taking over at high prices, chasing ups and downs! southern fund shi bo's "daylight fund" suffered a huge loss of 4.3 billion and received 400 million management fees
2024-09-24
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this personnel change quickly attracted widespread attention in the market, especially against the backdrop of the poor performance of the southern xingrun value fund he manages in recent years, and became the focus of discussion.at the same time, under the strategic layout of southern fund to promote the rejuvenation and professionalization of senior leaders, shi bo's career has also triggered people's deep thinking about his future development.
on september 21, 2024, the senior leadership team of southern fund was comprehensively adjusted. shi bo resigned as deputy general manager and focused on portfolio management. this personnel change quickly attracted widespread attention from the market, especially against the background of the poor performance of the southern xingrun value fund he managed in recent years, and became the focus of discussion. at the same time, under the strategic layout of southern fund to promote the rejuvenation and professionalization of senior leaders, shi bo's career has also triggered people's deep thinking about his future development.
in recent years, the performance of many southern fund products managed by shi bo has been lackluster, especially his heavy bet strategy has repeatedly failed, resulting in a sharp decline in the net value of the fund, causing huge losses to investors. the once highly respected star investment officer has gradually faded with the changes in the market environment. taking the southern xingrun value one-year holding period mixed fund as an example, since its establishment in 2021, the fund has accumulated losses of up to 4.3 billion yuan, and the fund size has also dropped sharply from the initial 15 billion yuan to less than 6 billion yuan. shi bo's "high-level takeover" strategy has aroused market doubts about his ability to operate.
figure: shi bo, manager of southern xingrun value fund
sunlight-based "nanfang xingrun value": from glory to darkness
shi bo has been in the public offering industry since 1998. with his rich investment experience and stable investment style, he has managed many star fund products.he is known for his investment strategy that combines growth and cycles. during the 2008 bear market and the 2015 stock market crash, shi bo's funds performed particularly well.the southern new premium fund achieved an annualized return of 71.36% during the stock market crash in 2015, while the annualized return of southern performance growth a also reached 59.49%.
however, in 2021, shi bo encountered a major setback in the management of the "daylight fund" highly anticipated by investors, the southern xingrun value one-year holding period mixed fund (hereinafter referred to as "southern xingrun value"). the "growth + cycle" investment concept he relied on in the past almost failed and failed to achieve the expected results. southern xingrun value was established on february 3, 2021, and it easily raised 15 billion yuan on the day of issuance, which was a model of the "daylight fund" at the time. however, since its establishment, the fund's performance has been declining and its scale has shrunk significantly.
figure 3. performance of southern xingrun value one-year holding mixed a over the years.as of september 20, 2024.
as of september 20, 2024, the cumulative net value performance of class a shares of southern xingrun value fund in the past 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, 2 years and 3 years was negative, and most of the time it underperformed the performance benchmark. the cumulative net value fell by 34.55%, and the current net value is 0.65 yuan, ranking 2087th among the 2,335 funds of the same type in the entire market, ranking at the tail. the cumulative net value of class c shares fell by 35.96%, and the current net value is 0.64 yuan. both class a and class c shares fell by nearly 40%, and the performance was not satisfactory.
if an investor subscribed on the day of the establishment of the "daylight fund" and held it until now, from the current net value level, shi bo needs to make southern xingrun value a/c rise by nearly 40% to allow the investor to realize a return on investment. however, looking back at the past net value performance, shi bo, the chief equity investment officer, may disappoint investors who expect to get their money back. since he took over the fund nearly three years ago, southern xingrun value a has only briefly maintained a net value of more than 1 yuan in a few trading days after its establishment, and most of the time it has been in the break-even range below 1 yuan, and has continued to fall. the poor performance has caused investors who once pursued shi bo to gradually lose confidence and choose to redeem to stop losses. the fund size has also shrunk from the initial 15 billion to 5.809 billion in mid-2024. compared with the highlight of the 10 billion "daylight fund" that year, the current performance can be described as "an old horse stumbles". the following table shows the changes in the scale of southern xingrun value (a and c combined) over the years.
data source:wind。 as of june 30, 2024
the overall loss exceeded 4.3 billion, and the management expenses still contributed 453 million
as of june 30, 2024, southern xingrun value has accumulated losses of more than 4.3 billion yuan since its establishment, but the company has collected management fees of up to 453 million yuan, accounting for nearly one-tenth of the losses. at first glance, this seems to make management fees and losses have a certain "linked" relationship. in fact, as of september 20, 2024, the net value of southern xingrun value fell by nearly 10% from june 30, resulting in further expansion of cumulative losses, and the company's management fee income has increased over time. although it is understandable to charge management fees when the fund is profitable, is it reasonable to charge management fees as usual when the fund is losing money? especially for funds like southern xingrun value that perform poorly in market declines, investors' doubts are particularly strong.
