stage, including the cancellation of the lower limit of mortgage interest rates and the reduction of down payment ratios in may this year, the policy effect has gradually decreased in the past few months, and we look forward to a new round of stimulus policies.
the market has long called for a reduction in the interest rates of existing mortgage loans, and today it has finally been officially announced. this is obviously great news for mortgage holders. in fact, the interest rates of existing first mortgage loans were uniformly reduced last year, but it did not benefit existing second mortgage customers. the biggest beneficiaries of this reduction are undoubtedly existing second mortgage customers. of course, first mortgage customers before the mortgage interest rate adjustment in may this year will also benefit.
even if calculated based on an average drop of 0.5 percentage points, taking a 30-year equal principal and interest repayment method for a 2 million yuan commercial loan as an example, the monthly payment will be reduced by about 600 yuan, and the burden-reducing effect is visible to the naked eye. in fact, if the second mortgage was processed at the peak of the market in 2021, the current interest rate is still above 5%. if the interest rate drops to around the new mortgage rate (3.25%), the drop will be even more significant.
of course, lowering the interest rates on existing mortgage loans cannot directly boost new home sales. the beneficiaries will obviously not have the need to buy a house again just because the interest rate has been lowered and the monthly payments have been reduced, but this move will help stimulate consumption in other areas, thereby boosting the economy, and will naturally feed back to the property market in the end.
adjusting the down payment ratio for second home loans from 25% at the national level to 15%, which is exactly the same standard as the first home, is also a highlight of this policy. for a long time, the second home and the first home have implemented a "double standard" policy. the second home not only has a high interest rate, but also a high down payment ratio. for example, the down payment ratio for second home loans in hangzhou has long been maintained at 60%, and beijing even once reached 80%. the announcement that the down payment ratio for the first and second homes is the same is a very obvious signal, which means that improvement needs and rigid needs enjoy the same policy treatment. however, since the second home is generally for improvement needs and the total price of the house is relatively high, a down payment of 15% means a high monthly payment pressure. there are probably not many second home buyers in hangzhou who will really choose a 15% down payment, so the policy influence is naturally limited.
in addition, another policy with a significant impact on the real estate market was announced today. the central bank's funding support ratio for the 300 billion yuan affordable housing refinancing created by the people's bank of china in may was increased from 60% to 100%, enhancing market-oriented incentives for banks and acquisition entities. the purpose of this loan fund is to support local state-owned enterprises in purchasing completed but unsold commercial housing at reasonable prices, that is, the government purchases commercial housing to offset affordable housing. similar actions have been taken in various places before, but they generally face funding difficulties.
it is reported that the interest rate for affordable housing refinancing is 1.75%, which can provide financial support for local governments to purchase commercial housing. it is foreseeable that the government's purchase of commercial housing may accelerate in the future, and the market inventory pressure will be alleviated to some extent, which is conducive to changing market expectations.
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