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key points:

1、 american college students are generally excited about harris running for president in place of biden. they believe that harris represents a new hope and represents the continuous progress of the united states., constantly getting rid of so-called white supremacy, they think it's time for the united states to elect a female president. but american college students' focus on the election is different from that of the overall electorate.

2. the issues that american voters are most concerned about in the general election are mainly economy and inflation, immigration, abortion, health care, etc., but voters from different groups pay very different attention to different issues. for example, trump supporters pay more attention to economic and immigration issues than harris supporters.

3. compared with the older generation, the attitude of contemporary young americans towards china is more moderate and rational. the older generation, having experienced the cold war, tends to view china from the perspective of national interests and geopolitics, while the younger generation does not have such preconceived notions.many young people and college students do not see china as a serious threat. they are more inclined to pacifism, oppose the hegemony of the united states, and especially do not want to have a fierce conflict with china.。

4. china and the united states still need to strengthen communication.today, american experts who understand china know less and less about china, and their status in american politics may decline, and their voices will become smaller and smaller.the current u.s. policy-making toward china is basically dominated by hawks with a hard-line stance. these hawks basically formulate policies from the perspective of u.s. domestic politics rather than from the perspective of understanding china.

introduction:as the us election approaches, scholars from the chinese academy of social sciences went to the united states for visiting studies and had in-depth exchanges with american think tank experts, university scholars and ordinary people to understand the attitudes of all walks of life in the united states towards the us election and various social issues in the united states.fu suixin, assistant researcher, institute of american studies, chinese academy of social sciencesandliu jiahao, assistant researcher at minzhi international research institute, share with you my experiences in the united states and observations on the u.s. election.

this issue was edited by zhang yifan

1. moderator:during your visit to the united states, did you feel the atmosphere of the us election? what are the main issues that the us media and voters are concerned about and what are some of the topics surrounding the election?

fu suixin:the us media pays more attention to some explosive topics, such as biden's withdrawal from the election, trump's shooting, the two-party conventions, and the debate between harris and trump. these topics usually only last for a few days and are different from the voters' focus.

according to poll data, voters are most concerned about issues such as economic inflation, immigration, abortion, and health care. in addition, issues such as crime, gun control, and race relations are also of great concern.it should be emphasized that different groups of voters have very different concerns about different issues.for example, trump's supporters are most concerned about economic and immigration issues, while only about 60% of harris' supporters are most concerned about economic issues. in comparison, they are more concerned about issues such as health care, abortion and climate change.

in the media, the confrontation between the two parties has been very intense, but in reality, voters generally only devote their energy to the election on the eve of the election.i arrived in the united states two months before the election, and i basically didn't see any billboards about the election. the election atmosphere may only become heated half a month or a month before the election.

this time i mainly visited american universities and think tanks, and talked with college students and policy researchers from think tanks. for policy researchers from think tanks, they are more concerned about the policies of the two parties or the policies of the two candidates. college students' focus on the election is different from that of the overall voters. they are more concerned about issues such as the palestinian-israeli issue and student loans. in general, most young people in the united states support the democratic party and their ideology is left-leaning.american college students are very excited about harris running for president in place of biden. they believe that harris represents a new hope, that the united states is constantly making progress and getting rid of so-called white supremacy. they believe that it is time for the united states to elect a female president.。

host:during your visit, did you observe how american college students view china?

fu suixin:the exchanges between chinese and american students have been seriously affected by the deterioration of sino-us relations, and the number of american students studying in china has declined significantly.

one of the main reasons is the warnings and obstructions to students by the us government and schools. for example, university teachers explicitly ask them not to bring some university equipment to china. faced with these burdens, students are less willing to come to china.

second, the number of people learning chinese in the united states is declining significantly because there are few opportunities to learn chinese. some students i have come into contact with want to do chinese research, but they have no place to learn chinese, which is a big obstacle for them to understand china.

from my conversations with these young people and the data from many polls,compared with the older generation, contemporary young americans have a more moderate and rational attitude towards china.the older generation, having experienced the cold war, tends to view china from the perspective of national interests and geopolitics, while the younger generation does not have such preconceived notions.many young people and college students do not see china as a serious threat. they are more inclined to pacifism, oppose the hegemony of the united states, and especially do not want to have a fierce conflict with china.。

