the average daily transaction volume of second-hand houses in 7 cities during the mid-autumn festival was better than last year, and the new house market remained divided
2024-09-18
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in september, the property market entered the traditional "golden september" marketing peak season. during the mid-autumn festival, the second-hand housing market showed a certain resilience, with better performance than the mid-autumn festival holidays in the past two years; the new housing market is still divided, and sales offices in many places have increased their marketing efforts.
on september 18, according to the monitoring data of the linping residential big data research institute, during this year's mid-autumn festival holiday (september 15th to september 17th), the average daily transaction volume of second-hand houses in the seven key cities it monitored was 382 units, an increase of 104.9% compared with the average transaction volume during the two festivals last year, and an increase of 236.8% compared with the average daily transaction volume during the mid-autumn festival in 2022.
in terms of specific cities, the average daily transaction volume of second-hand houses in seven cities including beijing, shanghai, and shenzhen during the mid-autumn festival this year has surpassed last year's double holidays (the mid-autumn festival and national day holidays in 2023 are consecutive), and the overall trend is better than that of new houses.
according to the monitoring data of china index academy, during the mid-autumn festival, the number of second-hand housing transactions in key cities generally increased compared with last year's mid-autumn festival. among them, beijing, shenzhen, hangzhou and foshan are still active in the second-hand housing market under the "price-for-volume" strategy, especially for some "old, dilapidated and small" houses. after the price dropped to the psychological expectation, the rigid demand customers gradually entered the market.
from the perspective of the new home market, although sales offices in many places have increased their marketing efforts, the overall visit volume to sales offices in most cities is average, and the transaction volume is lower than the level of previous mid-autumn festival holidays.
according to monitoring data from the china index academy, during this year's mid-autumn festival holiday, the average daily sales area of new homes in 25 representative cities fell by about 29% compared with the holiday in 2023 (note: due to the consecutive holidays of the mid-autumn festival and national day in 2023, the average daily transaction volume during the consecutive holidays was selected for comparison with last year).
xu yuejin, deputy director of research at china index academy, pointed out that during the mid-autumn festival, sales offices in many places stepped up their marketing efforts, but from the perspective of market performance, only the number of visits to real estate projects in the core areas increased compared with before the festival, and the phenomenon of cold and hot differentiation still existed, and the overall market performance was still relatively flat. in addition, due to the impact of typhoons in jiangsu, zhejiang and shanghai, the pace of real estate transactions has temporarily slowed down.
monitoring by china index academy shows that in the new home market, luxury homes in shanghai still maintained a high level of attention during this year's mid-autumn festival holiday, but the overall market performance was general under the influence of the typhoon. the number of visits to projects in the core areas of guangzhou, hangzhou, chengdu and tianjin was acceptable, while shenzhen, suzhou, nanjing and other places performed relatively flat during the holiday, and short-term customers were more wait-and-see.
judging from the performance of cities in various tiers, the transaction volumes in first-tier cities and representative second-tier cities both decreased by about 30% year-on-year, while the decline in representative third- and fourth-tier cities was 19%.
among them, beijing's new home market performed better than last year. during this year's mid-autumn festival, beijing's newly built commercial residential transaction area was 13,000 square meters, with an average daily transaction area of 4,000 square meters, an increase of 91% over the average daily transaction area during the 2023 mid-autumn festival.
affected by typhoon bebejia, the real estate market in shanghai performed flat during the mid-autumn festival. in terms of new homes, a total of 14 projects were opened for subscription during the mid-autumn festival in shanghai, including popular luxury housing projects such as zhonghai residence and cuihu tiandi liuheting. the subscription rate of two projects exceeded 100%. the average unit price of cuihu phase vi project was as high as 210,000 yuan, and the number of subscription groups on the first day exceeded 70. the luxury housing market in shanghai still has a certain degree of heat. the transaction area of new commercial housing during the mid-autumn festival was 38,000 square meters.
during the holiday period, the transaction area of newly built commercial residential properties in shenzhen was 12,000 square meters, and the average daily transaction area decreased by 7% compared with 2023. in the short term, shenzhen’s inventory clearance is under great pressure, and customers are more selective, further exacerbating the wait-and-see sentiment.
after experiencing a lukewarm period in august, the guangzhou real estate market began to step up sales in september by taking advantage of the "golden september and silver october" marketing period. during the "mid-autumn festival" holiday, more than 40 real estate projects in guangzhou launched surprise promotions such as fixed prices and special offers, and two real estate projects were launched at the same time. from the overall market perspective, market popularity and visit volume have increased compared to before, especially new projects have attracted many buyers due to their superior geographical location and high cost-effectiveness, but the transaction end has not yet appeared.
linping residential big data research institute pointed out that the overall performance of second-hand houses during the mid-autumn festival this year was better than that of new houses, which is also a relatively obvious trend in the real estate market this year; in the new home market, transactions in most cities may show signs of "deflation", and the real estate market transaction end still has a large room for growth. in addition, with the national day holiday approaching, it is expected that with the increase in real estate companies' promotion efforts and the continued "price-for-volume" of second-hand houses, the transaction end will continue to recover, but whether the market will usher in a stabilization trend will require a longer period of positive data to support it.
looking ahead, the report of china index academy shows that the end of september each year is a period of intensive introduction of real estate policies. it is expected that relaxing restrictive policies in core cities will still be an important direction for optimizing the demand side. there is still room for further adjustment in reducing mortgage interest rates and transaction taxes in various places. at the same time, the intensity of housing purchase subsidies in various places is expected to be further increased. in terms of destocking, currently affected by factors such as acquisition prices, capital costs, and housing mismatch, the pace of local state-owned enterprises' acquisition and storage is still slow. in the future, if the scope of use of the acquisition of existing houses, the scope of acquisition objects, and financial support are further optimized, market confidence is expected to be restored.
the paper reporter ji simin
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