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introduction

the era when second-tier master's degrees are everywhere is coming soon.

01

a new round of academic qualifications is coming.

why did many people give up 985 universities and flock to police academies and colleges in this year's college entrance examination?

why are many universities extending the duration of master's and doctoral programs and no longer providing dormitories?

in the future, will there be a scene where korean masters and doctoral students crowd into milk tea shops and taiwanese masters compete for cleaners?

first, let me give you some data. in the past 10 years, the number of graduate students enrolled in china has more than doubled, soaring from 620,000 in 2014 to 1.3 million.

some time ago, further signals of the devaluation of academic qualifications brought a new blow.

this year, the country will add 2,755 new master's and doctoral degree programs, which is a direct "expansion" of 15% based on the existing 18,442 (to be announced in 2022)!

separately, the number of doctoral degree-granting programs expanded by 18.6% and master's degree programs expanded by 13.7%.

the speed at which academic qualifications are released is faster than the speed at which money is released.

and you will find that for master's degree authorization points with slightly lower gold content and targeted at college students, (according to qingta data), there were 2,090 recommended by local governments this time, and 1,924 were approved. basically, "all comers are accepted", which is simply a targeted release of funds.

a large number of second-tier universities, such as huaiyin normal university, taizhou university, guangxi university of finance and economics... proposed to add more than a dozen master's programs, and the pass rate was 100%.

the era when second-tier master's degrees are everywhere is coming soon.

so why is the expansion of master's and doctoral degree authorization points across the country suddenly accelerating?

a closer look reveals a trend:

a large proportion of the expanded degree programs are professional master's and doctoral programs. of the 1,924 newly added master's programs, 1,534 are professional master's programs.

in march this year, the ministry of education also said that by the end of the 14th five-year plan, the enrollment scale of professional master's programs will account for about two-thirds of the total enrollment scale of master's programs.

the era of professional master's degrees, which have always been criticized as "low-end versions of master's degrees", has arrived.

what are the impacts?

in theory, professional master's and doctoral degrees focus more on application, emphasizing the ability to use professional knowledge to analyze and solve practical problems. cultivating these talents is conducive to supporting industrial development.

but in reality, for every graduate student, it means two problems:"the duration of study is longer" and "the tuition fees are higher".

in the future, even if you are studying for a master's degree, you will need at least three years, and for a doctorate, it will take at least four years. the time cost of education will increase further.

then the tuition fees for professional master's degrees, which are already higher than academic master's degrees, are still rising sharply.

(according to the paper) the most exaggerated major, international business at donghua university, has increased from less than 10,000 yuan per academic year to 79,000 yuan in 2022.

in addition, a large number of universities, including peking university, beijing normal university, and nanjing university, have announced that they will no longer provide dormitories for master's students, which has further increased the cost of renting a house.

of course, from a positive perspective, the combination of "extending the school system", "increasing tuition fees" and "not providing dormitories" not only helps everyone delay employment pressure, but also promotes the consumption of school parents and may also stimulate the off-campus rental market.

winning is numb.

so, do you think it is a good thing or a bad thing that a larger number of people will pursue graduate and doctoral degrees in the future?

02

there are 19.65 million undergraduate students in china, and we need to weigh the pros and cons again and again.

in an era of academic "inflation", the pace is getting faster and faster.

there have been several very abnormal changes this year, which would not have been possible for a normal person in the past.

one is that it may be more difficult for graduate students to find jobs than for undergraduates.

according to zhaopin.com data, the offer-receiving rate for master's and doctoral graduates from non-key universities is 33.2%, which is lower than the undergraduate students from non-key universities (43.9%) for the first time in history.

the reason is not complicated, it can be summed up in four words: "supply and demand mismatch". companies nowadays may only want to recruit undergraduates with a monthly salary of 5,000 yuan, rather than postgraduates who have higher psychological expectations and want 6,000 to 7,000 yuan or even more than 10,000 yuan.

another change is that the higher the education level, the salary may decrease instead of increase.

a paper from zhejiang university found that half of job seekers have higher educational qualifications than the job requirements, which can result in a 5.1% "salary penalty", or a negative impact on salary.

"over-education" may lead to "salary penalty". the "stepping stone" for job hunting that i have worked hard for ten years has inadvertently hit me in the foot. it's so helpless.

another change is the national examination, which is the most significant weathervane.

by 2024, there will be 2,046 positions requiring a master's degree or above, an increase of 814 from the previous year.

there are 24 positions requiring a doctoral degree, 14 more than last year.

in the same year, the number of positions that require a bachelor's or college degree as the starting point decreased, and there were only 56 positions that college students could apply for.

this means that if you want to take this path, academic qualifications become an "involutionary game" that you have to participate in.

after all, one person's hard work can improve his score, but a group of people's hard work can only raise the passing score.

these changes are essentially inflation of academic qualifications.

academic qualifications are like all other currencies. when the supply continues to increase while jobs are limited, "depreciation of academic qualifications" will be inevitable.

in 1998, the number of graduate students admitted nationwide was only 58,000. in just one generation, it has risen to 1.3 million in 2023, which is terrifying.

what will happen next?

compared with developed countries such as europe and the united states, the number of registered graduate students per thousand people is 9, while in south korea it is about 5 to 7. we currently have only 2, and there is still several times room for growth.

the good news is that we have not yet reached the stage of “one master’s and doctoral degree per capita”; the bad news may be that we will reach this era sooner or later.

in the educationally advanced capital of beijing, the number of graduate students has surpassed that of undergraduates.

in south korea, more than half of the employed population have a bachelor’s degree or above. the phenomenon of high education and low employment has become intense. in a milk tea shop that has expanded to south korea, more than 60% of the employees are postgraduates or above, and there are four doctoral students working in the store!

overseas experience also tells us that to end internal circulation, we must provide enough jobs.

for example, in japan, which has entered the "anti-election era", with a high employment rate, the number of students pursuing graduate studies in japanese universities is basically around 12%; the proportion of students pursuing a doctorate has dropped from a peak of 16.9% in 1994 to around 10% today.

students born between 1987 and 2004 are called the "relaxed education generation" because they have less pressure to continue their studies. because they are not interested in pursuing a doctorate or graduate degree, japanese education is said to have entered the "ice age" and the number of international students needs to be increased.

so the question is, will our next step in the future be south korea or japan? it is worth pondering.