2. moderator:it has been a while since trump and harris had their first debate in the election. at the end of the debate, both of them said they were the winners. based on the current reaction of american society and poll data, who do you think performed better in this debate? does this debate have any substantial impact on the situation of the election?

fu suixin:i personally think harris's performance is slightly better. in the past, hillary and biden had a difficult time in the confrontation with trump, but harris was more comfortable in the debate with biden, which exceeded everyone's expectations.

judging from the current poll data, the views are basically the same - more people think harris performed better. harris's support rate did not drop after the debate, and several polls showed that her support rate rose to a certain extent, up by one percentage point or half a percentage point, and even up to two percentage points.

trump's performance in this debate was not much different from the previous ones and did not exceed expectations. in previous debates, he often labeled hillary and biden with a negative label, but this time the label he gave to harris was not stable. from this perspective, his debate was not very successful.

i don’t think this debate will significantly widen the gap between the two candidates, and there is no authoritative data to show what impact this debate will have on the election. the gap between the two candidates’ support in swing states is still very small, and it is still unknown whether this debate can affect the election results.

host:recently, trump was assassinated again before the election. trump frequently encountered security problems before the election. is this a manifestation of voters' dissatisfaction with trump? can the safety of american politicians be guaranteed?

fu suixin:the information about trump's two assassination attempts is still incomplete. from the very limited information available, it can be seen thatthere are huge social contradictions and serious political polarization in the united states. many radical elements try to take advantage of the situation to vent their dissatisfaction through violent incidents.。

the u.s. secret service does protect presidential candidates, but the security intensity varies at different levels - the president's security is definitely the largest, and the security level of presidential candidates is second only to the president. in addition, there have been no direct attacks on presidential candidates for many years, and there may be a lot of negligence in security and some institutional malfunctions.

there are many unexpected things happening in american society right now, and it would not be surprising if this happens again in the short term.

3. moderator:after your visit to the united states, you mentioned that some american politicians have misjudged relations with china. what is your observation? will these misunderstandings continue to accumulate and may have a greater impact in the future? is there any way for both sides to reduce such misjudgments?

fu suixin:many american scholars and politicians have many deviations in their understanding of china.

for example, many americans blame china for the deterioration of sino-us relations in recent years. they believe that everything the united states does is a passive response to china's rise. if china is not constantly changing the status quo and challenging the interests and hegemony of the united states, the united states will definitely not take actions to suppress china. for example, the situation in the taiwan strait is tense now. the united states continues to sell arms to taiwan, and the weapons sold are becoming more and more advanced. it also supports taiwan independence forces and constantly hollows out the "one china principle". they do not consider the problem from these aspects, but only see the so-called pressure from china on taiwan.

compared with the years before the pandemic, the united states believes that it has recovered better and has become more confident, so it thinks it should be tougher on china. in fact, the united states does not see china's advantages. china's per capita education level, scientific research capabilities, and industrial structure are constantly improving. it is only a matter of time before its economic scale exceeds that of the united states. americans only see the current situation and do not see the problems of the united states itself, such as the high national debt, political divisions, and frequent violent incidents.

the united states' view of china is too short-sighted and narrow, and its misunderstanding of china is quite serious.misunderstandings will gradually accumulate, leading to a decrease in mutual trust between the two sides. each side will always assume the worst of the other side, thus misjudging the other side's intentions or capabilities, which will eventually lead to a continuous deterioration of the relationship between the two sides.。

for example, in recent years, senior us military generals have often publicly stated that mainland china will use force against taiwan at some point in time. they are not deliberately creating false information, but really believe it. however, some people who really understand china, such as american experts who know china, realize that the us military has a very serious misunderstanding of china. they misunderstand the statements of the chinese government and media, do not understand china, and are unwilling to explore it in depth. they always interpret it literally, or even deliberately distort china's statements, and thus often draw some absurd conclusions.

i think we still need to strengthen communication, for example, the military communication between china and the united states has increased recently. due to various reasons, direct communication between china and the united states has become less and less in recent years, and this trend is very dangerous.american experts who understand china know less and less about china, and their status in american politics may decline, and their voices will become smaller and smaller. the formulation of american china policy is basically dominated by hawks with a hard-line stance. these hawks basically formulate policies from the perspective of american domestic politics, rather than from the perspective of understanding china.they will not try to understand china in depth and start from specific issues, which may cause great misunderstanding to the development of sino-us relations and the us policy toward china.

