news

한어Русский языкEnglishFrançaisIndonesianSanskrit日本語DeutschPortuguêsΕλληνικάespañolItalianoSuomalainenLatina

"we got it. 26.7 million yuan! two to three million yuan over budget."

on august 29, at the launch of phase ii of china overseas land & investment jiuxu in shanghai, several groups of families who were at the top of the lottery and successfully selected houses were sharing their experiences.

there are 120 units and 352 groups have signed up for the project. the house selection took about half an hour after the launch and all 141 units were sold out, with a total sales volume of 3.16 billion yuan - this is already the third luxury home in shanghai that was sold out in august.

"i still don't have a chance this time." zhou nan (pseudonym) told the reporter of daily economic news. this is his second time to subscribe to this project. the last time the lottery number was over 500, but he also experienced the thrill and excitement of "selling a luxury house in 24 seconds" up close.

just two weeks ago, the market had just "digested" a batch of purchasing power: on august 25, the jinyuan project near shanghai xintiandi was first opened, and 33 units were sold out with a transaction amount of 1.827 billion yuan; on august 18, 110 super-large apartments in the second batch of the second phase of sunac bund one courtyard were opened for sale and sold out within 1 hour, with sales of nearly 5.7 billion yuan, an average of "half a small target" per unit.

in just half a month, the total sales of the three projects reached 10.627 billion yuan.

since 2024, 12 luxury housing projects have been launched in shanghai, and almost all of them have been sold out. who are the buyers? what is the situation of developers? with such a huge supply, are there enough buyers?

an average of 12.5 luxury homes are sold every day

sold out, daylight, time, this year's shanghai luxury homes can no longer be viewed from an ordinary perspective.

as of august 18 this year, 2,641 luxury homes with a total price of more than 25 million yuan have been signed online in shanghai, and a considerable number of transactions are still being signed online. if the 263 units sold in august are added, the sales in the first eight months are close to 3,000 units. this is not only far more than the other three first-tier cities, but also unprecedented in shanghai in the past 10 years.

the first project to be launched in 2024 was zhonghai shunchang jiuli. the average price of each unit was about 40 million yuan, and all units were sold out at the first launch, with a total sales of 19.65 billion yuan, breaking the national record for the total sales amount of commercial housing in a single launch.

in the off-season of july and august, luxury homes in shanghai are in great demand:

the second phase of longsheng bay has 120 units with a subscription rate of 239%; the second batch of the second phase of sunac bund one has 110 units with a subscription rate of over 180%; the second phase of china overseas land & investment jiuxu has an effective subscription rate of 252%; jinyuan has 33 units, which were opened for subscription 4 days after the project was opened, with a subscription rate of 152%; the third phase of greentown qiantan lily garden has 10 villas with a total price of 53 million to 100 million yuan, with a subscription rate of 210%.

the ever-increasing supply can still be absorbed by the market, and home buyers are almost buying as much as they can.

according to statistics from china index academy, only 896 luxury homes priced at rmb 25 million or above were sold in shanghai in 2015. in the following eight years, the number of sales has mostly remained at 1,600 to 1,700 per year. however, this balance was broken by the blowout supply in 2024. including sunac bund one, jinyuan and zhonghai residence jiuxu, which were sold out within three weeks, shanghai sold an average of 12.5 luxury homes per day in the first half of the year.

in beijing during the same period, except for a few popular projects, it was rare to see high-end residential properties being sold out one after another. according to statistics from the china index academy, as of august 18 this year, 1,257 residential properties worth more than 16 million yuan were signed online in beijing, a significant decrease compared with 3,582 in 2023, 4,028 in 2022, and 3,616 in 2021.

who are they who are willing to spend lavishly to buy houses in full?

"most of the buyers are locals and customers from jiangsu and zhejiang, accounting for about 40% each." zhang chen (pseudonym), marketing manager of sunac bund one, said in an interview with a reporter from the "daily economic news".

moreover, these clients are generous.

