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science and technology innovation board daily, september 14 the hbm capacity shortage seems to have only just passed, and the expectation of overcapacity has already arrived.

recently, exane bnp paribas, the securities division of bnp paribas, significantly downgraded micron's rating.the stock price was lowered from outperforming to underperforming, and the target price was halved from $140 to $67.the reason is the concern about hbm overcapacity and its impact on traditional dram pricing.

the bank noted that dram prices are correcting faster than expected due to an oversupply of hbm, which could lead to a recession in the broader dram market.

it expects that by the end of 2025, hbm production capacity will significantly exceed demand, which will further depress prices:by the end of 2024, hbm's installed monthly wafer production capacity will have reached 315,000 pieces, and will reach about 400,000 pieces by 2025 - while the demand during the same period is 168,000 pieces, which is less than 1/2 of the supply.

exane bnp paribas further pointed out that by 2025, micron's performance will lag behind other ai semiconductor manufacturers, mainly because of the oversupply of hbm, which has lowered the average selling price of micron's memory chips; and if micron's memory chips are indeed reduced in price, the stock price may even fall below the target price of us$67.

both sk hynix and micron have previously mentioned that the hbm production capacity for 2024 has been sold out, and the production capacity for 2025 has been basically allocated; sk hynix also stated that order visibility can reach the first quarter of 2026.

a research report by huafu securities in june pointed out that according to estimates, hbm demand will double in 2024 and 2025, and demand is expected to reach 2.08 billion gb in 2025, and the overall market size is expected to reach us$31.1 billion. considering the time difference between hbm and gpu shipments and the hbm inventory establishment of gpu manufacturers, even if the original factory expands production on a large scale, hbm will still be in short supply for a long time in the future. based on this, the original factory has negotiated prices for hbm in 2025 in q2 this year, and the price has been initially increased by 5~10%.

it is worth mentioning thatas one of hbm's main customers, nvidia's demand for gpus will also affect the demand for hbm to a certain extent.

huang renxun has already handed out a "reassurance" this week. he said at the goldman sachs technology conference that "the demand (for popular chip products) is too strong. everyone hopes to be the first to get it, and everyone wants to order the most." he added that customer demand for the latest generation of blackwell chips is strong. "it's really tight, and we are doing our best."

overall, exane bnp paribas seems to be the first institution to warn of "hbm overcapacity" in the current situation.

however, it must be admitted that semiconductors are a highly cyclical industry. after the upswing cycle of "demand explosion, shortage and price increase, investment and expansion", it is often followed by a recession cycle of "demand shrinkage, overcapacity, and price decline". hbm also has difficulty getting out of this cycle. now that the first alarm bell has sounded, is the reversal really coming? investors are waiting for an answer.