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interface news reporter | wang yuhan

on september 19, the federal reserve cut interest rates for the first time in four years, a sharp drop of 50 basis points, starting a monetary easing cycle with a radical first step. the positive signals released also further increased market expectations for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts.

affected by this, real estate stocks saw a large increase on the same day. the a-share real estate development sector closed at 9517.05 points, up 2.28%. as of the close, gemdale group rose nearly 8% and vanke rose more than 4%. in terms of hong kong stocks, real estate companies such as kaisa, r&f properties, and agile also saw a sharp increase.

september 20,the new round of loan market quotation rate (lpr) was released. the 1-year and 5-year lprs were not adjusted. the 1-year lpr was 3.35%.the interest rate for terms over 5 years is 3.85%, which is the same as the previous time and has not been lowered as expected.

although the interest rate cut failed, the market still holds a positive attitude towards real estate stocks.after the morning opening，a-share real estate sector opened low and ended high, continuing the previous day's upward trend, windreal estate sectorsuperiorup 1.5%, leading the a-share market, including hitech development, electronic city, etc.successivelydaily limit。

as of the evening close,chongqing development、dalong real estate, macrolink, zhangjiang hi-tech and others rose by more than 6%, china communications construction real estate, shoukai shares, beijing capital development and others rose by more than 4%, and many stocks such as i love my home and greenland holdings also rose.the stock price hit an all-time high, with the intraday high reaching 25.04 yuan.

at the same time, hong kong-listed chinese real estate stocks also performed strongly.as of the close, rongsheng china rose by more than 10%.evergrandereal estate and china merchants land rose by more than 8%.midea real estate rosesuper 7%, china jinmao,oct (asia), vanke, etc.risesuper 5%。

"the fact that lpr is not adjusted now does not mean that there is no room for adjustment later. an important new consideration for monetary policy has been added, namely maintaining price stability and promoting a moderate price recovery. from the perspective of current commercial retail prices, more relaxed monetary and financial policies are needed to support it, so the reduction of lpr is only a matter of time, and it may be reflected in the fourth quarter," yan yuejin, deputy director of shanghai e-house real estate research institute, told interface news.

however, it is worth noting that there are many restrictions on interest rate cuts and their stimulating effect on the real estate market is obviously weakening at this stage.

at a press conference on the theme of "promoting high-quality development" held on september 5, zou lan, director of the people's bank of china's monetary policy department, pointed out that "due to factors such as the speed of bank deposits diversion to asset management products and the extent of the narrowing of banks' net interest margins, deposit and lending rates face certain constraints on further downward movement," pointing out the difficulty of the reduction.

li yujia, a researcher at the guangdong housing policy research center, pointed out that from 2022 to now, mortgage loan interest rates have dropped by about 200 basis points. the largest drop was after may 17, when there was no lower limit on the interest rate for first-home purchases in various places, but the driving effect on commercial housing has been significantly weakened. the main reason is that the market's expectations for housing prices are relatively pessimistic, the number of second-hand housing listings continues to rise, and the trend of exchanging price for volume is difficult to reverse, which cannot be changed by interest rate cuts.

compared with the interest rate cut,the limits on the expected reduction in the reserve requirement ratio are relatively small.

huajin securities research pointed out that the current monetary policy has shifted to a supportive neutral stance of "supply based on demand, sufficient volume and stable price". although the demand for credit financing in the real economy has continued to cool down, incremental financing still needs to be guaranteed by long-term, low-cost and stable incremental liquidity.

recently, monetary policy tools have been coordinated, with net purchases of open market treasury bonds gradually replacing the mlf with higher costs, and a comprehensive reduction in the standard at a reasonable time is expected to ensure a reasonable and moderate increase in long-term liquidity. the more anticipated incremental policy space before the end of the year focuses on the central government's finances, especially the possibility of issuing more ordinary treasury bonds to increase the intensity of consumer subsidies and budgetary investment.

on the policy side, on september 20,the beijing municipal committee of the communist party of china issued implementation opinions on the "decision of the central committee of the communist party of china on further comprehensively deepening reforms and promoting chinese-style modernization."

the opinion mentioned thatwantimprove the policy mechanism to support the diversified housing needs of urban and rural residents, and give full play to the housing security role of housing provident funds. optimize real estate policies, cancel the standards for ordinary and non-ordinary residential buildings in a timely manner, optimize the transaction rules for commercial residential land, and reform the financing methods of real estate development and the pre-sale system of commercial housing.

in"cancel the standards for ordinary residential and non-ordinary residential buildings in due course” one issue has attracted much attention from the market.

previously inthe third plenary session of the 18th cpc central committeeit was made clear thatfully empower city governments to regulate the real estate market, allow relevant departments to cancel the standards for ordinary and non-ordinary residential buildings, reform the financing methods of real estate development and the pre-sale system of commercial housing。but after the meeting, thisthe policy has not been implemented. beijing isat presentthe first oneannounced thatfirst-tier cities that have abolished the standards for ordinary residential and non-ordinary residential properties are expected to follow suit in other citiesimplement.

“canceling the standards for general housing and non-general housing can help release demand for improved housing. at the same time, it will also help companies better match product types and focus on creating high-quality products that meet market demand.”，chen wenjing, director of policy research at china index academy, said。

on the real estate company side, according to statistics from the china index academy, from january to august this year, the total sales of the top100 real estate companies was 2683.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 38.5%. there are only 61 companies with sales of over 10 billion yuan, and the camp adjustment is still ongoing.

frominterim resultscome and see,as of august 30, the average operating income of 105 a+h-share real estate companies was 11.591 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.00%, and the average net profit was 145 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 82.05%.，the profitability of listed real estate companies continued to weaken, and net profit fell significantly。

next, from september to the end of the year is also a critical time for policies to narrow the decline in sales area. especially when combined with the impact of the quarter within the year, the effect of policy efforts at the end of the year may be more obvious.

zheshang securities research pointed out that the low point of the real estate industry index in september is a good time to invest in real estate. with the end of the mid-year report season, the performance pressure on real estate companies will be released. policy tightening and seasonal recovery in fundamentals will have the opportunity to drive the valuation recovery of the real estate sector.