real estate developers are still conservative in acquiring land; from january to august, the national real estate development investment amounted to about 7 trillion yuan
2024-09-14
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on september 14, the national bureau of statistics released the basic situation of the national real estate market from january to august 2024. from january to august, the national real estate development investment was about 6.93 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.2%. it can be seen that the supply-side data performance is still weak, and real estate companies are still conservative in investing in land. in addition, from january to august, the sales of newly built commercial housing were about 5.97 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.6%.
according to industry insiders, current data shows that both supply and demand are still in the process of adjustment, and policy support needs to be strengthened. with the arrival of the traditional peak season of "golden september and silver october", real estate developers may increase their efforts to promote sales, and coupled with the further implementation of policy support, the market activity in core cities is expected to pick up slightly in the short term.
real estate development investment in the first eight months fell by 10% year-on-year
information from the national bureau of statistics shows that from january to august, national real estate development investment was about 6.93 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.2%; among them, residential investment was about 5.26 trillion yuan, a decrease of 10.5%.
according to yan yuejin, deputy director of shanghai e-house real estate research institute, from january to august, the year-on-year growth rate of national real estate development investment was -10.2%. at present, this indicator has been at a double-digit level for four consecutive months, indicating that the investment side is relatively weak. observing some of the current main land acquisition companies, their mentality has also changed, that is, they are more focused on land projects that are easy to cash in and high-quality cities, and their investment is obviously more conservative.
according to the information from the national bureau of statistics, from january to august, the housing construction area of real estate developers was about 7.094 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 12.0%. among them, the residential construction area was about 4.961 billion square meters, a decrease of 12.6%. the newly started housing area was 495 million square meters, a decrease of 22.5%. among them, the newly started residential area was 359 million square meters, a decrease of 23.0%. the completed housing area was 334 million square meters, a decrease of 23.6%. among them, the completed residential area was 244 million square meters, a decrease of 23.2%.
from the perspective of the newly started housing area index, it has been narrowing for six consecutive months. yan yuejin believes that this is mainly due to the good financial situation of the newly started enterprises and the active efforts of the financing coordination mechanism. local governments have implemented better support conditions for newly started projects, which will also help to speed up the pre-sale and delivery of subsequent projects. in addition, although the year-on-year decline in the national housing completion area has widened, a big reason is that real estate companies have acquired less land in recent years, which has affected the completion data. the overall work of ensuring the delivery of houses in various places is still progressing in an orderly manner.
in terms of sales and pending sales of newly built commercial housing, the national bureau of statistics showed that from january to august, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was about 606 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 18.0%, of which residential sales area decreased by 20.4%. the sales of newly built commercial housing was about 5.97 trillion yuan, a decrease of 23.6%, of which residential sales decreased by 25.0%. as of the end of august, the area of commercial housing for sale was about 738 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%. among them, the area of residential housing for sale increased by 21.5%.
the year-on-year decline in the sales area of commercial housing nationwide has narrowed for three consecutive months. yan yuejin believes that the cancellation of the price limit policy for commercial housing in various places will help real estate companies to actively adjust prices according to market conditions, and will also help to better match the supply and demand relationship with prices. in addition, the year-on-year growth rate of the area of commercial housing for sale nationwide has been declining for three consecutive months, which is closely related to the improvement of sales data. of course, the work of destocking needs to continue, because it is related to the cash flow and financial stability of real estate companies.
industry: real estate is still in a stage of continuous adjustment
it is worth noting that from january to august, the amount of funds in place for real estate companies across the country has shown a trend of narrowing the decline for five consecutive months. specifically, according to information from the national bureau of statistics, from january to august, the funds in place for real estate developers were about 6.99 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.2%. among them, domestic loans were about 1.02 trillion yuan, a decrease of 5.1%; foreign capital utilization was 2 billion yuan, a decrease of 42.4%; self-raised funds were 2.52 trillion yuan, a decrease of 8.4%; deposits and advance payments were 2.1 trillion yuan, a decrease of 30.2%; and personal mortgage loans were 992 billion yuan, a decrease of 35.8%.
"overall, the external financial support this year is unprecedentedly strong. local governments have given great support to the work of ensuring the delivery of houses and the white list system, which also ensures that some projects can obtain better financial support." yan yuejin said.
summarizing the real estate development and sales data for the first eight months, yan yuejin believes that this fully demonstrates that the real estate industry is still in a continuous adjustment phase. first, the supply-side data performance is weak, and we must be vigilant about the problem that some high-quality real estate companies are more conservative in investing in land. second, the existing housing purchase policies and financial support still play a positive role. this also shows to a large extent that all localities must continue to implement and absorb the existing policies. third, many indicators continue to be in negative growth, which will lead to potential risks. all localities should strengthen assessments and improve their sense of responsibility and efficiency from the perspective of risk prevention.
zhang dawei, chief analyst of centaline property, believes that with the arrival of the traditional peak season of "golden september and silver october", both the intensity of launching and marketing in hot cities will be enhanced. in the short term, the activity of the new and second-hand housing markets in core cities may rebound slightly, and the overall transaction volume in september is expected to rise. overall, it will take some time for the demand for the property market, the income and confidence of home buyers to recover in 2024, and they are still in the process of gradually bottoming out. the market also expects stronger policies. to stabilize the real estate market after the "golden september and silver october", more policies need to be introduced recently.
in addition, analysts at the china index academy also believe that considering that my country's real estate market is still in a deep adjustment stage, the government is expected to continue to adhere to the strategy of combining digestion of existing stocks with optimization of incremental stocks to promote the market to stabilize faster. on the demand side, there is still a lot of room for optimization of purchase restrictions in first-tier cities, such as reducing the social security period, relaxing purchase restrictions in suburban areas, adjusting the number of sets, etc. at the same time, continuing to lower mortgage interest rates and increasing the deduction of personal income tax for mortgage interest may be the direction of demand-side policy optimization to further reduce residents' housing purchase costs. overall, with the arrival of the traditional peak season of "golden september and silver october", real estate companies may increase their efforts to promote sales, and coupled with the further implementation of policy support, the market activity in core cities is expected to pick up slightly in the short term.
photo by yuan xiuli, a reporter from the beijing news/screenshot of the national bureau of statistics official website
edited by yang juanjuan and proofread by zhao lin
