"personal health small appliances and cultural and creative co-branded products have emerged as a new force. in terms of local specialties, not only yangcheng lake hairy crabs dominate, but also other local specialties have become more popular."

text/ ba jiuling

mooncakes, hairy crabs, tea, and liquor, which one is the leader in this year's mid-autumn festival consumption?

“why do i feel like the mooncakes distributed this year are smaller in size?”

this is a common complaint among many people on social media on the eve of the mid-autumn festival, and there are many similar feedbacks around xiaoba.

at the same time, an entrepreneur in hangzhou said: "80% of the mid-autumn festival gifts i received here are hairy crabs. i have received more than a dozen crab coupons. i don't know why there are so many this year?"

according to her feedback, she only received a few crab coupons last year, so she changed her gift-giving strategy from mooncakes to her own products.

the above is not an isolated case. according to various media reports, the business model of some mooncake oem factories has changed from "working until the early morning to ship goods" in previous years to "working three days and resting one day" this year; a five-star hotel has cut its sales target by 80% - from 800,000 yuan to 150,000 yuan; after visiting supermarkets offline, xiaoba felt that mooncake sales were unpopular, generally discounted, and somewhat marginalized.

since september, the wholesale price of hairy crabs has changed almost every day, causing crab traders to exclaim that the price may break the highest price in 2022 - the wholesale price exceeds 200 yuan per catty.

according to what xiaoba learned from the "su'an lake hairy crab" company in anfeng national crab market, "china's no. 1 river crab market", on september 2, the wholesale price of 3.5-liang female crabs reached 100 yuan/jin, and on september 14 it reached 130 yuan/jin, and the wholesale price of 4-liang female crabs reached 180 yuan/jin.

many yangcheng lake crab traders told xiaoba that the hairy crab market is in a situation of supply exceeding demand recently.

"it's still a problem of maturity. mainly because the weather is hot this year, the hairy crabs mature late, and the mid-autumn festival is nearly half a month earlier than in previous years." several crab traders analyzed to xiaoba.

consumers buying hairy crabs

mooncakes and hairy crabs are the two mainstays of mid-autumn festival consumption. according to enlighten's "2024 mid-autumn festival gift trend insight report" which analyzed last year's data, the volume of mid-autumn festival gifts is mainly concentrated in food (62%) and beverages (30%). among food, mooncakes are the first, followed by hairy crabs. however, the volume of mooncakes is about 7.8 times that of the second-place hairy crabs.

however, it is not just hairy crabs that are hot. the trend of diversification of mid-autumn festival gift consumption is obvious. for example, affected by the mid-autumn festival, fruits have clearly entered the peak sales season: the fruit price index of the nan dabao market of the national development and reform commission's price monitoring center - monitored from august 31, 2024 to september 6, 2024: closed at 116.52 points, up 4.63% from the previous month; higher than the same period last year (september 2, 2023 to september 8, 2023), up 24.13% year-on-year.

in addition, many senior observers believe that: "personal health small appliances and cultural and creative co-branded products are emerging."

"in terms of local specialties, it's not just yangcheng lake hairy crabs that dominate the market. specialties from other places are also becoming more popular. for example, i also received yunnan mushrooms, shanxi's specialties, and intangible cultural heritage from other places." internet analyst ding dao shi told xiaoba.

in addition to mooncakes, the situation of tea and wine, the "traditional majors" of mid-autumn festival beverage consumption, is also not good.

according to tian youlong, a tea brand marketing expert and distinguished professor at china tea business school, this year's mid-autumn festival market in the tea industry generally showed "three reductions": a decrease in the number of customers, a decrease in the number of orders, and a decrease in gift pricing.

