china real estate news: supporting domestic demand in the property market, interest rate policy can also serve as
2024-09-07
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domestic demand has always been the driving force of economic development. the decision of the third plenary session of the 20th cpc central committee proposed to "accelerate the cultivation of a complete domestic demand system". the political bureau of the cpc central committee held a meeting not long ago to emphasize "deepening innovation-driven development and tapping the potential of domestic demand", and required "expanding domestic demand with a focus on boosting consumption, and the focus of economic policies should be shifted more to benefiting people's livelihood and promoting consumption".real estate consumption is a key part of managing aggregate demand. at present, the key to promoting housing consumption is to make good use of monetary policy tools. recently, the market has been discussing the reduction of existing mortgage interest rates. on the one hand, some home buyers feel that it is necessary to reduce the existing mortgage interest rates; on the other hand, many investors believe that the interest rate spread of the banking system is already very low, and further compressing the interest rate spread of banks is likely to cause systemic risks.both sides have their reasons. as for the reduction of the interest rate of existing mortgage loans, we have continued to call for adjustments starting from october 2022 based on the real estate situation and market research. to this day, we still believe that in extraordinary times, extraordinary measures should be used. by changing market expectations, we can use time to exchange space and get out of the situation of insufficient demand as soon as possible.there is some truth to this. the reform and reconstruction of restrictive policies, real estate credit and pre-sale system can promote real estate confidence and industry recovery, but the real healthy operation of the industry requires the market to become a lever for real estate resource allocation. among these levers, financial and monetary means such as mortgage interest rates are crucial.people have seen that in terms of real estate credibility, the ministry of housing and urban-rural development and other departments have been vigorously coordinating all parties to promote the guaranteed delivery of houses in the past three years. the guaranteed delivery of houses is not only related to the people-oriented development, but also to the credibility of the industry, market confidence, market expectations, and economic stability.we should see that one of the main tasks of real estate development at present is to stabilize real estate, promote market recovery and smooth operation, and prevent the market from overcooling. under the condition of continued loose real estate supply and demand policies, monetary policy relief and support for consumption are very important. because, in an environment of continued insufficient real estate demand, corporate profits will be weak, the willingness to continue to invest will be insufficient, and residents' willingness to consume housing will decrease, which will cause the confidence and expectations of companies and individuals in future housing consumption to continue to weaken, and the pressure to prevent financial risks will increase.back to the situation of the existing mortgage interest rates, although the existing mortgage interest rates have been adjusted down since last year, the interest rate difference between new mortgages and existing mortgages is still large. taking beijing as an example, most of the existing mortgage interest rates are 4.75%, and the lowest new mortgage interest rate can be as low as 3.4%, a difference of 135bp (basis points).another latest financial data is that according to the semi-annual reports of a-share listed banks in the first half of this year, among the 6 state-owned commercial banks and 9 joint-stock banks, only 5 banks' personal mortgage housing loan balances increased compared with the end of last year, but the personal housing mortgage loan balances of these 15 banks decreased by a total of 309.957 billion yuan in the first half of this year.the facts presented by these data are already very clear. recently, we have also noticed that bankers have opinions on the reduction of existing mortgage interest rates, believing that solving the problem of existing mortgages requires comprehensive consideration by various regulatory departments, in-depth research and consideration in terms of preventing financial risks and effectively solving problems, and not blindly making "one-size-fits-all" adjustments.this worry is not without reason. however, development is still the primary issue. from this point of view, the mortgage interest rate is actually an issue that requires a systematic thinking. on the one hand, the financial sector should further open up to seek advice and actively listen to the beneficial voices of the market. it can make appropriate scientific adjustments to the marginal stock loan interest rates; on the other hand, for the existing second sets of houses that meet the "first set standard", the mortgage interest rate can be allowed to be converted to the first set interest rate. reform requires courage and breakthroughs. in addition, the housing provident fund loan policy for the recognition of two children and the first set of houses for families can also be adjusted and relaxed from the age standard limit of minors in a timely manner.in general, a major feature of the real estate industry at present is its lack of self-repair capabilities. judging from the challenges it faces in its fundamentals, it contains the courage and urgent need for reform. in the process of facing the future and promoting the reform and development of real estate, it is necessary to ensure that the direction is correct, and it is also necessary to prioritize according to the economic environment and adjust and optimize the financial, monetary, fiscal and tax policies related to real estate consumption. we can ask ourselves, because the interest rate spread between deposits and loans has dropped, bank profits have dropped a little, but the balance sheet has improved, non-performing loans have decreased, and the valuation of assets held has increased, which is of great help to financial security and economic stability.