"about half of the first batch of customers paid in full. many of them have multiple properties. some have already bought phase 1 of the bund one or some luxury homes along the huangpu river. some business owners from jiangsu and zhejiang have paid social security in shanghai for many years. they are also families with multiple children and have sufficient housing coupons. previously, there was no supply of luxury homes, so they could only buy second-hand homes. in the second opening, they finally won a new home."

the marketing manager of a luxury housing project in shanghai also revealed to the reporter of china business network: "it is obvious that some non-local customers have come to shanghai to allocate assets this year, especially for houses with core resources. in fact, some customers do not have the qualifications to buy a house, but their children are studying abroad, and they can buy a house by obtaining housing tickets through graduation settlement."

why is it so hard to find a luxury home in core cities?

zhang hongwei, founder of jingjian consulting, told the reporter of china business network: "projects in the core areas of the core cities of beijing, shanghai, guangzhou and shenzhen have price inversions, and they are core assets. there is a high probability that prices will rise in the next three to five years."

"on the other hand, the policy sensitivity and demand support of core cities are relatively sufficient. every 3 to 6 months, a round of policy stimulus will release a wave of trading volume accordingly. under this market situation, high-quality assets in core cities will have independent market trends."

"these people are very sensitive and they smelled the opportunity right away." the person in charge of the above-mentioned luxury housing project also revealed to the reporter from meike.com.

zhang hongwei pointed out that the next three to five years will be a period of interest rate cuts. the logic of asset allocation during the interest rate cut cycle is definitely the core assets of core cities.

luxury home buyers are not enough

most of these luxury homes, which are half the size of a small city, are located around shanghai's "one river and one lake", namely the huangpu river and suzhou river.

prospective owners of top luxury products rarely "buy the whole city", and the characteristics of the customer groups corresponding to luxury homes in different blocks are quite obvious. for example, jinyuan in the historical area of ​​huangpu district has the biggest attraction of the old town style and urban sentiment; pudong binjiang district wins with its scarce river view resources and area structure; further west, xuhui changning district is the traditional luxury home gathering area in shanghai.

"compared with the hot-selling zhonghai shunchang jiuli at the beginning of the year, the overall age of buyers at sunac bund no. 1 courtyard is about 10 years younger. zhonghai shunchang jiuli is located in the xintiandi area, and its advantages are self-evident, with high recognition from local customers. the area where bund no. 1 courtyard is located is relatively new, and among the customers in jiangsu and zhejiang, parents account for a large proportion of the purchases of properties for their children," zhang chen analyzed.

"customers who buy luxury homes have their own ideas about the area or location, and it is basically difficult to shake them."

based on this logic, competition between luxury homes often becomes competition at the marketing level within the sector.

among the luxury housing projects waiting to be launched in the second half of the year, low-density villas and style houses are quite large. take jinyuan in huangpu district as an example. the surrounding new houses and second-hand luxury houses are all strong competitors, not to mention the "cuihu phase vi", a top-end project that is enough to attract cross-regional buyers from all over shanghai.

in addition, high-end products are emerging in non-traditional luxury housing areas such as east bund, north bund, hongkou, and jing'an: hong'anli style project, the "poly bund preface" project in east bund, which has just been announced, cuihu riverside style villas, jing'an district poly yongxingli, vanke zhongxing aoshe...

zhang chen revealed that starting from this year, the annual supply of luxury homes may reach at least 3,000 units. when luxury homes are supplied in multiple locations in the city center, location is undoubtedly the core competitiveness, and for new projects and new sectors far away from the traditional luxury housing sector, they are desperately rolling out concepts, products, and real-life displays.

another question is, do the rich have enough? the answer is obviously: not enough.

at least in the short term, it is not enough to continue the grand scene of "multiple subscriptions" in the first half of the year.

"this year is definitely the year with the highest sales volume of luxury homes in shanghai in the past 10 years. the number of units sold around may has already reached the volume of the whole of last year. but from the perspective of the market and customer research, there are still some concerns about how big this customer pool is and how long it can last. core assets and high-quality products are also limited."

the person in charge of luxury home marketing said frankly: "there are still hidden worries in the second half of the year. salary limits in some high-income industries will also lead to a reduction in the purchasing power of a large number of customers. the original budget of 50 million yuan may now be reduced to 30 million yuan."

in fact, the customer base has quietly changed: first, purchasing power cannot explode as quickly as before, and buyers take longer to make decisions; second, customers will compare repeatedly. previously, as long as a project came out in the city center, it would be fought over, but now many customers will compare within the same sector, between brands, and between regions.