"the customers for mid-autumn festival gift tea have always been stable and had a large base. this year there was a plunge and the customer base has dropped significantly," he said.

liquor merchants in various places are also generally pessimistic. for example, a liquor distributor of huizhou liquor said recently that the sales during the mid-autumn festival in 2024 will basically end, and the sales volume of terminal stores will drop by 15%-20% year-on-year. it is expected that the total sales volume during the mid-autumn festival and national day will drop by 10%-15% year-on-year; zhang qiang, a senior executive of the sichuan liquor circulation association, told the media: "during the mid-autumn festival this year, sales are expected to drop by 20%-30% in general."

the hot and cold situation is very different from the common perception of mid-autumn festival consumption

mooncakes emphasize cost-effectiveness, the hairy crab industry is divided into three factions, what is the future of consumption of each major category?

overall, this year's mid-autumn festival gift-giving sent out more diversified signals.

from the perspective of macro data, according to data from the china baking food and sugar products industry association, in 2023, my country's mooncake production will be 320,000 tons, with sales of 22 billion yuan.this year's mid-autumn festival mooncake production and sales are expected to be about 300,000 tons and 20 billion yuan respectively, which means that a market of 20,000 tons and 2 billion yuan may disappear.

there are two more intuitive data phenomena worth noting, but the mooncake category has also undergone a "transformation" as a result, which is mainly reflected in two points:

▶▷first, the trend of cost-effectiveness of mooncake consumption. according to the "2024 douyin e-commerce mooncake industry trend insight" by archaeology plus: douyin mooncake products are mainly priced below 200 yuan, and mooncakes above 500 yuan are gradually withdrawing from the market; the "2024 mid-autumn mooncake industry trend" report shows that the price of mooncake gift boxes is between 70 and 220 yuan, accounting for the largest proportion.

for specific platforms, the situation may be even more exaggerated. for example, chen sihai, a senior buyer of benlai.com, revealed the overall price range of mooncakes on his platform to xiaoba: "mooncakes priced under 50 yuan account for nearly 50%, those priced between 50 yuan and 100 yuan account for nearly 30%, and those priced under 100 yuan account for 80% of the total."

▶▷second, the sugar-free and low-sugar mooncake market has grown significantly, and local specialty mooncakes have become popular.jd.comdata shows that in 2023, sales of sugar-free and low-sugar mooncakes will generally show an increase of more than 20%.

low-sugar mooncakes are placed in the most prominent promotional position in the supermarket

the sales volume of henan's pang donglai large mooncakes is about 200 million yuan a year. the price has been raised from 29.8 yuan to 119 yuan, which has triggered a large number of imitations. "pang donglai's same mooncakes" have become an emerging mooncake sales track.

shanxi's "hollow mooncakes" became popular due to the domestic game "black myth: wukong". its unique shape and taste have been called for by netizens to be "popularized nationwide."

in addition, the "provincial doctor mooncakes" from the guizhou provincial people's hospital and the "master lu" mooncakes from henan's century-old brand are both dark horses in the mooncake industry this year.

there is a sharp internal division in the mooncake industry. some mooncakes will be eliminated, but there is still huge potential for development in the entire mooncake track.this also applies to the tea and liquor industries.

while the mooncake, tea and liquor categories are undergoing rapid adjustments, can the hairy crab category continue to advance by leaps and bounds?

according to zhiyan consulting data, the production of hairy crabs increased from 748,700 tons in 2016 to 839,000 tons in 2023, and the demand increased from 743,000 tons to 844,300 tons in 2023. among them, the growth in the past three years was obvious, and the production and demand reached the level of 800,000 tons. in 2023, the wholesale market size of hairy crabs was 33.357 billion yuan, which was 963 million yuan less than that in 2022, but the market size was significantly higher than the mooncake market.

the current hairy crab market is generally hot, and there are three trends after the festival, which shows that the hairy crab category is not all smooth sailing.

one group is the "pessimists", and their representative view is: "the overall decline is 30%, and many customers' demand is not as much as before, and some even stop purchasing."

one group is the "cautious group," whose representative view is: "of course we are worried, but we raise lake crabs. we have accumulated online customers over the past two years, and the customers who eat lake crabs are relatively stable. if sales are not good in early november, we will lower the price."

there is also the "optimists", whose representative view is: "no matter what the situation is, we still have to eat in the fall. from the perspective of gift giving, hairy crabs are still of a certain grade. mooncakes tend to look cheap, and cigarettes and alcohol are so expensive. compared with mooncakes, it can still be sold until the new year." tang wuping, the founder of bohu crab, who has ten years of industry experience, told xiaoba.

the internal structural adjustments of these major mid-autumn festival consumer categories will provide enough "sunshine and rain" for fruits, healthy small appliances, cultural and creative products, local specialties, and even a reunion dinner and a short trip.

