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retired aircraft, a good business worth hundreds of billions

2024-09-20

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retired aircraft are full of treasures, and the value of aircraft dismantling and recycling industry is becoming increasingly apparent

text | caijing intern zhao yaqing and reporter wang jingyi

editor | wang jingyi

the planes we usually see are always full of vitality, either waiting to pick up or disembark passengers, ready to take off, or spreading their wings and soaring into the sky, as fast as a shooting star.

just like people retire, airplanes will also have their retirement day. when this day comes, the giant aircraft will still stand, but will stop roaring forever. if it is disassembled and recycled, the aircraft will no longer be seen as a whole, but as scattered parts - recyclable and non-recyclable.

at the end of august, an airbus a330-200 wide-body aircraft was parked quietly at the airbus aircraft life cycle service center in chengdu. its engine had been removed first, and the remaining parts would be dismantled and recycled in the next 1-2 months.

there are many young aircraft, and there are many aircraft that will become old. according to the report of the international air transport association (iata), the average retirement age of commercial aircraft in the world is 25 years, while the age of passenger aircraft of chinese airlines is generally relatively young, averaging 8 to 10 years.

in the next decade, china will face the problem of large-scale aging of its fleet. according to airbus's forecast, in the next 20 years, china will enter the peak period of aircraft retirement, with more than 100 aircraft entering the middle-aged and elderly stage (12 years and above) every year.

when an aircraft is retired, dismantling and recycling becomes a common option. this means that after the aircraft is dismantled and disassembled through professional technology and equipment, the engine, landing gear, avionics equipment and other parts are repaired, refurbished, remanufactured and inspected, and then flowed to the domestic and international second-hand aircraft material market after certification for sale or rental.

according to the china civil aviation news, the current international aircraft dismantling service market is around us$97 million and is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 6%-7%, reaching around us$180 million in 2027. by then, the size of the scrap parts market will reach around us$3 billion.

an industry for aircraft dismantling, recycling and regeneration is emerging.

disassembling an airplane is a technical job

from the moment a passenger plane is born, airlines begin to measure its economic feasibility.

as passenger planes age, fuel consumption begins to increase, maintenance frequency gradually increases, and operating costs rise day by day. airlines find that it is becoming increasingly uneconomical to continue using these old planes.

at the same time, a new generation of fuel-efficient aircraft has been put into use, prompting airlines and leasing companies to seek to upgrade their aircraft models.

therefore, when a passenger aircraft reaches the end of its life and is retired, passenger-to-cargo conversion or dismantling becomes its most important destination.

different disposal methods do not directly depend on the age of the aircraft. maximizing asset value is the fundamental principle, and each aircraft must be analyzed on a case-by-case basis.

an airbus a330-200 wide-body aircraft waiting to be dismantled and recycled

photo by wang jingyi

"if a passenger plane is old but has few flight hours and pressurization cycles, the airline may choose to convert it into cargo. however, when the aircraft indexes of a passenger plane are indeed too old, dismantling it is a more economical option," yang shudong, head of commercial, strategy and business development at airbus (chengdu) aircraft life cycle services co., ltd., told us.

commercial aviation is a highly market-oriented field. "there is a shortage of aviation materials right now, and the aviation materials market is relatively booming. the prices of aviation materials are much higher than before, so the value of dismantling aircraft and selling aviation materials is higher," said yang shudong.

although it is not as difficult as building an airplane, disassembling an airplane is also a technical job.

before actually entering the factory for dismantling, retired aircraft need to undergo a detailed evaluation. engineers will assess the potential value of each aircraft based on its random files, maintenance records, component codes and other materials, and tailor a unique dismantling plan for each aircraft.

after entering the factory, depending on whether it is a narrow-body or wide-body aircraft, the average disassembly cycle is 8-10 weeks, which mainly includes three steps.

the first step is to dismantle the usable aviation parts. after passing the flight suitability test, these usable aviation parts can return to the aviation market.

the disassembly order is relatively simple and crude, "dismantle the valuables first". generally, high-value components such as the engine, landing gear, auxiliary power system (apu) are dismantled first, and then the system components or parts with relatively high integrity are dismantled.

among them, the engine is the most valuable component of an aircraft, accounting for about 60% of the sales price of the entire aircraft.

after the usable aviation materials are removed, the remaining parts will enter the second step: green decomposition and classification. the staff will identify and classify the materials of different parts, such as aluminum, titanium, copper, etc.

however, how to recycle composite materials represented by carbon fiber remains a global challenge. such composite materials cannot be easily fused and reassembled and are usually crushed, incinerated or landfilled.

