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in the past week (september 2 to september 7), about 10 public offering bond funds, including icbc credit suisse fund, guotai fund, gf fund, and huashang fund, suspended large-amount purchase restrictions. some bond funds have purchase limits as low as 10,000 yuan, and some bond funds with a scale of over 12 billion yuan have fallen by 0.36% in the past month. against the backdrop of bond market fluctuations, bond funds have successively adopted purchase limits to cope with market uncertainties.

in fact, since mid-to-late august, the trading volume of major active bonds has begun to decline sharply, the main line has frequently switched, and varieties such as credit bonds have experienced volatile adjustments. in this context, bond returns are subject to three key constraints: the policy interest rate curve guidance tone, the current "asset shortage" of financial institutions, and the federal reserve's expectation of a rate cut in september, which puts higher demands on fund managers' decisions.

major bond funds have restricted purchases

according to the announcement of icbc credit suisse fund on september 7, starting from september 9, icbc 1-3 year agricultural development bank bond fund, icbc 3-5 year china development bank bond fund, icbc china bond 1-5 year export-import bank bond fund, and icbc 1-3 year china development bank bond fund will all be subject to purchase restrictions for institutional investors, with the upper limit of large-amount subscription, conversion and regular fixed-amount investment being rmb 10 million. in addition, starting from september 9, guotai xinyu pure bond fund and zheshang huijin short-term bond fund will both be subject to large-amount purchase restrictions, with the upper limit of purchases being rmb 1 million and rmb 10,000 respectively.

in fact, this is a microcosm of the intensive purchase restrictions on bond funds since september. on september 6, gf tianfu 30-day holding bond fund issued a purchase restriction announcement, and from september 9, it will suspend the single-day single fund account subscription (including regular fixed amount and variable amount investment) and conversion transfer of large-amount business totaling more than 100,000 yuan. on september 4, gf fund also restricted the purchase of gf shuangzhai tianli bond fund e shares. in addition, from september 4, huashang hongfeng pure bond fund and huashang hongyue pure bond fund will suspend institutional clients' single-day single fund account single or cumulative large-amount subscription, large-amount regular fixed amount investment and large-amount conversion transfer business of more than 100,000 yuan (excluding 100,000 yuan).

according to incomplete statistics from securities china reporters, bond funds that have been subject to large-scale purchase restrictions since last week include green hongyuan pure bond fund, bosera yurong pure bond fund, changan hongyuan pure bond fund, csop juxin bond fund, southern haoyuan short-term bond fund, southern shengyuan medium- and short-term interest rate bond fund, southern dingyuan medium- and short-term bond fund, and southern jiyuan short-term bond fund.

the purchase restrictions on the above bond funds since september are related to the time node, but more of a passive consideration for large-scale funds to deal with the market. for example, the purchase restrictions on the four bond funds of southern haoyuan, shengyuan, dingyuan and jiyuan under southern fund are for the purpose of protecting the interests of fund unit holders during the mid-autumn festival. the purchase restriction period is from september 12 to september 18. the e unit of gf double bond plus bond fund has a purchase limit of 20,000 yuan. as of the end of the second quarter of this year, the scale of the e unit of the fund exceeded 12 billion yuan. as of now, the e unit of the fund has fallen by 0.36% in the past month.

the main line switching has undergone phased adjustments

fund investment and research professionals believe that the current volatility in the bond market still exists, and the switching between different products has been more obvious in recent times. the phased fund purchase restrictions will help fund managers cope with market uncertainties.

huaxia fund said that the overall market risk appetite has shrunk since the beginning of this year, and "certainty" has become a new market consensus. funds have flocked to the "shock shelter", and the bond market has experienced a "fast bull" in the first half of the year. however, after the recent central bank's regulation of interest rates, the bond market has ushered in two pricing mechanisms: one is the guidance of the interest rate curve at the policy level, and the other is the bond market price driven by the "asset shortage" of financial institutions. since mid-to-late august, the transaction volume of major active bonds has begun to decline sharply, the main line has frequently switched, and there has been a phased adjustment.

"the central bank's attitude towards regulating long-term bonds has recently escalated, the funding side has converged, the bond market has adjusted, and the market has repeatedly tested." li yulu, fixed income fund manager of manulife fund, told china securities journal reporters that overall, the central bank's attitude towards regulating long-term bonds this time is firm. from the second quarter monetary policy report, the central bank reiterated the transformation of the monetary policy framework (using omo as the main policy interest rate, increasing temporary reverse repurchases, sorting out the transmission of interest rates from short to long, and optimizing lpr quotations and deposit and loan quotation mechanisms), and reiterated the central bank's determination to sell bonds and convey the optimization of the yield curve.

taking the representative 10-year treasury yield trend as an example, the indicator dropped to a low of 2.10 on august 5, and then continued to rise, breaking through 2.6 at one point. it has fluctuated at a high level since september and then declined. as of now, the lowest point has returned to around 2.11. from the perspective of specific products, credit bonds have entered a volatile adjustment mode since the end of august and the beginning of september.

an investment researcher at a medium-sized public fund in the north said that the recent adjustment of credit bonds is related to the increase in repurchase costs. some institutions have reduced their positions to cope with liquidity management in order to cope with redemption pressure or potential redemption. wang xianbiao, fund manager of nord fund, said that after regulators repeatedly cooled down market speculation, the recent trading volume in the bond market has shrunk significantly. after the rise of risk aversion, the friction cost of credit bond transactions has increased, resulting in a surge in short-term credit bond selling but a relatively scarce buying. the supply and demand relationship has reversed in the short term, which has increased market volatility to a certain extent.

long-term interest rate products still have the opportunity to outperform

looking ahead, china asset management believes that the federal reserve is about to cut interest rates in september. under the current background of increasing pressure on domestic growth and weakening overseas constraints, monetary policy still needs to maintain a "supportive stance" and there is still room for policy interest rates to be lowered. the possibility of another rate cut by the central bank cannot be ruled out. the disturbance caused by liquidity changes is also expected to be repaired by liquidity.

"judging from the current economic data, the momentum of the real economy is still showing a weakening trend, and it still provides support for the downward trend of long-term interest rates. especially as overseas fundamentals are gradually slowing down and monetary policy is beginning to shift, the constraints on my country's monetary policy easing are gradually being lifted. in this case, the downward trend in short-term interest rates will also open up more room for the downward trend in long-term interest rates, and we can still pay more attention to the allocation value of ultra-long bonds." said wan zhiwen, fund manager of the fixed income investment department ii of bosera funds.

li yulu believes that the current importance of real liquidity is higher than that of capital market liquidity. the overall balance of funds is expected to be tight, and the leverage strategy is generally difficult. in the context of debt reduction, high-interest assets have decreased, and the pressure on small and medium-sized banks to allocate bonds has further increased, which is still good for bonds overall. in terms of interest rate selection, the supply of government bonds may increase, but the allocation power of allocation institutions will make it difficult for the spread of treasury bonds to expand significantly. in addition, institutional allocation funds may have entered a state of asset shortage, and long-term interest rate products are expected to still have the possibility of overperformance in the future.

regarding credit bonds, liu taiyang, fund manager of penghua fund, said that due to the asset shortage, both the absolute yield and credit spread of credit bonds are currently at a historically low level. since the asset shortage pattern is difficult to change in the short term, it is difficult for credit bond yields to rise significantly. under the premise of controlling credit risks, entities with better qualifications are still expected to increase their relative investment returns.