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author: liu yuanju

financial columnist

researcher at several think tanks

recently, the website of the ministry of foreign affairs announced that the competent authorities of china and japan reached a four-point consensus on the issue of the discharge of nuclear wastewater into the sea, and issued the document "china and japan reach a consensus on the discharge of nuclear contaminated water from the fukushima daiichi nuclear power plant into the sea."

the four points of consensus are:

1. the japanese side has made it clear that it will earnestly fulfill its obligations under international law, make every effort to avoid negative impacts on people and the environment, and will continue to carry out impact assessments on the marine environment and marine ecology.

2. based on the concerns of all stakeholders including china, japan welcomes the establishment of a long-term international monitoring arrangement covering key links of sea discharge under the framework of the international atomic energy agency, and will ensure the effective participation of all stakeholders including china and the implementation of independent sampling monitoring and laboratory analysis comparison by these participating countries.

3. the two sides agreed to continue to conduct constructive dialogue based on science and properly handle concerns related to emissions in a highly responsible manner towards the ecological environment and people's life and health.

4. china stated that in accordance with relevant chinese laws and regulations and wto provisions, china has taken emergency preventive temporary measures on aquatic products originating from japan. after effectively participating in long-term international monitoring under the framework of the international atomic energy agency and independent sampling by participating countries, china will adjust relevant measures based on scientific evidence and gradually resume imports of japanese aquatic products that meet regulatory standards.

four points of consensus solved the problem of seawater monitoring

the nuclear wastewater discharged by japan contains a variety of radioactive elements, such as tritium, uranium, plutonium, cesium, strontium, iodine, cobalt, etc. the heavy ions are relatively easy to remove. simply put, it is the process of making pure water. now home pure water machines can do it, and the manufacturing cost of wahaha pure water is not high.

however, among these radioactive elements, tritium is very difficult to remove. tritium is an isotope of hydrogen. when the protium in the hydrogen atom of pure water is replaced by tritium, it becomes tritium-containing wastewater. it is difficult to separate the same water molecules. this is also the reason why normal nuclear power plant operations will also discharge tritium-containing wastewater. japan's solution is to discharge it into the sea. the half-life of tritium is 12.43 years, that is, the natural concentration is halved in 12 years, the content is one-fourth in 24 years, one-eighth in 36 years, one-sixteenth in 48 years, one-thirty-second in 60 years, and so on.

the mission of the international atomic energy agency is to ensure that all types of radionuclides meet the standards before they are discharged. it should be pointed out that this does not mean that emissions cannot be allowed, but that emissions must meet the standards.what china opposes is japan's unauthorized release of fish into the sea. otherwise, if the chinese government allows the import of japanese aquatic products in the future, it will be without scientific basis and disregarding people's health.

starting in 2021, the iaea team will review the emission plans and related activities of the japanese government and tokyo electric power company in accordance with iaea safety standards, and conduct independent source and environmental monitoring, sampling and analysis, collect factual information, and resolve issues to confirm the data released by the japanese government and tokyo electric power company and protect the health and environment of all mankind.

the working group was established under the authority of the iaea secretariat and is chaired by a senior iaea official and consists of 11 internationally recognized experts from argentina, australia, canada, china, france, the marshall islands, south korea, russia, the united kingdom, the united states and vietnam, who serve in their personal capacity.

however, according to the statement of the ministry of foreign affairs, china believes that the current relevant international mechanisms have limitations, the assessment and monitoring of sea discharge is not comprehensive, lacks transparency and credibility, and needs to be further improved and strengthened. it is necessary to establish a long-term international monitoring arrangement covering the key links of sea discharge, ensure the effective participation of all stakeholders including china, and implement independent sampling and monitoring.

but japan is opposed to this. on august 18, a japanese government source revealed that japan could not accept china's request for independent sampling because it involved japan's sovereignty and independent sampling could not guarantee objectivity.

while china is opposing this, the general administration of customs has completely suspended the import of aquatic products originating from japan from august 24, 2023. in september, china's imports of aquatic products from japan have returned to zero.

according to statistics, from january 2020 to july 2023, china imported $1.21 billion worth of aquatic products from japan, an average of $340 million per year; during the same period, china exported $12.2 billion worth of aquatic products to japan, an average of $3.4 billion per year, which is 10 times the import amount. therefore, in the sino-japanese aquatic product trade, china exports more.

china's aquatic products with a high import value from japan include scallop mollusks, sea cucumbers and fresh and chilled pacific bluefin tuna; and aquatic products with a high export value to japan include eels, frozen fish fillets, etc. among them, bluefin tuna is the raw material for japanese sashimi, and 99.97% of it comes from japan.

so, what is origin?

