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sun fengchun, academician of the chinese academy of engineering: china's new energy vehicle technology development and future technology breakthrough

2024-09-04

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the 20th china automotive industry development (teda) international forum was held in tianjin binhai new area from august 29 to september 1. at the opening ceremony on august 31, sun fengchun, an academician of the chinese academy of engineering and a professor at beijing institute of technology, delivered a speech entitled "thirty years of development of china's nev technology and future technology breakthrough", sharing some views on the future development of intelligent networked new energy vehicles.

sun fengchun first reviewed the development history of new energy vehicles (nev) in my country. he said that although the term new energy vehicles was proposed by my country, the history of electric vehicles can be traced back to 1881. today, china is in the fourth wave of electric vehicle development. after seven "five-year plans", the country has focused on supporting electric vehicles and new energy vehicles for 35 years. during this period, my country has defined three major technical systems for new energy vehicles, namely intelligent networked new energy vehicles, intelligent charging and swapping infrastructure, and nev safety supervision big data platform. four major national key demonstration projects have been deployed to demonstrate the operation of new energy vehicles, including the olympic center, shanghai world expo, guangzhou asian games and apec summit. through these demonstration projects, the country has strengthened its confidence in development, kicked off the demonstration application, and effectively promoted the rapid development of my country's new energy vehicle industry. at present, there are nearly 24 million vehicles running on the national new energy vehicle safety supervision big data platform, with a mileage of nearly 1 trillion kilometers and energy saving and emission reduction of 300 million tons. among the vehicles connected to the platform, new energy passenger vehicles account for 92.65%, and new energy commercial vehicles account for 7.35%. my country has achieved international first-mover and leading advantages in six aspects, and new energy vehicles have become the new business card of "made in china" in the transportation field. sun fengchun then raised several issues about the future development of new energy vehicles. the first issue is: the dream of a strong country and the energy + dual-carbon development strategy. in order to realize the chinese dream of the great rejuvenation of the chinese nation, my country must become a strong country in the manufacturing field, and also in the energy and transportation fields, and achieve carbon neutrality in energy and transportation. the third energy and industrial revolution has arrived. green and low-carbon energy, diversified intelligent power and electricity are excellent opportunities for china to realize the dream of a strong country. to realize the dream of a strong country, it is necessary to: reduce the import volume and external dependence of oil and natural gas, ensure national energy security and independence; achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality in transportation, and reduce automobile fuel consumption; promote the full electrification of motor vehicles, mainly electricity, supplemented by fuel or alternative fuels; promote the integrated development of transportation and energy, and realize the electric energy resourceization of road infrastructure; achieve self-consistency in transportation energy, drive the new three domestic large markets and large cycles, and achieve long-term sustainable development of incremental or stock. the second issue is: national energy security and green development. energy has a huge impact on national security. at the same time, transportation energy consumes about 60% of my country's oil, and there is still a long way to go to control carbon emissions in the transportation sector. in 2023, my country's transportation sector carbon emissions will exceed 1 billion tons, accounting for about 9% to 10% of the country's carbon emissions, and road transportation carbon emissions will account for 85% of carbon emissions in the transportation sector, which is much higher than the proportion of water, air and rail transportation. commercial vehicle carbon emissions account for more than 60% of road transportation. my country's commercial vehicle ownership is about 41.5 million, accounting for 12.5% ​​of the total; new energy commercial vehicles account for only 7.35% of commercial vehicle ownership, far behind passenger cars, and need to increase promotion efforts. sun fengchun also mentioned the issue of the integrated development of transportation and new energy. he said that assuming that the number of cars in the future will be 400 to 500 million, and full electrification and new energy will be achieved, the electricity consumption will be about 1.3 to 1.6 trillion kwh, which is equivalent to the current national electricity consumption and accounts for about 15% of the total electricity consumption in society. to achieve carbon neutrality and green energy in transportation, the problem of green energy supply must be solved. at present, the potential for developing photovoltaic energy from my country's highway transportation assets is about 720 billion kwh per year, and the self-consistency rate of new energy can reach 40% to 60% or more. with the help of other photovoltaic, wind power and hydropower resources, it is possible to achieve green and self-consistent transportation energy and reduce the external dependence on oil and natural gas. regarding long-range, ultra-fast charging and battery replacement. sun fengchun believes that the current pursuit of high mileage, low effective utilization of batteries, and waste of non-replaceable batteries, battery replacement still occupies an important position in the integration of energy and transportation. by 2028, the cumulative retirement of new energy vehicle power batteries will reach 1.82 million tons, and power batteries will usher in large-scale retirement. battery recycling is of great significance to protecting the environment and ecology, recycling resources, and reducing safety hazards. at present, it has not been popularized on a large scale, the recycling technology is mature, and the trend of clean application in the industry is advancing. sun fengchun emphasized that traditional tariff barriers and emerging technology barriers bring challenges, which is a problem that must be faced in the future. in 2024, western developed countries have set up many "checkpoints and walls", such as the united states setting high tariffs, chips and autonomous driving and other technical barriers. in 2025, the development of intelligent networked new energy vehicles needs to make breakthroughs in technology or trade, and tackle the self-consistent disruptive independent innovation projects of chips, high-end manufacturing, vehicle control operating systems, automotive basic software, and transportation energy integration, greatly reduce the external dependence on energy, realize the new three domestic circulations, and achieve long-term sustainable development and continuous leadership. finally, sun fengchun pointed out that the research and development of technologies in distributed drive chassis, e/e architecture, os system, big three electrics, small four electrics, carbon labels, carbon accounting, and carbon trading should be accelerated. the development of these key technologies is crucial to promoting the progress of the automotive industry. in the current era of rapid technological development, the automotive industry is facing major changes and challenges. only by continuously increasing investment in the research and development of these key technologies can we remain invincible in the fierce market competition and achieve sustainable development of the automotive industry.

(source: china media group international online)

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