figure 1. the annual profit and loss statement of southern xingrun value one-year holding mixed fund. as of june 30, 2024.
chasing up and selling down, buying at high prices, the fund suffered heavy losses
as a one-year holding period fund, investors cannot redeem southern xingrun value during the closed period, which makes shi bo’s investment strategy during the closed period particularly critical.however, judging from the performance in 2021, shi bo's operations did not bring ideal returns to investors. instead, it was more like a typical case of "chasing up and selling down".
taking tencent holdings as an example, this stock was listed as the first largest holding by southern xingrun value in the 2021 mid-year report, with a holding ratio of 5.64% and a holding value of approximately 793 million yuan.after the fund is completed in february 2021, shi bo is likely to start gradually building a position in tencent holdings in february and buy it as the fund's largest holding at the end of april.however, tencent holdings' share price hit an all-time high of hk$698.58 on february 18, 2021, and then fell all the way to a low of hk$185.69 on october 28, 2022 before rebounding.
comparing the changes in fund holdings and stock price trends, shi bo established a position when tencent's stock price was close to its historical high, and significantly reduced his position by half in the third quarter of 2021. tencent holdings fell to the sixth largest holding of the fund, and in the fourth quarter it completely withdrew from the top ten holdings. at this time, tencent's stock price had fallen by nearly 50%. from this operation, shi bo is undoubtedly a "taker" - buying at a high stock price, and then leaving the market after the stock price was halved. it is roughly estimated that shi bo lost 300 to 400 million on tencent holdings alone.
figure tencent holdings hong kong stock price trend chart from october 29, 2020 to december 21, 2022
further analysis of the top ten holdings disclosed in the interim report of southern xingrun value in 2021 shows that, except for tencent holdings, the other nine stocks have fallen sharply within three months, six months, and nine months after the release of the interim report. this shows that after the fundraising of southern xingrun value was completed, shi bo's operation showed a typical "chasing up" behavior. however, due to changes in market style, shi bo failed to adjust his holdings in time, resulting in the fund taking over at a high level, and then suffering serious losses. the following table shows the rise and fall of the heavy holdings of southern xingrun value within three months, six months, and nine months after the disclosure of the 2021 interim report.
southern xingrun value suffered serious losses at the beginning of its establishment due to taking over at a high price, but this mistake did not cause shi bo to reflect deeply.he still continues his operating style of "chasing highs and selling lows".since the establishment of the fund on february 3, 2021, by observing the changes in the top ten heavily-weighted stocks of southern xingrun value, it can be seen that shi bo often buys when the stock price is high, trying to gain higher returns, and quickly cuts losses after the stock price falls.this kind of operation method is even worse than that of some retail investors.
take smic as an example. on june 30, 2023, southern xingrun value disclosed that the stock was the sixth largest holding. however, in the interim report on september 30, 2023, shi bo had reduced his holdings by half, but smic was still the seventh largest holding. in the report on december 31, 2023, smic completely withdrew from the top ten holdings. how did smic's stock price trend during this period?
since march 10, 2023, when the stock price was 42.56 yuan per share, smic's stock price has risen rapidly, reaching 66.50 yuan per share on april 21, 2023, an increase of 45.14%. however, the stock did not appear in the top ten holdings of southern xingrun value's first quarter report of 2023. in the second quarter, shi bo began to build a position, but the stock price had begun to fall. since april 21, 2023, smic's stock price has been falling all the way. as of december 31, 2023, the stock price has fallen by 20.25%, from a high of 66.50 yuan to 46.30 yuan. this is another typical "chasing up and killing down" operation.
figure 2 shows the stock price trend of smic from april 21, 2023 to december 29, 2023
with the overall adjustment of the senior leadership team of southern fund on september 21, 2024, shi bo resigned as deputy general manager and focused on portfolio management. this change has once again drawn the market's attention to his investment performance in recent years, especially whether he can still lead southern xingrun value out of its current predicament. in recent years, shi bo's investment logic has repeatedly failed in volatile markets, making investors wonder whether his previous successful experience is still suitable for the current market environment.
the "survivors" who once stood out in the bull and bear markets are now facing unprecedented challenges in the face of shrinking fund size and investor redemption pressure. can southern xingrun value get rid of the shadow of losses? can shibo achieve a rebound in performance by adjusting its strategy? these questions remain the focus of investors.
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