news

한어Русский языкEnglishFrançaisIndonesianSanskrit日本語DeutschPortuguêsΕλληνικάespañolItalianoSuomalainenLatina

i fell and was stunned!

this morning, the main contract of the european futures of the cargo shipping index (hereinafter referred to as the european futures) plummeted 8.77% to 2140.9 points, and once fell below 10% in the morning. at the same time, the hong kong stock market fell across the board, and the a50 futures and the rmb also fell rapidly. the a-share market was still strong in the early trading, but the market structure also changed. so, what unfavorable factors suddenly attacked?

on the morning of september 2, the latest data showed that the caixin china manufacturing purchasing managers' index (pmi) rose to 50.4% in august, up from 49.8% in the previous month. detailed data showed that the manufacturing boom returned to expansion, but external demand contracted for the first time this year. in fact, economic data in europe and the united states in july weakened across the board beyond expectations, and the momentum of global inventory replenishment continued to weaken. the eurozone's composite pmi in july was 50.1%, lower than market expectations. in july, the us manufacturing pmi was 49.6%, down 3.9 percentage points from the previous period, below the 50% boom-bust line, and entered the contraction range. this may be the main reason for the sharp drop in the european shipping index.

the stock price once plummeted by more than 10%

in the morning, the market experienced another sudden change. the decline of the main line of european container shipping widened to 8.77%, and the decline once fell below 10%.

the product reached a peak of 4763.6 points on july 4. it then continued to decline. so far, the decline has exceeded 50% in less than two months. it is worth mentioning that the stock markets in europe, the united states and japan also peaked and fell at the same time, and the trend of european container shipping is consistent with this. this may be related to the external economic fundamentals.

today, the stock market fell along with the european container shipping. after experiencing a large-volume rebound in the last two trading days of last week, the stock market fell again today. the decline of a-shares in the early trading gradually increased, and the market structure once again favored large-cap blue chips. the rebound of agricultural bank of china, sinopec and other stocks was very large. this style change intensified the selling pressure of small and medium-cap stocks.

it is worth noting that although the external markets performed well overnight last friday, the performance of hong kong stocks in the morning trading today was not good. the hang seng index, the china enterprises index and the hang seng technology index all fell by more than 1.5% in the morning trading. the a50 index futures fell by more than 1%. the offshore rmb against the us dollar also fell by 100 points.

what is the reason?

so, what exactly is the reason for the market crash? judging from the recent data, overseas demand is indeed weakening. on the morning of september 2, according to the caixin china general manufacturing pmi report, in august 2024, driven by increased demand and a slight acceleration in production, china's manufacturing boom rose slightly and returned to the expansion range. the caixin china manufacturing purchasing managers' index (pmi) for august, released on september 2, recorded 50.4%, 0.6 percentage points higher than in july, but still the second lowest since november 2023. however, export orders were weak that month and showed a slight contraction for the first time this year, and companies reflected the deterioration of the external environment.

separately, the seasonally adjusted manufacturing purchasing managers' index (pmi) for south korea, asia's fourth-largest economy, compiled by s&p global, was 51.9% in august, up from 51.4% in july. the increase in new export orders was the narrowest in six months. official trade data released last sunday supported the survey's findings, pointing out that south korea's exports grew for the 11th consecutive month in august, but the pace of growth weakened due to slowing demand for computer chips. stock markets in export-oriented economies also failed to show strength in early trading today.

in fact, economic data in europe and the united states in july have weakened beyond expectations, and the momentum of global inventory replenishment continues to weaken. the eurozone's composite pmi in july was 50.1%, lower than the previous forecast and market expectations. the eurozone's manufacturing pmi recorded 45.8%, unchanged from the previous month, and has not broken the boom-bust line this year. the service industry pmi recorded 51.9%, which is higher than the 50% boom-bust line, but the index has fallen for three consecutive months.

in july, the us manufacturing pmi was 49.6%, down 3.9 percentage points from the previous period, below the 50% line of prosperity and decline, and entered the contraction range. from the perspective of sub-indices, the manufacturing import, employment, new orders, and new export order indices were all below 50%, among which the employment and new order indices showed a more obvious decline, and the import index rose from the previous month, but only increased by 0.1 percentage point.

jianxin futures believes that, based on the latest inventory data from the united states, total u.s. inventory in may increased by 1.76% year-on-year, compared with 1.16% in the previous month. u.s. manufacturing inventory, commercial inventory, wholesaler inventory, and retailer inventory in may increased by 0.87%, 1.61%, -0.51%, and 4.97% year-on-year, respectively. they believe that the momentum of replenishment in europe and the united states is weakening, and demand is relatively weak.

in june this year, the european central bank lowered the three key interest rates in the euro area by 25 basis points, but the european economy has not completely alleviated the pressure on production and consumption caused by the previous high interest rates, and the momentum of economic recovery continues to weaken. this data shows that the european economy continues to be sluggish, and the manufacturing industry is under considerable pressure in the face of supply chain problems, energy price fluctuations and economic uncertainty. in the second half of the year, affected by the trade protection policies of european countries, china-eu trade will face challenges, so the impact on the export container transportation market needs to be closely watched.