4. moderator:the us presidential election will take place at the end of this year. what challenges will sino-us relations face after the new government takes office?maybe the impact on sino-us relations will be smaller?

fu suixin:there is a strong consensus between the two parties on the us' tough policy towards china, and there will be no major changes in the future. however, there are indeed big differences in the methods used by the two candidates.

if trump comes to power, it will bring some new shocks, because trump is very unpredictable. he may make some risky moves and even hit some existing bottom lines between china and the united states. in addition, trump insists on raising tariffs, which may put some pressure on china.

if harris takes office, her china policy will continue biden's path, maintaining the original tariffs in the economic and trade fields and strengthening risk reduction measures against china in key areas. in addition, she will definitely be more active than trump in uniting the united states and forming alliances, and may use allies to stir up trouble around china.

different candidates will have different priorities for different agendas.harris may not make sudden big moves like trump, but she may be stronger in policy implementation and execution.

host:ordinary people mainly perceive the us attitude towards china from the trade relationship between the two sides, and the competition in the field of science and technology is also visible to everyone. how do you evaluate the competitive situation in these areas?

fu suixin:the sino-us trade war started during the trump era, and most american think tank experts believe that this is a very failed move. economically, more than 90% of the losses in the trade war were borne by american companies and consumers, which can be said to be more than the gains make up for the losses. the trade balance that trump is keen on is far from being restored; strategically, decoupling from china is basically unattainable.

in the future, no matter who comes to power, they will largely continue the previous policies, because one of their goals is to reduce economic interdependence between china and the united states and achieve decoupling in key areas. from this perspective, they believe that they can continue to move forward.

if harris comes to power, she will generally adhere to biden's china economic and trade policies and continue to maintain the existing tariffs on china. in the field of science and technology, she will continue to adhere to the strategy of "small courtyard and high wall", and may even expand the scope to become "large courtyard and high wall".

trump is obsessed with trade balance. he believes that trade deficit is a very bad thing, so he is obsessed with restoring the trade balance between china and the united states. his concept is non-mainstream in the economics community and is difficult to achieve. another important reason why trump wants to increase tariffs on china is to use it as a bargaining chip with china, forcing china to compromise with the united states on other issues, such as making some exchanges on the russia-ukraine issue.

5. moderator:from the perspective of young scholars, in the field of cultural exchange, where do you think the differences between china and the united states lie? how can we promote cultural understanding and exchanges between the two countries?

liu jiahao:the biggest difference between china and the united states in people-to-people exchanges is that china and the united states have different attitudes towards people-to-people exchanges under strategic competition. this is reflected in two aspects:

first, at the us level, there is inconsistency within the us. although there is a consensus on being tough on china, from a micro perspective, there is still internal division in the attitude towards china. for example, in congress, some hard-line hawkish members have reached the point of "opposing china when they encounter it", but there are still some diplomatic officials and some think tanks and academics who do not think that competition is so serious that they need to cut off all exchanges.

this is also reflected in the dialogue work of the biden administration throughout the year of 23, which re-established various dialogue and exchange mechanisms. of course, this is also to maintain exchanges in areas where they believe it is necessary.under the banner of national security, they have also banned communication and exchanges in many areas, and they also believe that the united states should strive to win this competition, but they do not think that the desire for victory means full hostility, and believe that cultural exchanges should be maintained because it is an important channel for maintaining understanding and avoiding misjudgment.。

but at present, in the context of strategic competition,it is inevitable that the united states will extend its national security hand into the field of cultural exchanges.for example, congress passed the confucius institute ban act, which caused serious damage to the cultural exchanges between the two countries, and this damage will be irreversible within the next one or two governments.

in our view, the united states' various actions towards china have unilaterally closed the channels of cultural exchanges. once the united states touches on some bottom-line issues that cannot be discussed, there will be no room for communication. americans do not understand why we react so strongly, becausethis is not only a difference in thinking under different systems, but also a common problem in communication between the east and the west - both sides do not understand each other's approach and the logical starting point of the other side's reaction, which leads to the problem of using one's own thinking to guess other people's actions. the consequence is misjudgment and deepening of mutual misunderstanding.。

in my opinion, china and the united states should first learn how to coexist in the long term in the context of strategic competition, and continue to explore new forms of people-to-people exchanges in the context of strategic competition. as the competition continues and deepens, the importance of people-to-people exchanges will become increasingly evident.