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the 2024 china automotive industry development (teda) international forum (hereinafter referred to as the "teda automotive forum") was held in tianjin from august 29 to september 1. at the opening ceremony on august 31, sun fengchun, an academician of the chinese academy of engineering and a professor at beijing institute of technology, delivered a speech entitled "thirty years of development of china's nev technology and future technology breakthrough".

although the term "new energy vehicle" was first proposed by my country, the history of electric vehicles can be traced back to 1881. new energy electric vehicles appeared in the late 19th century and then experienced three ups and downs in the last century. today, china is in the fourth wave of electric vehicle development.

after seven "five-year plans", the country has focused on supporting electric vehicles and new energy vehicles for 35 years. at present, there are nearly 24 million vehicles running on the national new energy vehicle safety supervision big data platform, with a mileage of nearly 1 trillion kilometers and energy saving and emission reduction of 300 million tons. among the vehicles connected to the platform, new energy passenger vehicles account for 92.65%, and new energy commercial vehicles account for 7.35%, achieving international first-mover and leading advantages.

at present, green and low-carbon energy, diversified intelligent power and electricity have become excellent opportunities for china to realize its dream of becoming a strong country. at the same time, there are also many problems that need to be faced by the entire industry together.

"to realize the dream of a strong country, we must do the following: reduce the import volume and external dependence of oil and natural gas to ensure national energy security and independence; achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality in transportation and reduce automobile fuel consumption; promote the full electrification of motor vehicles, with electricity as the main source and oil or alternative fuels as the supplement; promote the integrated development of transportation and energy and realize the resource utilization of electric energy for road infrastructure; achieve self-consistency in transportation energy use, drive the large domestic market and large circulation of the new three things, and achieve long-term sustainable development of incremental or existing stocks."

sun fengchun gave a set of data. in 2023, my country's transportation sector carbon emissions will exceed 1 billion tons, accounting for about 9% to 10% of the country's carbon emissions. road transportation carbon emissions account for 85% of transportation carbon emissions, which is much higher than the proportion of water, air and rail transportation. commercial vehicle carbon emissions account for more than 60% of road transportation. my country's commercial vehicle ownership is about 41.5 million, accounting for 12.5% ​​of the total; new energy commercial vehicles account for only 7.35% of commercial vehicle ownership, far behind passenger cars. there is still a long way to go to control carbon emissions in the transportation sector.

at the same time, a very important issue is how to solve the problem of green energy supply. "assuming that the number of cars in the future will be 400 to 500 million, and all of them will be electrified and powered by new energy, the electricity consumption will be about 1.3 to 1.6 trillion kwh, which is equivalent to the current national electricity consumption and accounts for about 15% of the total electricity consumption in society. to achieve carbon neutrality and green energy in transportation, the problem of green energy supply must be solved."

back to the car itself, by 2028, the cumulative retirement volume of new energy vehicle power batteries will reach 1.82 million tons. regarding the practice of many car companies constantly pursuing high mileage, sun fengchun said that this will result in low effective battery utilization and waste of non-replaceable batteries. therefore, he believes that battery swapping will still occupy an important position in the integration of energy and transportation in the future.

"in the current era of rapid technological development, the automotive industry is facing major changes and challenges. only by continuously increasing investment in the research and development of key technologies can we remain invincible in the fierce market competition and achieve sustainable development of the automotive industry."