according to article 3 of the regulations of the people's republic of china on the origin of import and export goods, goods wholly obtained in one country (region) shall be deemed to have been originated in that country (region); goods produced with the participation of two or more countries (regions) shall be deemed to have been originated in the country (region) where the substantial transformation was finally completed.

goods obtained entirely in one country (region) include marine catches and other items obtained from waters outside its territorial waters by vessels legally flying the flag of that country.in this sense, to put it simply, aquatic products raised or caught in japanese territory and territorial waters are of course japanese aquatic products. aquatic products caught outside japanese territorial waters by ships flying the japanese flag are also japanese aquatic products, while aquatic products caught by ships flying the russian flag are russian aquatic products.

russian officials also believe that radioactivity does not pose a threat to marine life

china's ban on japanese aquatic products has changed the import structure of chinese aquatic products.

after imposing a ban on japanese seafood, china turned to purchasing seafood from south america, other asian countries and other parts of the world to fill the gap in demand.taking "fish and other aquatic invertebrates" as an example, from september 2023 to july this year, related exports from indonesia, the united kingdom and argentina to china increased by 42%, about 150% and nearly 200% respectively.

russia has also imposed a ban on japan. while expanding its export of aquatic products to china, russia has maintained its ban on japan. from june to july this year, russia sent a research vessel to collect more than 100 tons of biota and plankton samples from the sea of ​​japan and the sea of ​​okhotsk for analysis and research.

the director of the russian veterinary and phytosanitary supervision service, dankevelt, said that the fish near the nuclear wastewater discharge site of the fukushima daiichi nuclear power plant in japan are safe, the content of radioactive substances in the seawater around japan is "very low", and the tritium content does not currently pose a threat to the ocean and marine life.however, the russian side believes that various abnormal situations may occur, so it will still implement the policy of banning the import of japanese fish that began in october last year, and will monitor the waters east of japan and fishing areas of interest to russia in the future.

at the same time, japan is also looking for new buyers, mainly selling to americans. according to data from hakodate customs in hokkaido, local scallop shipments to the united states doubled year-on-year to 3.6 billion yen (25 million u.s. dollars) between january and june 2024, and the united states has replaced china as the largest buyer of japanese scallops.

in addition, japan's scallop shipments to vietnam increased by about 9 times to 3.1 billion yen. but these countries are still not enough to make up for the loss of demand from chinese customers. in the first half of 2024, japan's overall scallop exports still fell by 37% to 24 billion yen. therefore, japan still has the motivation to seek china to lift the import ban.

in response to the differences, china, japan and relevant international organizations have conducted more than ten rounds of intensive negotiations and consultations. the result of these consultations is the four-point consensus. specifically, the functions of third parties including china under the framework of the international atomic energy agency (iaea) can be strengthened.

in the future, japan will allow new sampling points to be added, or allow willing third parties such as china to join in the sampling of seawater and aquatic products, and to sample seawater and treated water before discharge.as a result, third parties such as china can play a greater role, have greater autonomy, and strengthen monitoring mechanisms.

on september 20, japanese prime minister fumio kishida just held a press conference at the prime minister's office, informing that he had held a telephone conversation with the director-general of the international atomic energy agency and agreed that china would join the monitoring mechanism. japan accepted china's sending personnel to the fukushima nuclear power plant to conduct nuclear wastewater testing.

the japanese side believes that, under the framework of the iaea, allowing china to participate in monitoring and sampling not only safeguards japan's sovereignty, but also ensures the objectivity and fairness of the investigation, while meeting china's requirements. kishida also said that china and japan have reached a consensus on issues related to japan's export of aquatic products to china.

during the china-japan summit meeting in november last year, the two sides agreed to find a suitable way to resolve the issue of the discharge of fukushima nuclear contaminated water into the sea through consultation and negotiation in a constructive manner. therefore, the four-point consensus is the concrete implementation of the results of the china-japan summit meeting.

many people believe that this is related to the murder of a chinese-japanese boy in shenzhen. there may be a few days to choose when to announce the consensus, but in any case, this incident did not happen suddenly, but has been going on for a long time.

it should be pointed out that consensus is only the basis for solving problems. there are still a series of problems to be solved when it comes to specific implementation. therefore, as chinese foreign ministry spokesperson mao ning said at a regular press conference on the afternoon of the 20th: the consensus document reached by china and japan does not mean that china will immediately and fully resume imports of japanese aquatic products. china will conduct technical consultations with japan and gradually resume imports of japanese aquatic products that meet the standards on the premise that the requirements put forward are fully met.

in general, it is in the interests of both countries to gradually resume imports of japanese aquatic products under more scientific and rigorous supervision, and consumers do not need to worry about this.

this article is an original article specially commissioned by the phoenix news commentary department and only represents the author's views.

editor: liu jun