more policies are needed for the healthy and stable development of the housing market
2024-09-23
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the adjustment of some key city markets is relatively in the late stage of the adjustment period. in the future, as the effects of various policies to support housing demand become more apparent, expectations may gradually change and the market will recover.
our reporter li xiaohong
recently, data released by the national bureau of statistics showed that from january to august, the sales area of new commercial housing was 606.02 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 18.0%, of which residential sales area decreased by 20.4%. the sales of new commercial housing was 597.23 billion yuan, a decrease of 23.6%, of which residential sales decreased by 25.0%. although the overall data is still on a downward trend, some indicators have shown a trend of marginal narrowing under the influence of a series of policy measures. at present, the property market is still in the process of continuous adjustment.
the property market continues to adjust
against the backdrop of major changes in supply and demand, my country's real estate market has undergone a phased adjustment, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market and insufficient release of housing demand. as a result, prices of newly built commercial housing are still falling, and investment and sales are still declining year-on-year.
"at present, although the year-on-year decline has narrowed, the market is still in the process of adjustment, and there is still uncertainty in the expectations of both supply and demand sides. the adjustment of some key city markets is relatively in the late stage of the adjustment period. in the future, as the effects of various policies to support housing demand become more apparent, expectations may gradually change and the market will recover." cui guangcan, director of the real estate and urban development research center of shanghai normal university, said in an interview with a reporter from china economic times.
xu yuejin, deputy director of research at china index academy, believes that the real estate market is still in the bottoming out stage. with the macroeconomic trend under pressure, residents' income expectations have not improved, and market confidence still weak, the market is expected to continue to adjust in the short term.
wang ruimin, associate researcher at the institute of market economy, development research center of the state council, told china economic times that overall, the real estate market is still in the process of bottoming out, with new home sales showing a weak recovery, second-hand housing showing a clear feature of "trading price for volume", and the land market hovering at a low level. considering the large volume of projects under construction, the residential area for sale increased by 21.5% year-on-year, and the market still faces great pressure to destock, it is highly likely that the market will continue to bottom out.
in 2024, the real estate market has shown some signs of improvement under policy support. this positive change is particularly evident in some key cities. at the same time, the "price-for-volume" effect in the second-hand housing market has emerged. although the market is still facing great adjustment pressure, the transaction volume in some core cities has rebounded.
in cui guangcan's view, in the long run, my country's diversified demand, mainly rigid and improved housing demand, is still large, the space for various real estate and infrastructure construction brought about by urbanization development is still large, and the momentum for the sustained development of the real estate industry remains.
as september approaches, the traditional peak marketing season for the real estate market, “golden september and silver october”, arrives. real estate developers will step up their efforts to launch new products, and home buyers will also speed up their pace to enter the market.
however, xu yuejin pointed out that the traditional peak season of september has started off flat, and long-term factors such as residents' income expectations have not improved significantly, and the wait-and-see sentiment is still strong. at the same time, affected by the shrinking supply, the new housing market is under pressure, while the second-hand housing market in key cities has maintained a certain degree of activity under the "price-for-volume" policy. from the trend point of view, the property market policy is expected to be optimized, and with the support of policies, the market transaction volume in the fourth quarter is expected to pick up.
focus on meeting diversified housing needs
in accelerating the construction of a new model for real estate development, the ministry of housing and urban-rural development has proposed the "good housing" policy orientation and "actively promoting the acquisition of existing commercial housing for use as affordable housing" to meet the diversified housing needs.
wang ruimin believes that "good houses" are the general trend, and residents' yearning for a better life is constantly iterating. "big houses are beautiful", it is necessary to further clarify that "good houses" are first of all big houses. big houses have obvious comfort and differentiation, and are expected to become symbolic consumer goods that lead the trend in the new era and can stimulate new purchasing desires; the acquisition of existing houses should be further strengthened and accelerated, so as to release strong policy signals in a concentrated manner and help to quickly ease market pressure.
zhang yuansuo, director of the human settlement research center of beijing union university, told china economic times that in this round of market adjustment, local governments frequently adjusted real estate policies, reflecting the government's good vision and firm determination to stabilize the market and expectations. from the perspective of market supply and demand, market demand will be mainly for improvement for a long time in the future. therefore, the "good house" policy orientation proposed by the ministry of housing and urban-rural development is very accurate. the idea of "actively promoting the acquisition of existing commercial housing for use as affordable housing" itself is not a problem. if it is promoted on a large scale and quickly in reality, it will effectively alleviate the pressure on market inventory and help stabilize market expectations.
cui guangcan said that my country is accelerating the construction of a new model for real estate development. one important point is that the housing products and services provided by real estate companies are more in line with diversified housing needs, and more attention is paid to the supply of "good houses". the market demand for high-quality and well-equipped housing is still large, and the proportion of various types of improved housing demand will continue to increase in the future. therefore, real estate companies need to create good products, provide good services, and stimulate market demand, which will promote a better match between market supply and demand.
"if the government or enterprises can purchase existing commercial housing on the market and use it as affordable housing, it will be helpful to resolve the main contradictions in current housing development and at the same time revitalize existing housing resources. after purchasing suitable existing commercial housing on the market, it can be used for sales-type affordable housing to supply low-income working groups, or it can be used for rental-type affordable housing to solve the rental housing problems of new citizens and young people. it is an important means to promote market supply and demand balance." cui guangcan further stated.
however, xu yuejin believes that at present, the state-owned enterprises' storage policy still faces challenges such as difficulty in matching storage prices, mismatch between supply and demand, and high capital costs. the pace of policy implementation is relatively slow. if the policy can be further optimized and accelerated in the future, it is expected to help ease market inventory pressure and stabilize market expectations.
regarding how the real estate industry can better achieve transformation in the next step, cui guangcan believes that the third plenary session of the 20th cpc central committee proposed to accelerate the establishment of a housing system that combines renting and purchasing, and to accelerate the construction of a new model of real estate development. first, the real estate market should develop in coordination with other industries and the national economy as a whole, and adapt to the requirements of national economic development in terms of input and output in real estate development, construction, sales, property management, etc. second, real estate should extend from a short-chain industry to a long-chain industry to make the industry healthier and more sustainable. third, the development of the real estate market should be demand-oriented to better meet the hierarchical and diversified housing needs. fourth, the micro-subjects of real estate enterprises should be constructed according to the modern enterprise system.
zhang yuansuo believes that in the process of promoting the transformation of the real estate market, a linkage mechanism of "people-land-house-money" should be established, and attention should be paid to destocking, ensuring the delivery of buildings, and building good houses to meet high-quality demands.
"the third plenary session of the 20th cpc central committee has pointed out the medium- and long-term reform direction for the development of the real estate industry. the housing system of both renting and purchasing is expected to be established at a faster pace, and the 'security + market' housing system needs to be further improved. in the next few years, the supply of affordable housing, especially rent-guaranteed housing, will be increased, which is expected to provide more housing security for more low-income groups. in order to adapt to the new stage of real estate development, medium- and long-term systems such as the pre-sale system, real estate tax system and land system need to be further comprehensively deepened and reformed. however, judging from the pace of advancement, in the short term, the focus should still be on encouraging the sale of existing homes and optimizing the supervision of pre-sale funds. in addition, it is also very necessary to optimize the collection and payment of deed tax, land value-added tax, etc., and to provide more policy support for the revitalization of existing housing and existing land." chen wenjing, director of market research at china index academy, told china economic times.
