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reporter of china business network: bao jingjing editors of china business network: lu xiangyong, chen mengyu

on september 14, the national bureau of statistics released the basic conditions of the national real estate market from january to august 2024 and the changes in the sales prices of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in august.

from january to august, the national real estate development investment was 6928.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.2% (calculated on a comparable basis); among them, residential investment decreased by 10.5%. the sales area of ​​new commercial housing in the country was 606.02 million square meters, and the sales volume was 5972.3 billion yuan, down 18.0% and 23.6% year-on-year respectively. in august, the real estate development prosperity index was 92.35, which has been rising for four consecutive months.

liu aihua, spokesperson and chief economist of the national bureau of statistics, said at a press conference held by the state council information office: judging from the published main indicators of the real estate market, under the influence of a series of policy measures, some indicators have shown a marginal narrowing.judging from these changes, the current real estate market continues to be in the process of adjustment.

liu aihua said that from the perspective of future development, china's urbanization process is continuing to advance, and the new model of real estate development is being accelerated. the real estate market still has great potential and space. we must continue to adhere to the policy of taking measures based on the city, accelerate the implementation of various policies, and promote the real estate market to gradually achieve stable and healthy development, so as to play a better role in better meeting the housing needs of the people.

zhang bo, director of the 58 anjuke research institute, pointed out: "the downward trend of housing prices in august has expanded, and the number of cities with rising prices for new and second-hand houses has decreased. the overall supply of the new housing market has continued to decrease, and as buyers remain on the sidelines, market demand is still not boosted. compared with new homes, second-hand homes have a clear trade-off in price and perform better in terms of transaction volume."

shanghai real estate market daily economic news data map

among the first-tier cities, only shanghai saw an increase in

wang zhonghua, chief statistician of the national bureau of statistics' urban management department, interpreted the data and said that among the four first-tier cities, only shanghai's new home prices rose by 0.6% month-on-month and 4.9% year-on-year in august.

newly built commercial housing sales price index in 70 large and medium-sized cities in august 2024 source: national bureau of statistics

in terms of city levels, the price of new homes in first-tier cities fell by 0.3% month-on-month, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. among them, beijing, guangzhou and shenzhen fell by 0.5%, 0.5% and 0.8% respectively. the sales prices of newly built commercial residential properties in second- and third-tier cities fell by 0.7% and 0.8% month-on-month respectively, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.

among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, new home prices rose month-on-month in 2 cities, fell in 67 cities, and remained unchanged in 1 city; year-on-year, new home prices rose in 2 cities, and fell in 68 cities. it is worth noting thatthe price of new homes in shanghai rose by 0.6% month-on-month and 4.9% year-on-year; the year-on-year increase in xi'an also reached 2.9%.

among the cities where housing prices fell, kunming saw the largest month-on-month drop of 2%; cities such as fuzhou, quanzhou, wenzhou, dali, and xiamen saw declines between 1% and 2%; cities such as xiamen, guangzhou, and jinhua saw year-on-year declines of more than 10%; in addition, 41 cities saw year-on-year declines of more than 5%.

yan yuejin, deputy director of the e-house research institute, analyzed that the august housing price index showed several major characteristics. first, it encountered resistance in the previous recovery process, which indirectly shows that real estate companies have increased their efforts to cut prices and promote sales during the off-season, and it is also related to the relaxation of price controls in various places. second, recent city data show that strong first-tier and second-tier cities will become the pioneers of the housing market recovery, which also means that cities with a fast population influx and more industrial development opportunities will have better market performance.

second-hand housing prices are still falling nationwide

according to the data from the national bureau of statistics, the sales price of second-hand residential properties in first-tier cities fell by 0.9% month-on-month, a 0.4 percentage point increase from the previous month. among them, beijing, shanghai, guangzhou and shenzhen fell by 1.0%, 0.6%, 0.7% and 1.3% respectively. the sales price of second-hand residential properties in second- and third-tier cities fell by 1.0% and 0.9% month-on-month, a 0.2 and 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month respectively.

according to simple arithmetic average calculations by the e-house research institute, house prices in first-, second- and third-tier cities fell by 0.9%, 1.0% and 0.9% month-on-month in august, respectively; year-on-year declines were 9.4%, 8.6% and 8.5%.among them, the month-on-month decline in the second-hand housing price index in first-tier cities has widened, indicating that the overall discount on second-hand housing prices is relatively large.

in particular, 66 of the 70 cities saw a year-on-year decline of more than 5%, and 20 cities, including hot cities such as xiamen, wuhan and guangzhou, saw a decline of more than 10% (inclusive).

yan yuejin pointed out: "what needs to be vigilant is that after the relaxation of the purchase restriction policy, some second-hand housing transactions were good. if the subsequent potential demand does not keep up, the second-hand housing transactions in some cities will also encounter pressure."

regarding the "golden september and silver october", xu yuejin, deputy director of research at china index academy, analyzed that: "the market has entered the traditional peak season, and the activity of the new home market in core cities may pick up slightly, but the sharp reduction in land supply in the previous period will restrict the supply capacity of real estate companies, thereby dragging down the recovery of sales. at the same time, long-term factors such as residents' income expectations have not improved significantly, and the overall new home market is still under pressure. with price in exchange for volume, the second-hand housing market in key cities is still expected to maintain a certain degree of activity. with further easing of policies and the weakening of the high base effect in the second half of the year, the year-on-year decline in new home sales nationwide is expected to continue to narrow, but residents' wait-and-see sentiment and housing price expectations will still drag down the rhythm of market recovery. in the short term, the overall market is still in the bottoming stage."

in the first eight months, 5972.3 billion yuan was sold

from january to august, the national real estate development investment was 6928.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.2% (calculated on a comparable basis); of which, residential investment was 5262.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.5%. the sales area of ​​new houses was 606.02 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 18.0%, of which residential sales area decreased by 20.4%; the sales of newly built commercial houses was 5972.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.6%, of which residential sales decreased by 25.0%.

china index academy pointed out that the decline in the area of ​​newly started housing has narrowed for six consecutive months. from january to august, the funds in place for real estate companies were 7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.2%, and the decline has narrowed for five consecutive months.

specifically, from january to august, the housing construction area of ​​real estate development enterprises was 7094.20 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 12.0%. among them, the residential construction area was 4960.52 million square meters, a decrease of 12.6%. the newly started housing area was 494.65 million square meters, a decrease of 22.5%. among them, the newly started residential area was 359.09 million square meters, a decrease of 23.0%. the completed housing area was 333.94 million square meters, a decrease of 23.6%. among them, the completed residential area was 243.93 million square meters, a decrease of 23.2%.

from january to august, the funds in place for real estate developers amounted to 6993.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.2%. among them, domestic loans amounted to 1022.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.1%; self-raised funds amounted to 2515.0 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.4%; deposits and advance payments decreased by 30.2%; and personal mortgage loans decreased by 35.8%.

under the combined influence of supply and funds, at the end of august, the area of ​​commercial housing for sale was 737.83 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, of which the area of ​​residential housing for sale increased by 21.5%.

xu yuejin believes: "on the supply side, real estate development investment is still at a low level, with the cumulative decline remaining the same as last month, as market sales have not yet recovered, corporate funds are under pressure, and land transactions continue to shrink. the cumulative decline in new construction continues to narrow slightly due to the low base. overall, the operating pressure on real estate companies has not yet eased, and it may be difficult for real estate development investment and new construction to change the downward trend in the short term."

reporter|bao jingjingeditor|lu xiangyong chen mengyu du bo

proofreading|cheng peng