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second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities fell further, and housing demand remained weak

2024-09-14

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on september 14, the national bureau of statistics released august housing price data, and the relevant data trend continued to decline.

in terms of new commercial housing, in august, the sales price of new commercial housing in first-tier cities fell by 0.3% month-on-month, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. among them, beijing, guangzhou and shenzhen fell by 0.5%, 0.5% and 0.8% respectively, while shanghai rose by 0.6%.

the sales prices of newly built commercial housing in second-tier and third-tier cities fell by 0.7% and 0.8% month-on-month, respectively, and the decline was 0.1 percentage point larger than that of the previous month. overall, in august, only shanghai and nanjing had positive house price growth among the 70 cities, with shanghai leading the way with a 0.6% increase. the house price has been the highest for six consecutive months, making it a benchmark city for the current property market recovery.

except for a few cities where housing prices have risen, the overall new home market is still showing a downward trend in prices, and indicators have deteriorated.

"the month-on-month increase in the new commercial housing price index in 70 cities across the country was -0.7% in august. compared with the month-on-month increase of -0.6% in july, the indicator has deteriorated." yan yuejin, research director of the e-house research institute, said that this shows that the intensity of price cuts and promotions has increased in various places, and companies have a more urgent need to speed up inventory reduction and recover funds.

by city level, the housing price index of first-tier, second-tier and third-tier cities in august increased by -0.3%, -0.7% and -0.8% month-on-month, and -4.3%, -5.3% and -6.2% year-on-year. overall, only the data of first-tier cities performed well, and the month-on-month decline has continued to narrow since may, playing the role of "leader" in this round of property market recovery.

"the market's previous recovery process encountered resistance, which indirectly shows that during the off-season, real estate companies increased their efforts to cut prices and promote sales. of course, it is also related to the relaxation of price controls in various regions." yan yuejin said that recent urban data also showed that strong first-tier and second-tier cities will become the forerunners of the property market recovery, and cities with a fast population influx and more industrial development opportunities will have better market performance.

compared with the new housing market, the price adjustment in the second-hand housing market is more thorough.

in august, the sales prices of second-hand houses in first-tier cities fell by 0.9% month-on-month, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. among them, beijing, shanghai, guangzhou and shenzhen fell by 1.0%, 0.6%, 0.7% and 1.3% respectively.

while the month-on-month decline in second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities widened, second-hand residential sales prices in second- and third-tier cities fell by 1.0% and 0.9% month-on-month, respectively, with the decline also widening by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.

year-on-year, in august, second-hand housing sales prices in first-tier cities fell by 9.4% year-on-year, 0.6 percentage points wider than the previous month, with beijing, shanghai, guangzhou and shenzhen falling by 8.5%, 5.8%, 12.5% ​​and 10.8% respectively. second- and third-tier cities' second-hand housing sales prices fell by 8.6% and 8.5% year-on-year respectively.

"according to the arithmetic average calculation, the second-hand housing price index in 70 cities across the country increased by -0.9% month-on-month and -8.6% year-on-year in august. compared with the previous two months, the data in august was slightly weak." yan yuejin said that this shows that august is the off-season for the market, coupled with factors such as high temperatures, housing demand is weak, and landlords' price cuts and profit concessions are more obvious.

it is particularly noteworthy that the second-hand housing price index in first-tier cities fell further in august compared with the previous month. "second-hand housing prices are generally more favorable. one phenomenon that needs to be vigilant is that after the relaxation of purchase restrictions and other policies, some second-hand housing transactions were good, but if the subsequent potential demand does not keep up, second-hand housing transactions will also encounter pressure."

during the interview, the reporter found that in this year's second-hand housing market, the phenomenon of owners being forced to lower prices is extremely significant. a real estate agent said that the overall market is now a buyer's market. once the owner decides to sell the house, if he wants to sell it quickly, he must adjust the price to a lower level in the community or even a lower level in the region, so as to attract people to view the house. otherwise, it will be difficult for anyone to buy.

one shanghai homeowner said that he officially listed his house at the beginning of the year and thought it would be sold in a few months. however, he did not see the house for three consecutive months. he also needed funds urgently for the new house he booked. the agent said that if he wanted to sell it quickly, it would be best to lower the price to a competitive level in the community. "if i don't sell it, i will have financial pressure. if i sell it, i will be reluctant to do so, let alone sell it at a low price." this is the voice of many homeowners at present.

xu yuejin, deputy director of research at china index academy, told caixin that at present, the second-hand housing market as a whole continues the trend of "trading price for volume". some owners have a demand for replacement and improvement, and take advantage of the market low to improve their homes; in addition, some owners expect that housing prices will continue to decline, and choose to sell their houses to optimize asset allocation.

shenzhen real estate association also said that since august, the intensity of market competition has been significantly stronger than in the first half of the year, and the price concessions made by owners have a tendency to intensify further. the current "stable" basic foundation of the second-hand housing market is still not solid. "the seemingly stable recovery of the second-hand housing market this year is largely due to the concessions made by owners on prices."

regarding the above phenomenon, yan yuejin said that the biggest problem in the current second-hand housing market has been exposed: there are relatively few "buyers". the second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities have also fallen significantly, indicating that the second-hand housing market urgently needs a new development model, especially to increase potential housing demand, increase the original demolition and reconstruction of second-hand housing, and improve the non-residential use of second-hand housing. only in this way can the second-hand housing transaction market be truly boosted.