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Will Black Myth: Wukong’s revenue exceed 5 billion? The past and present of the hit “Monkey”

2024-08-22

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Produced by Radar Finance | Edited by Meng Shuai | Deep Sea

On August 20, the C position on the Chinese Internet undoubtedly belongs to the domestic 3A game masterpiece "Black Myth: Wukong".

On the first day of its launch, Black Myth: Wukong broke the record for the highest number of concurrent online players in the history of stand-alone games on the Steam platform, which was held by Cyberpunk 2077, and became a bright new star in the field of stand-alone games. Even among all Steam games, the number of concurrent online players of Black Myth: Wukong is second only to PlayerUnknown's Battlegrounds.

According to Feng Ji, the producer of the game, the development cost of Black Myth: Wukong is very high, costing at least 300 to 400 million RMB. Some media also estimated that based on the price of Black Myth: Wukong, it would take at least 3 million copies to make a profit.

However, according to statistics from the best-selling domestic games list, in just one day, the total sales of Black Myth: Wukong on multiple platforms exceeded 4.5 million copies, with total sales exceeding 1.5 billion yuan, easily crossing the break-even threshold. Goldman Sachs even gave this game an extremely high expectation of sales of 20 million copies on the Steam platform and revenue of more than 5 billion yuan.

Feng Ji, who created the hit game "Black Myth: Wukong", also had a life story that was like a novel. From an "internet-addicted teenager" who gave up on the postgraduate entrance examination to joining the game industry, and then becoming a member of Tencent's "God of War" project team, Feng Ji eventually chose an unknown entrepreneurial path and left Tencent with several old colleagues to found Game Science.

After founding Game Science, Feng Ji's team created two games, "Hundred Generals" and "Art of War: Red Tide". Until the first 13-minute live demo video of "Black Myth: Wukong" was released on Bilibili in August 2020, Game Science has since become a star game company that has attracted much attention in the gaming circle.

Radar Finance noticed that during Feng Ji's entrepreneurial process, Game Science not only gained the recognition of its co-distributor Hero Entertainment, but also attracted real financial support from its former employer Tencent. The former two became shareholders of Game Science at different times.

In fact, the popularity of Black Myth: Wukong is not limited to the gaming circle or major social platforms. This overwhelming traffic has also hit the capital market. On August 20, the share prices of Zhejiang Publishing Group, the publisher of the game, CITIC Publishing, which will participate in the publication and distribution of the game setting collection, and Huayi Brothers, which holds a small amount of indirect shares, all saw a significant boost.

In addition, brands including Hisense, Lenovo, JD.com, Didi Qingju, Zhitai, and Jicos Industrial have also made their presence felt through their collaboration with Black Myth: Wukong. As a "model worker" in the joint venture industry, Luckin Coffee's joint product "Tengyun American Coffee" with Black Myth: Wukong was snapped up.

The traffic and capital boom triggered by Black Myth: Wukong may have just begun...

"Black Myth: Wukong" is officially launched, and the domestic 3A masterpiece has set off a wave of gaming circles

At 10 am on August 20, the much-anticipated domestic 3A game Black Myth: Wukong was officially released. After the game was released, many players flocked to it, causing the Steam server to crash. One hour after the official release, the game surpassed CS2 and topped the list of the most popular games on Steam.

Three hours after its launch, the maximum number of concurrent online players of "Black Myth: Wukong" exceeded 1.44 million, ranking fourth on Steam's historical concurrent online player list, surpassing classic masterpieces such as "Elden Ring", "Cyberpunk 2077" and "DOTA2", and simultaneously refreshed the best record of concurrent online players for stand-alone games.

By the evening of August 20, the number of online players of "Black Myth: Wukong" continued to rise, reaching a peak of over 2.2 million, surpassing "Metamorphosis Paloo" released in January this year, and ranking second in the historical peak of online player numbers of all Steam games, second only to the number one "PlayerUnknown's Battlegrounds" with 3.2572 million.

At the same time, after the launch of "Black Myth: Wukong", various hot topics surrounding this game also swept across major social platforms, and many topics related to "Black Myth: Wukong" topped the hot search lists of major platforms.

As of press time, the topic "Black Myth: Wukong" alone has attracted more than 2 billion reads on Weibo, and the number of views of videos under the topic "Black Myth: Wukong" on Douyin has reached an astonishing 10 billion+.

In order to allow employees to experience the charm of this game as soon as possible, many companies even gave holidays for the launch of Black Myth: Wukong. The high popularity of Black Myth: Wukong has spread from China to overseas.

Since the story background of this game is derived from the well-known Chinese classic "Journey to the West", many foreign netizens began to urgently make up for the life experience of this "monkey". The topic "Foreign netizens began to inquire about a Chinese monkey" attracted more than 70 million readings on Weibo.

