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in august, sales of the top 100 real estate developers were at a low level, and many developers' mid-year performance this year is still declining or even in the red. the current industry fundamentals and real estate developers' performance continue to be in the process of bottoming out.

according to statistics from the china index academy, from january to august 2024, the total sales of the top 100 real estate companies was 2683.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 38.5%, and the decline continued to narrow by 1.6 percentage points from the previous month. in august alone, the sales of the top 100 real estate companies decreased by 22.1% year-on-year and 2.43% month-on-month.

"affected by the weakening effect of real estate market support policies and the impact of high temperatures, the sales area of ​​new homes in key cities continued to decline in august, with a year-on-year decrease of about 20%. the decline has widened and the market is still facing great adjustment pressure," said an analyst from the china index academy.

predicting the future market, cric analysts believe that with the arrival of the traditional marketing peak season, real estate developers' launch intensity and marketing efforts will increase, and overall transactions in september may increase month-on-month. however, considering the current sluggish market conditions, the increase will be very limited without obvious policy stimulus.

specifically, from january to august, there were 6 real estate companies with total sales exceeding 100 billion yuan, 6 fewer than the same period last year; there were 61 real estate companies with total sales exceeding 10 billion yuan, 29 fewer than the same period last year.

among them, poly development ranked first in the industry with sales of 220.8 billion yuan in the first eight months of this year, followed by china overseas land & investment with 180 billion yuan, greenland ranked third with 165.6 billion yuan, vanke ranked fourth with sales of 163.7 billion yuan, and china resources land ranked fifth with 155.4 billion yuan.

the sixth to tenth places in the industry are china merchants shekou, c&d property, binjiang group, yuexiu property and longfor group, with sales of 130.9 billion yuan, 77.7 billion yuan, 72.3 billion yuan, 70.5 billion yuan and 65.1 billion yuan respectively.

it is worth noting that as more than 100 a+h-share real estate companies have successively released their 2024 interim performance reports, the profitability of many listed real estate companies has continued to weaken, and their net profits have declined significantly.

according to monitoring by china index academy, among the 105 a+h-share real estate companies in the first half of 2024, 72 companies saw a year-on-year decline in revenue, 87 companies saw a year-on-year decline in net profit, 50 companies suffered losses, of which 24 suffered their first loss since the epidemic.

in this regard, the above-mentioned china index academy analyst said that due to the impact of weak market demand, further decline in housing prices, and intensified market competition, real estate companies' sales have been hindered, and "trading price for volume" has become a common means of destocking, which has led to insufficient growth momentum in revenue scale and pressure on profit levels. at the same time, real estate companies continue to make provisions for impairment of investment properties and inventory, which has also eroded the industry's profit level to a certain extent.

many analysts believe that the real estate market has entered the traditional peak sales season of "golden september and silver october", and expectations for a new round of loose policies are growing.

"a new round of policy tightening may be imminent." analysts at guojin securities pointed out that high-energy cities have recently introduced policies intensively, and market expectations for policy tightening and credit easing have increased.

on the land side, shanghai officially withdrew from the "7090" policy in august, accelerating the construction of a new real estate development model with a dual-track system of affordable housing and commercial housing. on the financial side, the lpr for more than five years is expected to be lowered again this year, leading to a decline in the interest rate of new mortgage loans. on the demand side, chongqing adjusted the sales restrictions and identified the first home by district. guangzhou, kunming, tangshan and other places optimized the provident fund policy and introduced measures including supporting the use of provident funds to pay down payments, reducing the minimum down payment ratio of provident fund loans, and increasing the maximum amount of provident fund loans.

"the key node of golden september and silver october is approaching, and there is still room for policy relaxation in first-tier cities. policies may be introduced in a timely manner to boost market confidence." said an analyst at guojin securities.

analysts from the china index academy believe that with the arrival of the traditional peak season of "golden september and silver october", the activity of the new home market in core cities may pick up slightly in the short term, but the sharp reduction in land supply in the early stage may restrict the supply capacity of real estate companies, thereby dragging down the recovery of sales. at the same time, long-term factors such as residents' income expectations have not improved significantly, and the overall new home market is still under pressure. under the situation of "trading price for volume", it is expected that the second-hand housing market in core cities will maintain a certain level of activity.

"different cities still show significantly differentiated market conditions," said the above-mentioned cric analyst. short-term markets such as beijing, shanghai, chengdu, xi'an, and hangzhou are still operating smoothly. the sales rate will fluctuate due to supply structure reasons, but the market resilience is relatively strong and the heat is also at the top among first- and second-tier cities; secondly, in cities such as tianjin, wuhan, and nanjing, new home transactions may continue the weak recovery trend; and for most other weak third- and fourth-tier cities, transactions may remain the same as in august or increase slightly, and it is difficult to show a significant improvement.