big head has something to say

tan ye

founder of youwei catering acceleration phase

the holiday gift market will definitely undergo structural adjustments.

due to the economic environment, the overall consumption atmosphere during this year's mid-autumn festival is relatively sluggish. the shipments of many mooncake manufacturers have plummeted by more than 30%. liquor and mooncakes, the two favorite mid-autumn festival gifts in the past, have shown signs of falling out of favor this year. the enthusiasm for business interaction on the corporate side has declined significantly compared with previous years, and the demand for personal exchanges has remained stable, but there are signs of migration in terms of budget and category selection.

due to the impact of logistics during the epidemic period, the hairy crab market has been silent for several years. the suppressed demand on the supply and consumer sides has been released this year, but whether this situation can continue remains to be seen.

in addition, small personal health appliances and cultural and creative co-branded products have emerged as a new force. after the epidemic, people are more pursuing "small happiness" and pay more attention to health value and emotional value. the traffic guidance of new media platforms such as xiaohongshu and douyin also plays a catalytic role in this.

as the overall economic environment comes under pressure, the holiday gift market must make structural adjustments in line with overall consumer willingness, consumer capacity, and consumer preferences.

chen sihai

senior buyer at benlai.com

the sales of well-known brands have declined severely and they have been replaced by others.

we understand that the overall mooncake market will decline by about 10%-20%.

the sales of some well-known brands with high market share have declined severely, and they have begun to be replaced by other products with good quality but relatively low prices. this may be a trend in the future. users will have higher requirements for quality-price ratio and cost-effectiveness.

but this year our mooncake sales have grown by 30%, of which our own brands have grown by more than 20% and personalized customization has grown by more than 30%. the main features are healthy nutrition, low sugar and low fat, and personalized customization.

as for hairy crabs, hairy crab coupons are the main sales at this stage, and they are quite popular. this year, the mid-autumn festival and national day were very close in previous years, but this year they are separated by nearly half a month, so many companies will put their welfare budget on the national day. crab coupons are one way to do this.

in addition, seasonal products are selling well. for example, fruits that are suitable for the mid-autumn festival and have good meanings, such as pomelo, pomegranate, winter jujube, kiwi fruit, and exotic fruit, are quite popular. this year, the overall production capacity of zespri kiwi fruit has increased compared to last year, and the price has been reduced, which is also based on market changes. there is also a significant increase in beef and mutton.

citizens buying fruits before the mid-autumn festival

otherwise, consumption of alcohol and tea is relatively stable. for example, the price adjustment of moutai this year is relatively stable.

i personally think that the mid-autumn festival market has great potential in the future, but the key lies in the continuous improvement of the company's own organizational capabilities, supply chain construction, customer experience, etc., taking these as core competitiveness and constantly optimizing and adjusting them.

tang wuping

founder of bohu crab

no matter what the general environment is, if you want to eat hairy crabs, you must eat them, and the chinese market is so huge.

i started to deal in hairy crabs in 2014. i’m from gucheng town, gaochun. hairy crabs are a local specialty. the annual growth rate is not particularly large, and is stable at around 30%.

we don't blindly pursue listing. many people are selling hairy crabs now, but we don't sell them at all, because they haven't grown well and the roe hasn't hardened. we want to wait until the crabs are really grown before shipping. why is the price so high before the mid-autumn festival? the whole is not mature, and a small part is listed, but there is still demand in the mid-autumn festival anyway, and the supply is in short supply at this stage.

on this basis, we make the packaging better - i designed the packaging myself, so it is more meaningful. in terms of the market, we tend to explore high-quality self-media big vs for cooperation - they all want to accept advertisements and promote products at the same time, and these are our main strategies. therefore, i don’t raise prices every day like e-commerce, which is tiring and unprofitable.

from the perspective of gift giving, it is true that many old customers say they don’t want to give gifts anymore, but there are also many old customers who are giving gifts, and many new customers are introduced. anyway, gifts should still be given, and good customers are giving gifts every year, and the purchasing volume is increasing.

author of this article | lin bo | responsibilityeditor | he mengfei

editor-in-chief | he mengfei | image source |VCG