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In the past trading week (August 19 to August 23), A-shares continued to adjust with reduced volume, with the total turnover for the whole week being 2.71 trillion yuan, an increase of only 60 billion yuan compared with the previous week, which was an absolutely low volume.

The Wind All A Index fell 2.05% this week, but there was structural differentiation in the performance of individual stocks.That is, core assets as a whole are resistant to declines and may even rise slightly, while small and micro-cap stocks are facing a general decline.The weekly ratio of rising and falling stocks was 642:4680.

So-calledWhat are the core assets and how strong are they?

If you often watch the market, you may have noticed that the six major banksLarge state-owned banksIt has set new highs recently. After rising 4.35% last week, the increase this week is still as high as 4.24%.

Among them, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has maintained its position as the number one in A-share market value this week.

In contrast, the ChiNext, which is more growth-oriented, has recorded five consecutive declines on a weekly basis, approaching the low point in February this year.

As one thing grows, the other shrinks, and the rumor that "the Big Six Banks surpass the ChiNext" began to circulate on some investment platforms this week.

After verification, the author found that the real situation is -Although it has not yet surpassed, the gap is already very small.

Wind data shows that as of the close of Friday, the combined market value of the six major banks was approximately 868.11 billion yuan.

By the end of 2022, the figure was 5.68 trillion yuan.

(Note: Total market value 2 = stock price on that day × total share capital on that day. For the convenience of comparison, this article uses this indicator)

The ChiNext currently has 1,349 constituent stocks, with a total market value of 876.82 billion yuan as of Friday.It is only 87.1 billion yuan more than the Big Six banks, or about 1%.

Back to the end of 2022, there were only more than 1,200 ChiNext stocks, but the total market value was as high as 11.2 trillion yuan.

in other words,If the six major banks rise a little more and the ChiNext falls a little more next week, we might really be witnessing history.

Some people think that this is the return of value investing, and the growth style has been cold. As ordinary stockholders, we don’t actually need to be too “value-oriented”, we just need to know that there is indeed a lot of capital favoring bank stocks at the moment.

The capital market’s favor is not just an emotional “like”, but more aboutAt the trading level, funds buy more and sell less.

In addition to the series of logic that supports the market's optimism about high-dividend and other dividend sectors, incremental funds from the insurance industry and broad-based ETFs have also contributed to the continued rise of the banking sector.

We have previously shared that SDIC Securities mentioned in its research report “What is the essence of the big four banks’ rise?” that the essence of the big four banks’ rise is this round ofThe development trend of passive equity ETF represented by CSI 300 ETF:

As the CSI 300 ETF expands on a large scale, it can be found that active funds have been seriously underweight for a long time in some industries of the CSI 300. A typical example is banks. The weight of banks in the CSI 300 is as high as 13.2%, but in the second quarter, banks only accounted for 2.7% of the actively held stocks, an underweight of 10.5 percentage points.

It believes that in this case, active public funds do not actually have the pricing power of banks, because with the inflow of passive equity funds represented by the CSI 300 ETF as incremental funds, banks have formed a special chip structure with buying orders but lack of selling orders.

A previous research report by Industrial Securities also mentioned thatThis year, ETF funds have flowed in significantly and mainly increased their holdings in the CSI 300 Index. As the largest weighted industry in the CSI 300 Index, banks have benefited significantly.

According to its estimates as of August 16, the net inflow of stock ETFs this year was about 629.3 billion yuan, of which the net inflow of broad-based ETFs was 635.9 billion yuan.Other categories saw a small net outflow.

Broad-based ETFs are the core source of incremental inflows, and the ETF products tracking the CSI 300 Index have received the largest inflows, with net inflows of approximately 447.7 billion yuan during the year, accounting for more than 70% of the total broad-based net inflows.

As of this Friday, the market's largest broad-based ETF, the CSI 300 ETF (510300), has a scale of 276 billion yuan, more than double the beginning of the year (129.4 billion yuan).

The ChiNext continued to weaken, and some analysts believed that it was due to "fundamentals". According to statistics from the Financial Investment News:

As of this Friday, 342 companies on the ChiNext have disclosed their interim and performance reports. On average, revenue increased by 2.3% and net profit increased by 4.3%.

If CATL is excluded, although revenue increased by 8.2%, net profit decreased by 1.2%.

Excluding CATL, the average earnings per share and return on equity of 341 companies were 0.263 yuan and 4.23% respectively. Among them, 42 companies suffered losses and 139 companies saw a decline in profits, accounting for 53% of the disclosed companies.

Next week will be the intensive disclosure period for financial reports. According to Wind data, 3,528 A-share companies will release their 2024 interim reports next week (August 26-September 1), including 943 GEM companies. If the subsequent data released is not satisfactory overall, the sentiment may still be under pressure.

On the other hand, from the perspective of funds, the recent A-share trading volume has continued to shrink, and northbound funds have begun to "hide" this week. The power that has a greater chance of becoming the "weather vane" in the market is basically left at two ends:

First,Mysterious funds using broad-based ETFs to protect the market.

This wave of market-supporting funds is usually regarded as the embodiment of the "national team". Whenever products such as the CSI 300 ETF and the SSE 50 ETF increase in volume and rise during trading, the major stock indexes will also strengthen.

However, its style is more inclined to "support but not pull", so as we mentioned in our Friday push, when market sentiment is poor, the market may not necessarily form an upward force. (For details, see: "This week, A-shares repeatedly rose and fell, and the reason has been found")

Second, through the "Short-term Elf" and "Rise and Fall Speed ​​Ranking" ports, the abnormal movement of individual stocks and sectors attracts group game players.Short-term funds,Usually, it is mainly composed of retail investors with hot money.

However, from the trends of the CSI 2000 and other indexes, it can be roughly seen that the short-term market, which was once lively since late July, has recently fallen to a low point.

In the five trading days this week, individual stocks fell more than they rose. There seemed to be dozens of stocks that hit the daily limit, but they often performed poorly the next day; especially on Thursday and Friday this week, the "stocks that hit the daily limit on the previous day" all closed down overall.

Therefore, the market in the near future "can only" focus on the direction of incremental funds. There are few concept themes that can continue to strengthen. The Huawei HiSilicon concept, which surged 6.67% this week, is already rare.

From an investment logic perspective, the HiSilicon All-Connect Conference, scheduled to be held in September, has attracted market attention. This is also the first time in recent years that HiSilicon has held a large-scale "All-Connect Conference", which is seen by the industry as a signal for new product launches and acceleration.

Among the hot stocks, Shenzhen Huaqiang, which has been on the board for seven consecutive days, and Liyuan Information, which continues to rank at the top of the trading volume list, will inevitably influence the sector's sentiment next week.

Daily Economic News