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dark horse

after china's annual automobile production and sales exceeded 30 million, the new energy market is still growing. in addition to pure electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid models have gradually become popular in the past one or two years, gradually becoming the mainstream of the new energy vehicle track from transitional products.

data shows that the market share of pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles has changed from 7:3 in 2023 to 6:4 today. judging from the current situation, this trend is still expanding.

at the just concluded chengdu auto show, plug-in hybrid versions of mercedes-benz glc, volvo family, trumpchi e8+, hongqi hs7 phev, xingtu yaoguang and many other products were unveiled/launched. in addition, xiaopeng motors and skoda were also exposed to plans related to plug-in hybrid technology. more and more car companies are adding plug-in hybrid models, which seems to confirm that this market segment is broader than expected.

the latest data from the china passenger car association shows that in july, the national passenger car market sold 1.72 million vehicles, of which 878,000 were new energy passenger cars. the monthly retail penetration rate exceeded 50% for the first time, reaching 51.1%, a year-on-year increase of 15%. among them, the retail sales of pure electric models and plug-in hybrid models were 482,000 and 396,000 respectively, up 14.3% and 80.4% year-on-year respectively. obviously, plug-in hybrid models have become the main growth force of new energy passenger cars.

"in july, the sales growth of plug-in hybrid models was much higher than that of pure electric models, becoming the main factor in the current growth in new energy vehicle sales." chen shihua, deputy secretary-general of the china association of automobile manufacturers, analyzed that more and more plug-in hybrid models are entering the market, which has increased the market competitiveness of such models and promoted sales growth.

plug-in hybrid vehicles, which were once questioned and seen as a transitional product from the era of fuel vehicles to new energy vehicles, now seem to be becoming mainstream and are showing a trend of competing with pure electric vehicles.

new products frequently released

due to changes in market conditions and customer demand, volvo, one of the first companies to announce its full electrification goals, found that it was unlikely to achieve its goal of having a fully electrified vehicle lineup by the end of 2030. therefore, volvo decided to adjust its production planning and shift its focus to hybrid models.

volvo's new goal is that by 2030, 90%-100% of its global sales will consist of electrified vehicles, including a combination of fully electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles and mild hybrid models.

at the chengdu auto show which opened on august 30, the luxury plug-in hybrid family consisting of volvo xc60 plug-in hybrid, s60 plug-in hybrid, xc90 plug-in hybrid and s90 plug-in hybrid models made their collective debut.

"the current user demands in the automobile market are not the same. some users prefer pure electric vehicles, while others value the long battery life and driving quality of plug-in hybrid vehicles. only when car companies meet the needs of more people and have the ability to respond to market changes can they gain greater living space and development prospects in the competition." said yuan xiaolin, global senior vice president of volvo car group, president and ceo of volvo car asia pacific.

electrification transformation is one of mercedes-benz's core strategies. duan jianjun, president and ceo of beijing mercedes-benz sales and service co., ltd., once emphasized: "based on the actual needs of current customers, we are promoting a flexible 'oil-electric dual-line' product strategy, that is, we provide customers with what kind of models they need."

before the mercedes-benz glc 350e l 4matic was unveiled, mercedes-benz had already launched the e-class plug-in hybrid model.

in addition to luxury brands, ultra-luxury brands are also increasing their plug-in hybrid products. for example, bentley released the fourth-generation continental gt extreme edition, which is equipped with a new ultra-high-performance hybrid system.

"bentley motors is currently steadily advancing the electrification process and plans to launch the first pure electric bentley model in 2026. in this process, plug-in hybrid power options will continue to play an important transitional role." bentley motors executive general manager of mainland china, hong kong and macau andretti said in an interview with reporters that the transition period of the plug-in hybrid system may be longer than expected, and bentley motors will provide customers with more hybrid version models to choose from.

at the same time, hongqi hs7 phev and wuling xingguang s also launched plug-in models at the chengdu auto show. "hongqi hs7 phev is equipped with the latest hongqi hybrid technology, setting a new banner for china's luxury hybrid." liu changqing, assistant to the general manager of china first automobile group co., ltd. and vice president of the hongqi brand operation committee, introduced. as a plug-in hybrid suv new energy vehicle, hongqi hs7 phev is equipped with a 2.0l naturally aspirated engine and an electric motor with a maximum power of 120 kilowatts. at the same time, it is equipped with a catl ternary lithium battery and has a maximum speed of 180km/h. the launch of this new car not only enriches the product line of the hongqi brand, but also provides consumers with more green travel options.

shifting focus

in addition to volvo and bentley shifting their focus from pure electric to plug-in hybrid, many brands have also adjusted their electrification goals.

recently, toyota motor announced that it would lower its global electric vehicle production forecast for 2026 to 1 million units, from its previously announced target of 1.5 million units.

toyota explained in a statement that its intention to produce 1.5 million electric vehicles per year by 2026 and 3.5 million electric vehicles per year by 2030 has not changed, but these numbers are no longer targets but benchmarks.

ford, gm and other automakers have also delayed or canceled new electric models as consumers have slowed their adoption of electric vehicles and they want to avoid spending big bucks on their plans.

from the perspective of the chinese market, signs of a slowdown in the growth of pure electric vehicles are becoming increasingly obvious. the growth rate of plug-in hybrid models now far exceeds that of pure electric models, and their market share is also approaching.

according to the analysis of the china passenger car association, chinese automakers have innovatively developed plug-in hybrid technology, and the sales of plug-in hybrid models have increased to 78% of the global market. this is also the key reason why the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in domestic passenger cars has exceeded 50%.

the wall street journal recently published an observation and analysis article on the chinese plug-in hybrid vehicle market. the article suggested that plug-in hybrid vehicles that can run on both oil and electricity will erode the potential demand for pure electric vehicles. in just over three years, the market share of "plug-in hybrid + extended-range" in china's new energy vehicle market has doubled.

"while plug-in hybrids are often considered a transitional technology, they are likely to continue to exist." the wall street journal also cited an analysis by jpmorgan chase: by 2030, sales of plug-in hybrids and extended-range vehicles will account for 60% of china's new energy vehicle sales, double the previous forecast of 30%.

cui dongshu, secretary general of the china passenger car association, said in a statement that china's share of the global plug-in hybrid market continued to strengthen, ranging from 30% to 50% in 2017-2018, and dropped to 25% in 2020. in 2021, china's share of the global plug-in hybrid market was 32%, rising to 56% in 2022, and 69% in 2023. from january to july 2024, it reached an ultra-high level of 75%, of which 77% was achieved in the second quarter. china has shown an extremely strong performance in the global plug-in hybrid market.

author: zheng yu

source: china news weekly