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"the market has been relatively quiet since august, and (transactions) have declined sharply." on the morning of september 9, a person from a new housing project in shenzhen lamented to a reporter from the "daily economic news".

according to shenzhen centaline research center, 2,537 first-hand residential properties were signed online in shenzhen in august, down 3.0% from the previous month. entering september, the new home market has not shown a clear recovery trend. last week, a total of 416 new homes were sold in the city, down 10.9% from the previous month; the total area was 42,739 square meters, down 11.1% from the previous month.

because the shenzhen market had sluggish transactions in august, many real estate project marketers are looking forward to traditional peak sales seasons such as "golden september and silver october".

on the one hand, most projects are still attracting customers by offering discounts and promotions; on the other hand, the promotional elements of new homes have also begun to change, with more emphasis on actual occupancy rate, quality, etc. in addition, offline "housing fairs" are more frequent than before.

the focus of project promotion has changed

according to data from the midland realty research center, shenzhen sold a total of 4,081 commercial housing units covering 467,400 square meters in august, a 60.5% increase from the previous month, but overall supply is still at a low level.

data from the shenzhen municipal housing and urban-rural development bureau's real estate information platform showed that as of the end of august, shenzhen's first-hand residential inventory area was 509,700 square meters, totaling 50,500 units, up 3.1% from the previous month. based on the average number of registered units in the past 12 months, the first-hand residential sales cycle in shenzhen rose to 22.2 months at the end of august, 0.4 months longer than in july, and inventory pressure increased again.

recently, a reporter from the china business network visited the site and learned that most new housing projects in shenzhen currently have discounts to varying degrees, and some projects have begun to use the house ratio and housing quality as important selling points.

among them, zhongzhou yingxi (registered name yingxi garden) located in the longhua area is a project recommended by many real estate agencies recently. at the same time, because of its relatively large discounts, it has attracted many home buyers.

photo taken by reporter chen ronghao at the yingxi garden project site

according to liu ying, a real estate agent in the area, "the project has a large discount, with a 17% discount on the opening price, which is considered a good sale in longhua." take a 97-square-meter house as an example. the original price was 6.75 million yuan, and the discounted price was 5.84 million yuan, which is equivalent to a unit price of about 60,200 yuan per square meter.

according to the shenzhen real estate information platform, yingxi garden was registered on june 19 this year, with a total of 746 units. as of september 10, there were 423 units for sale, and the overall sales rate was about 43.3%.

photo taken by reporter chen ronghao of qianhai future city project site

the qianhai future city project located in the bao'an area has now opened its marketing center. since september, many real estate agents have also begun to recommend the project.

on the afternoon of september 10, at the project marketing center, property consultant manager deng told reporters that the project is still in the customer accumulation stage, so the official price has not yet been announced, and it is expected to be officially launched in late september.

the floor space ratio has become an important promotional point for the project. "this project was built after the new regulations on floor space planning in shenzhen, so the overall actual floor space ratio is better than that before the new regulations, and it can currently reach 87% to 96%."

in the yongjing model room of convention and exhibition bay, the project directly indicates the craftsmanship used, and the property consultants will also use the craftsmanship and quality of the property as important promotional points to explain to customers why the unit price of the property is more expensive than surrounding projects.

according to data from the shenzhen real estate information platform, the exhibition bay yongjing was officially registered in august last year, with a total of 778 units, with an average sales price of about 47,000 yuan per square meter. as of september 10, the project had 343 units for sale, with an overall sales rate of about 56%.

the reporter of the economic daily noted that in addition to the change in the focus of project promotion, offline real estate fairs have also become more frequent. since the beginning of this year, shenzhen has successively held "good house tasting meetings" in futian, bao'an, longhua, nanshan and other areas. generally, local housing and construction departments, street offices, housing associations and other organizations set up platforms for developers and potential owners to complete transactions offline.

second-hand housing sales are much better than new housing sales

second-hand housing transactions are much better than new housing transactions. generally, monthly new housing transactions are less than 3,000 units, but second-hand housing transactions are mostly between 3,000 and 4,000 units, and can even reach 4,500 units in some months.

monthly trend of first-hand and second-hand residential transactions in shenzhen source: shenzhen centaline research center

in its research report, centaline property mentioned that since the fourth quarter of 2023, the bargaining space for second-hand houses in shenzhen has remained above 7% for a long time, and continued to rise slightly this year. the trend of "trading price for volume" is obvious, and by august this year, the bargaining space reached 7.9%.

"currently, the price-performance ratio of second-hand houses is significantly better than that of new houses, and it is expected that second-hand houses will continue to be favored by the market," said centaline property.

in fact, compared with the same period last year, the activity of shenzhen's second-hand housing market has increased significantly.

according to the securities times, the shenzhen real estate agency association believes that "trading price for volume" has become the fundamental reason supporting the current relatively high monthly level of the second-hand housing market. however, the sustainability of "trading price for volume" remains to be verified. according to the daily visits and communication feedback from brokerage agencies, since august, the intensity and strength of market competition have been significantly stronger than in the first half of the year, and the "concession" of owners' prices has a tendency to further intensify. the current "stable" basic foundation of the second-hand housing market is still not solid.

the reporter of the economic daily learned in an interview that compared with new houses, the price of second-hand houses in shenzhen has fallen more significantly. at present, the prices of most second-hand houses in shenzhen have fallen by 30% to 40% compared with the previous peak, making them more cost-effective.

for example, in the nigang area of ​​luohu, honggang garden, the age of the buildings is generally over 30 years, and most of them are small-sized. the owner listed a 73-square-meter three-bedroom and one-living room apartment for 2.8 million yuan, equivalent to a unit price of about 38,300 yuan per square meter, which is not only lower than the government reference price of 49,500 yuan per square meter, but also much lower than the peak price of more than 60,000 yuan per square meter in 2021.

such price corrections have also been seen in some popular projects in the past. taking longguang jiulongtai in guangming district as an example, the average opening price of the first and second phases of the project was around 45,000 yuan/square meter and 48,000 yuan/square meter. in 2021, some units hit a high price of 83,500 yuan/square meter, which was double the opening price.

judging from the unit price of second-hand houses sent by the agency, the price of the project has now dropped back to the "5-digit" range. a house of 102.2 square meters is sold for 5.6 million yuan, equivalent to a unit price of 54,800 yuan per square meter.

data from the leyoujia research center shows that as of the end of august, the average transaction price of second-hand houses in shenzhen was about 59,000 yuan per square meter, a slight decrease of 0.34% month-on-month; but compared with last year, it has fallen by about 10,400 yuan per square meter. at the beginning of 2021, the transaction price of second-hand houses in shenzhen was around 83,000 yuan per square meter.

leyoujia research center believes that shenzhen's second-hand housing prices have entered a downward range since the second half of 2021, and then continued to fall for three years. "price for volume" is a trend rather than a short cycle. at the same time, when the average price is close to 60,000 yuan/square meter, the increase in volume is becoming more and more obvious.

ren zhuang, general manager of the secondary market strategy center of centaline property, mentioned that judging from centaline's second-hand housing price index, most cities in china have seen a significant correction in the past two to three years, including shenzhen, changsha, fuzhou, jinan and other cities where second-hand housing transactions have been relatively active in the past two years.

"the overall real estate market in shenzhen is currently facing certain pressures, mainly due to the low sales rate of the first-hand housing market, the high inventory pressure, and the obvious correction of second-hand housing prices." ren zhuang analyzed that as a city with investment appeal, shenzhen's real estate market still has potential, but the future trend of real estate may rely more on rental return rate rather than pure house prices. investors can consider rental return rate as an important reference indicator.