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Have you ever thought that new energy vehicles will one day replace fuel vehicles?

According to data released by the China Passenger Car Association, 1.72 million passenger cars were sold in the national passenger car market in July, of which 878,000 were new energy vehicles. The retail penetration rate was as high as 51.1%, breaking the 50% mark for the first time in a monthly period. This figure was only 32.8% in January.

Although new energy vehicles are becoming more and more popular, this is definitely not a reason to ban the sale of fuel vehicles. The fact that new energy vehicles are not charged fast enough and the charging facilities are not perfect is already a "get out of jail free card" for traditional fuel vehicles. What's more, the EU, which announced last year that it would ban the sale of new internal combustion engine vehicles in 2035, changed its tone this year. The latest draft shows that it will allow the use of zero-emission alternative fuels after 2025.

my country does not have a clear "timetable" for banning the sale of fuel vehicles, but recently, the Hainan Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology issued an "Inquiry Letter on the Legislative Consulting Service Project for the Provisions on Promoting the Development of New Energy Vehicles in the Hainan Free Trade Port", which clearly stated "orderly promotion of the suspension of sales of fuel vehicles in 2030" and "planning to carry out legislative research on the Provisions on Promoting the Development of New Energy Vehicles in the Hainan Free Trade Port".

In fact, "Hainan will ban the sale of fuel vehicles in 2030" is nothing new. In the "Hainan Province Clean Energy Vehicle Development Plan" in March 2019, the official has already proposed that "Hainan Province will ban the sale of fuel vehicles in 2030, and strive to achieve international benchmark levels in the province's clean energy vehicles."

It can be seen that the main driving force for promoting Hainan’s “ban on burning” is environmental protection.As a major tourist province, Hainan receives a growing number of domestic and foreign tourists each year, and received more than 90 million tourists in 2023. The growing tourist population must be matched with sufficient transportation needs. Only by giving more resources to new energy vehicles can environmental protection-related issues be properly handled.

Therefore, when other car companies or relevant departments that have proposed relevant plans gradually postponed the timeline for banning the sale of fuel vehicles in order to take care of the fuel vehicle market, Hainan's attitude is extremely firm. Banning the sale of fuel vehicles is never an easy task, and this is also true for Hainan, which has been vigorously developing new energy for five years.

The main obstacle to "banning burning" is the energy replenishment system

Judging from the attitudes of netizens, their main concerns after the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles are insufficient charging facilities, as well as hardware issues in terms of battery safety and new energy endurance.

Today's ultra-fast charging technology has the ability to fully charge a pure electric vehicle within 20 minutes, and the traditional fuel filling method allows Xiaotong to complete the entire process of filling up the gas, checking out, and issuing an invoice in about three minutes, and there is even time to buy some snacks and a few bottles of drinks.

Although the super-fast charging speed is much faster than the half-hour charging from 30% to 80% in the past, it can indeed achieve the state of "full charge after a short rest". In theory, it is entirely possible to ban the sale of fuel vehicles by vigorously building super-charging piles, increasing the coverage of charging facilities, and reducing the waiting time for drivers to charge as much as possible through technical means.

However, for new energy vehicle owners in Hainan Province, they may need the breadth and density of the charging system more than the charging speed.Data shows that the sales volume of passenger cars in Hainan Province in 2023 was 167,504 units. The best-selling brands were BYD and Aion, followed by joint venture brands such as Toyota, Honda, and Nissan, and finally new energy brands with relatively high prices such as Tesla and Ideal.

Looking at the sales data of specific models in major cities in Hainan Province, it is found that Haikou City is the city with the best automobile sales performance in Hainan Province. The data shows that there are ten models in Haikou City with cumulative sales of more than 1,000 units in the past six months, mainly BYD Song PLUS New Energy, Yuan PLUS, Qin PLUS, Nissan Sylphy and other vehicles with obvious home attributes, as well as Toyota RAV4 Rongfang, Model Y, Toyota Asia Dragon and other models positioned in the middle and high-end. No models in other cities have sold more than 1,000 units in the past six months.

From a technical point of view, the fast charging power of the above-mentioned popular new energy vehicles is not high. The highest is the Model Y, with a fast charging power of up to 250kW. The charging power of the pure electric vehicle Yuan PLUS can reach up to 140-150kW. However, the fast charging power of mass-produced models like Song PLUS EV and Qin PLUS EV does not exceed 100kW, and the fast charging speed is basically "from 30% to 80% in half an hour". It will take consumers at least 1 hour to fully charge the car.

