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That's how the market works

Some news is known to the whole city, and some news is kept very low-key.

But it does not hinder its importance

For example, today's policy on adjusting the overall land supply structure in Shanghai

I will share my views and judgments with you in a quick way.

01

Let me start with the background

In fact, when developing land, there have always been regulations on the area ratio of small and medium-sized units.

This is indeed verySpecial PeriodPolicies formulated

When the entire Shanghai real estate market was particularly crazy, almost every project was in short supply as soon as it was built, and it was hotly sought after.

But in another dimension, the supply of land is limited, and development cannot keep up quickly.

Therefore, based on this tone, the definition of small and medium-sized housing types and the requirements for the proportion of small and medium-sized housing units began to emerge.

People in the industry know it as:7090

This means that 70% of each plot of land needs to be used for small and medium-sized apartments below 90 square meters.

It's almost a one-size-fits-all policy.

By reducing the unit area of ​​the apartment, the supply of housing units in the market can be increased.

Essentially, it is also a measure to ease the shortage of housing in the market.

I remember that when I first entered the industry, Mancheng began to focus on the concept of small three-bedroom apartments of 90 square meters, and this concept has continued to this day

It's been almost eighteen years.

02

Policy adjustments are divided into three directions

One calledRedefineSmall and medium-sized units

The one-size-fits-all 90-square-meter small apartment was adjusted to 100 square meters for multi-storey, 110 square meters for low-rise and 120 square meters for high-rise.

Is this adjustment important?

This adjustment is very critical

Because nowadays, with the increasing number of projects in the city center, many plots of land are tied to cultural relics, so the residential part must be built in high-rise

But if the top management insists on continuing to make 90 square meters of products, there will definitely be huge problems.

The mainstream market demand is for three-bedroom units. If we force the introduction of 90-square-meter three-bedroom units in products with low floor space ratios, we will encounter huge sales problems in the future.

Nowadays, even for small high-rise buildings, about 75% of the floor space is 90 square meters, which has dominated the Shanghai real estate market for a long time.

At present, there is a certain degree of homogeneous competition in the second-hand housing market

This adjustment will largely change this situation.

03

The third is the area ratio requirement

This is also very good. The ratios in different regions are no longer different.

No longer a one-size-fits-all 70%

Instead, the area between the inner and outer ring roads should be no less than 70%, the area within the middle ring road should be no less than 60%, the new town and the key areas of north-south transformation should be no less than 60%, and other areas outside the outer ring road should be no less than 50%.

This can explain why this adjustment is made

There are several areas for relaxation.

First, the space within the Central Ring Road has increased by 10%, providing opportunities for luxury housing in the city center

The second suburbs were relaxed by 20%, essentially to ease the homogeneity of suburbs and allow villas to be built in the suburbs.

The ability to build large apartments should be in the absolute center and absolute suburbs.conform toThe development law of a city

Currently, the area between the inner and outer ring roads is strictly controlled at 70%, but I personally think it is unnecessary.

We hope that the proportion of small and medium-sized apartments in the market can be reduced comprehensively in the future, so that the right to product positioning can be given to developers.

But no matter what, it is now a good trend and the right trend

The details also state

Each district also has the ability to coordinate and balance in a targeted manner. This is also a policy-making model based on the district. Each district can provide some specific land optimization space based on its own real estate situation and competition pattern.

The policy has given rise to many possibilities and opportunities.

04

Combined with the previous cancellation of the double limit policy

In the future, there will be no restrictions on land prices, and there will be no restrictions on the pricing of first-hand houses.Pricing powerCompletely givenDeveloper

From the optimization of these three policies, it can be clearly seen that the Shanghai property market is revitalizing and activating the land market.

05

So what is the significance of this and what kind of changes will it bring?

In terms of large areas, the overall land area for sale in Shanghai will no longer increase significantly in the future, and the proportion of small and medium-sized units has been adjusted.Essentially, it will reduce the overall supply of first-hand housing in the future

This is important

The reason why this is so important is that

First, first-hand housing needs to create space for second-hand housing

The expectation that people buy first-hand rather than second-hand has been firmly established in the past two years. Reducing the supply of sets will help some of the demand flow back to the second-hand market, which will provide some support for the second-hand market.

Second, we can focus more on improving, creating high-quality and luxurious houses.

The cancellation of price limits and the continued loosening of the policy for larger apartments have created possibilities in terms of planning.

Third, it is also foractivationDeveloper

When a large number of homogeneous products appear in the market, the biggest benefit is actually the channel. The profits of real estate are finally earned by the channel.

Adjusting the strategy will allow more products to appear on the market

Fourth, all changes are of course the best for the land market

The land area for sale has not changed, which helps to increase the expected unit price of land for developers and also ensures that the activity of land sale is well supported.

06

Of course you asked me for advice

In fact, my suggestions for the land market are more radical. I have always been inclined to completely cancel the ratio and requirements for small and medium-sized units.

Because you will see from the above analysis that the reduction of those restrictive policies will definitely have more benefits than disadvantages for the revitalization of the market.

As for the customers with urgent needs, they can be guided to the second-hand housing market, and the first-hand housing can focus on improving the quality to complete the supply-side reform.

While returning pricing power to developers, we should also return product positioning power to developers

But now I feel that it is a great progress

If the operation is good in the future, you can try to consider my suggestions.

besides,Shanghai can also introduce the fourth generation of home technology

This technology has now been tried in many cities. It doesn’t matter what the technology itself is called, but it allows for bigger and better balconies, which is also extremely necessary for the Shanghai property market.

In other words, ShanghaiToo much needThere is a great need for quality improvement, no matter which dimension

07

What advice do you have for ordinary customers?

I would like to say that we need to reconsider the small three-bedroom products of 90 square meters currently on the market.

First, there is a lot of homogeneity in the existing market. Second, there won’t be too many produced in the future. Third… I won’t say more.

08

The recent trajectory of Shanghai's property market is actually quite good

In the past two years, developers have reached a consensus on quality upgrades, and will make more efforts to upgrade the area in the next two years.

If you take a little God's perspective, you can find thatThe whole of Shanghai has quietly completed itsSupply-side changes

And maintain the demand for second-hand goods through changes in the first-hand supply side

Therefore, the land market must be the top priority. A series of chain reactions can be found in the initial land

I expect more changes in the land sector

We also hope that the land functional departments can see more dynamics and changes in primary and secondary properties, so that the development of the real estate market driven by land will be more solid and complete.

I'll stop here today. I'm busy with other things.