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second-hand housing prices in 100 cities fell in august, and the market activity in core cities in the "golden september and silver october" is expected to pick up

2024-09-01

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on september 1, third-party research institution china index academy released the "100 cities price index report". the report showed that the current owners' "price-for-volume" strategy has driven the prices of second-hand homes in 100 cities to continue to decline; the new housing market was driven by the entry of high-quality improvement projects in some cities, and the prices of newly built homes in 100 cities saw a structural increase on a month-on-month basis.

according to monitoring data from the china index academy, in august, the average price of second-hand housing in 100 cities was 14,549 yuan/square meter, down 0.71% month-on-month, 0.03 percentage points narrower than in july, and has been falling month-on-month for 28 consecutive months; the year-on-year decline was 6.89%; the average price of newly built housing in 100 cities was 16,461 yuan/square meter, up 0.11% month-on-month and up 1.76% year-on-year.

from the perspective of the number of cities with rising and falling housing prices, according to the china real estate index system 100 cities price index, in august, the number of cities with a month-on-month decline in second-hand housing prices in the 100 cities was 100, which has been a collective decline in second-hand housing prices in the 100 cities for five consecutive months. among them, the month-on-month decline in second-hand housing prices in 56 cities narrowed, an increase of 8 from july. the number of cities with a month-on-month decline in new housing prices in the 100 cities was 46, an increase of 7 from july.

specifically, second-hand housing prices in cities of all tiers continued to fall month-on-month in august, with the decline narrowing slightly.

according to the china real estate index system 100-city price index, second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.72% month-on-month, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points from july. among them, the month-on-month decrease in shanghai housing prices narrowed significantly by 0.13 percentage points. after the implementation of the "527" new policy, shanghai's high-cost-effective housing sources accelerated transactions, and the bargaining space for the remaining housing sources in the market narrowed, but the overall "price for volume" trend remained unchanged. second-hand housing prices in second-tier and third- and fourth-tier representative cities fell by 0.76% and 0.66% month-on-month, respectively, a decrease of 0.02 percentage points and 0.01 percentage points from july, respectively.

data shows that in august, the prices of second-hand houses in 17 cities including ma'anshan and huai'an fell by more than 1% month-on-month, among which ma'anshan had the largest drop of 1.36%; 53 cities including nanjing and xuzhou fell between 0.5% (inclusive) and 1.0%; 18 cities including zhanjiang and suqian fell between 0.3% (inclusive) and 0.5%; 12 cities including sanya and fuyang fell within 0.3%.

in terms of newly built residential houses, the prices of new houses in first-tier and second-tier cities rose by 0.27% and 0.09% month-on-month in august, respectively. among them, the month-on-month growth rates of new house prices in shanghai, hefei and xi'an ranked among the top 100 cities.

in addition, the prices of newly built residential houses in dongguan, yangzhou and ningbo fell by 0.71%, 0.61% and 0.52% month-on-month respectively; the prices of newly built residential houses in five cities including haikou and foshan fell by 0.3% (inclusive)-0.5% month-on-month; the prices of newly built residential houses in 18 cities including wuhan and zhanjiang fell by 0.1% (inclusive)-0.3% month-on-month; the prices of 20 cities including taizhou and xiangtan fell by less than 0.1%.

china index academy believes that considering that my country's real estate market is still in a deep adjustment stage, the government is expected to continue to adhere to the strategy of combining digestion of existing stocks with optimization of incremental stocks to promote the market to stabilize faster. on the demand side, there is a large room for optimization of purchase restrictions in first-tier cities. at the same time, continuing to lower mortgage interest rates and increasing the deduction of personal income tax for mortgage interest may be the direction of demand-side policy optimization to further reduce residents' housing purchase costs. on the supply side, the policy focus may focus on accelerating the pace of state-owned enterprises' acquisition and storage of existing commodity housing, promoting the continuous optimization and implementation of the "white list" of projects, and increasing the efforts to revitalize idle land. overall, with the arrival of the traditional peak season of "golden september and silver october", real estate companies may increase their efforts to promote sales, coupled with the further implementation of policy support, and the market activity in core cities is expected to pick up slightly in the short term.