Due to cost constraints, automakers will not transfer supercharging technology to new energy vehicles priced below 200,000 yuan, which also means that improving the charging experience by simply increasing the charging speed has technical limitations. Official data shows that by the end of November 2023, the overall vehicle-to-pile ratio of new energy vehicles in Hainan is about 2.5:1, and a total of 116,800 charging piles have been built, indicating that the conditions for "electric vehicles to travel throughout the island" have been met, and the vehicle-to-pile ratio has always been kept below 2.5:1, thus solving the travel problem of "not being able to find charging piles".

Xiaotong has been to Hainan Province and found that in areas with high traffic such as Sanya City and Haikou City,The operating vehicles are basically new energy vehicles. Keeping the car-to-charging pile ratio below 2.5:1 may meet the demand of "electric vehicle travel across the island", but operating vehicles are time-limited and drivers generally focus on recharging the vehicle at a certain time.

Xiaotong is concerned about whether charging piles can meet the charging needs of most drivers at a certain time in these areas with greater operating pressure. Therefore, in addition to ensuring a sufficiently low car-to-pile ratio, the density of charging piles in some areas also needs to keep up.

As for the hardware issues of battery safety and new energy endurance, car companies need to continue their efforts to reduce the probability of accidents involving new energy vehicles in order to gradually change consumers' stereotypes.

A comprehensive “ban on burning” is difficult, but it is not a fantasy.

A firm attitude towards "banning fuel" and a strong energy replenishment plan have made it possible for Hainan Province to ban the sale of fuel vehicles. Some netizens believe that since Hainan Province already has a similar plan, will other parts of the country follow suit and implement similar "banning fuel" or "limiting fuel" policies?

Xiaotong learned that the "Research on the Timetable for the Exit of Traditional Fuel Vehicles in China" (hereinafter referred to as the "Research") released in 2019 analyzed the exit time of fuel vehicles and proposed that traditional fuel vehicles are expected to be fully withdrawn before 2050, and private cars in some first-tier cities will be fully converted to new energy by 2030.

The time point of 2050 is 15 years later than the "ban on burning" timetable set by the European Union. It can be seen that there are too many difficulties to overcome in the "ban on burning", and they are all "hard nuts to crack".

Xiaotong will not elaborate on the problems such as insufficient charging infrastructure/uneven distribution/inconsistent technical standards, the technology and safety of new energy products, etc. These problems will all take a lot of time to solve.In addition, a more important point is that each province and administrative region in the country has great differences in infrastructure, market demand, etc. For example, in Sichuan and Tibet, which are located in the plateau areas, or the vast Xinjiang region, durable and worry-free fuel vehicles are always more popular.

Taking into account economic benefits and sustainable development, new energy must be the development trend of the automobile market.Therefore, the "Study" does not have mandatory significance, but it provides a reference for relevant departments and car companies, and corresponding policies have been implemented.

The "Research" gives suggestions on "dividing by region, vehicle type and stage", first allowing the first-tier cities to take the lead in achieving the "ban on fuel", followed by the withdrawal of fuel vehicles in the fields of buses, taxis, online car-hailing vehicles, sanitation vehicles, etc., and finally private cars.

Therefore, many cities have begun the "full electrification" of buses and taxis. In 2016, Taiyuan City achieved full electrification of taxis; in 2019, Shenzhen completed the electrification of taxis and buses; Guangzhou and Beijing also have corresponding plans. Fuel vehicles in the public transportation field are gradually withdrawing from the stage of history.

At the same time, new energy has become the strategic focus of almost all car companies. Groups with strong capital accumulation will launch new energy brands that focus on cost-effectiveness and high-end. BYD is relatively radical and has become the world's first manufacturer to officially stop producing fuel vehicles. Domestic brands that have announced a "ban on fuel" timetable include BAIC Group, Changan Automobile, Great Wall Haval, etc.

Whether it is policies, car companies or relevant departments, they are all transforming towards electrification, and it is only a matter of time before fuel vehicles are delisted.Of course, a comprehensive "ban on fuel combustion" is still a pipe dream, and problems such as charging facilities and the safety of new energy products still exist.We are right to be concerned, and the louder the voices of doubt, the more they will force car companies to produce better quality products, and the current situation of insufficient charging facilities can be improved.

Only in this way will the issue of "new energy vehicles replacing fuel vehicles" be meaningful to discuss.