the world is working together to find a solution. tarmac aerosave, a well-known aircraft dismantling company and a joint venture between airbus and its partners, has begun working with some european and chinese companies to try to design and achieve efficient decomposition and reuse of carbon fiber composite materials.

photo by wang jingyi

then comes the third step - disassembly and cutting, and the products flow into the corresponding second-hand resource recycling market according to their properties.

for example, the fuselage casing, which is mainly made of metal aluminum, can be reused in the beer and beverage industry to make beverage packaging; the fuselage skin can be made into aviation peripherals for sale after cutting and processing.

brian agnew, general manager of airbus (chengdu) aircraft lifecycle services co., ltd., said: "as new aircraft are delivered to customers, from a fleet management perspective, more and more aircraft will need to be retired. we expect there will be a surge in 2026 or 2027, and from then on (the number of retirements) will continue to rise and will continue to grow for 20 to 25 years."

split into a 100 billion good business

the dismantling and recycling of a retired aircraft is like a "whale fall", and the aircraft dismantling and recycling industry behind it is brewing a good business worth hundreds of billions of dollars.

the "research on the development path of china's aircraft disassembly and remanufacturing industry" released by the internet industry research institute of tsinghua university stated that the scale of china's aviation maintenance and remanufacturing industry in 2022 will be approximately 200 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 30% of the global market share. among them, more than 90% of retired aircraft will be flown abroad for storage, disassembly, and remanufactured, and only less than 10% will be disassembled and reused in china. there is huge room for development in china.

as the world's second largest aviation market, china's aircraft dismantling business is still in its infancy due to the generally young fleet.

image source: ic

on april 22, 2019, the civil aviation administration of china officially issued the aircraft disassembly advisory circular numbered ac-145-017, which stipulates the standards for applying for maintenance licenses that include aircraft disassembly projects. previously, china did not have detailed management rules for the aircraft disassembly field, and aircraft disassembly companies had been operating in accordance with international standards.

according to our analysis, there are 11 companies in china that have obtained aircraft disassembly and maintenance licenses, located in many provinces across the country.

zhonglong oufei aircraft maintenance engineering co., ltd. (zhonglong oufei for short), located in the zhonglong aircraft recycling and remanufacturing base in the harbin airside economic zone, is the first maintenance unit in china to have an aircraft disassembly and maintenance license issued by the civil aviation administration of china. however, compared with mature international organizations, it is still in its early stages of development.

according to airbus research, in the next 20 years, more than 100 aircraft will enter the middle-aged and elderly stage (12 years old or more) every year, and the annual compound growth rate will exceed 15%; by 2042, the value of china's aviation services market is expected to exceed us$54 billion (approximately rmb 387.18 billion), becoming the world's largest aviation services market.

although china's aircraft dismantling market is vast, it is also full of challenges.

photo by wang jingyi

"the current average recycling rate of the domestic aircraft dismantling industry is around 60%, and it is just a simple dismantling to recycle high-value parts." brian agnew told us.

the dismantling recycling rate is an important indicator of the level of development. the residual value of retired aircraft can be maximized through efficient recycling and reuse of aircraft parts and materials. but more importantly, how to deal with the difficult-to-recycle parts is especially related to whether the industry's development adheres to green and sustainable development.

brian agnew said airbus has achieved a 92% recycling rate in europe and hopes to reach the same level in china.

secondly, aircraft dismantling and recycling is not an independent link. it is closely linked to the upstream and downstream of the aviation manufacturing industry, and cooperation has become the key word for its development.

for example, composite materials represented by carbon fiber are currently difficult to recycle, which limits the improvement of disassembly recycling rate. it is crucial to cooperate with relevant companies in research and development and open up upstream and downstream links.

in addition, an orderly market environment needs to be created. due to the lack of a mature second-hand aircraft parts trading market and a complete second-hand aircraft parts valuation and testing system, the entire market is still in a relatively early stage.

"the aircraft dismantling business is a special business that closely combines hard power and soft power." yu zhanfu, a senior management consultant in the civil aviation industry, told us that hard power is reflected in the aircraft dismantling process itself, which requires specific facilities and equipment, skilled workers and necessary certification and training.

but what is more important is the subsequent soft power, that is, how the dismantled second-hand aircraft parts can quickly enter the regional or even global aircraft parts circulation system. whether it is possible to find a smooth circulation channel for the dismantled (and overhauled/maintained) parts is a more difficult part of this business.

although it is difficult, this emerging industry is developing in a positive direction. as aircraft become older, china's aircraft dismantling and recycling market is creating a lucrative business worth hundreds of billions of yuan.