According to Feng Ji, the producer of the game, the development cost of Black Myth: Wukong is more than 20 million yuan per hour. The team estimates that the game will last more than 20 hours and the development cost will be at least 300 million to 400 million yuan.

Radar Finance learned that Black Myth: Wukong has four versions, namely the digital standard version priced at 268 yuan, the digital deluxe version priced at 328 yuan, the physical deluxe version priced at 820 yuan, and the physical collector's version priced at 1,998 yuan. According to media estimates, based on the pricing, Game Science needs to sell at least 3 million copies to make a profit.

However, Game Science no longer needs to worry about whether Black Myth: Wukong can make back its investment. Data shows that as early as one month before the game was officially released, the pre-sale sales of Black Myth: Wukong had exceeded 1.2 million copies, with pre-sales exceeding 400 million yuan.

According to statistics from the domestic game best-selling list, as of the evening of August 20, the sales of "Black Myth: Wukong" on Steam have exceeded 3 million copies, and the total sales on Wegame, EPIC and PS platforms have exceeded 4.5 million copies, and its total sales have exceeded the 1.5 billion yuan mark.

If you don't have a clear idea of ​​this sales volume, you can use the data in the "China Game Industry Report from January to June 2024" released in July as a reference. The actual sales revenue of the domestic console game market in the first half of this year was 797 million yuan. This shows how amazing the sales performance of "Black Myth: Wukong" is.

Regarding the explosive popularity of "Black Myth: Wukong", Goldman Sachs pointed out in its latest report that this is a major turning point for China's console game industry and a key step for Chinese games to go global, which may stimulate investment in China's game industry, especially 3A games.

Regarding the sales forecast for this hit game, Goldman Sachs said that using a conservative 7x conversion ratio (conversion from Steam PCCU to PC sales), under the baseline scenario, "Black Myth: Wukong" will sell more than 12 million copies on Steam, with revenue exceeding 3 billion yuan, while in an optimistic scenario it may sell 20 million copies, with revenue exceeding 5 billion yuan, which does not include sales on WeGame and PlayStation platforms.

Where did this "monkey" that shocked the gaming world come from?

The reason why "Black Myth: Wukong" has attracted such high attention on the Internet is that it is regarded by the industry as the first truly 3A game (referring to games with high development costs, long development cycles, and excellent production) masterpiece in China.

So who created the hit single-player game "Black Myth: Wukong"? Radar Finance learned that the company that developed the game "Black Myth: Wukong" is called Game Science, and the founder of this company, Feng Ji, has witnessed the difficult journey of this game from the project establishment to its official release to players.

According to the official website of "Black Myth: Wukong", the copyright of the game is owned by Youke Interactive Technology Co., Ltd. Tianyancha shows that there are three companies named Youke Interactive Technology Co., Ltd. and registered in the mainland. They are Shenzhen Youke Interactive Technology Co., Ltd. established in 2014, Hangzhou Youke Interactive Technology Co., Ltd. established in 2018, and Tianjin Youke Interactive Technology Co., Ltd. established in 2021.

Radar Finance noted that the legal representative of the three companies is Feng Ji. Hangzhou Youke Interactive is the wholly-owned shareholder of Tianjin Youke Interactive, and Shenzhen Youke Interactive is the wholly-owned shareholder of Hangzhou Youke Interactive. Feng Ji is the beneficial owner and actual controller of Shenzhen Youke Interactive, and his ultimate beneficial shareholding ratio in the company is 44.1%.

It is understood that Feng Ji, the founder and CEO of Game Science, graduated from Huazhong University of Science and Technology with a degree in biomedical engineering. Feng Ji, who was an "internet addict" when he was young, showed a strong interest in games early on. It is said that his obsession with "World of Warcraft" in his early years made Feng Ji resolutely give up the postgraduate entrance examination and devote himself to the embrace of the game world.

However, no matter how good the fun in the game is, Feng Ji still has to consider real life. In 2005, Feng Ji joined a small game company and three years later joined Tencent's "God of War" project team as the chief planner.

It is reported that "God of War" was an online game with a Journey to the West theme developed by Tencent at that time. In order to polish this game, the team spent 5 years on research and development, and also invited the famous online writer "Jin Hezai" to build the world view for this game, and even spent a huge amount of money to invite the Avatar team to pre-shoot the promotional CG.

Although this game achieved an activation rate of 99.7% and a user satisfaction rate of 90% during its internal beta test in 2012, and was regarded as one of the games with the greatest potential to be a masterpiece at the time, this game did not bring rich returns, but instead gradually became a mediocre work.

In 2014, Feng Ji left Tencent to start his own company, Game Science. Before founding this company, the team felt that the game industry in China was far from being a science (similar to the communications industry or the computer industry), but was full of various success theories inferred from current successful products.

However, the team of Game Science believes that games, like other industries, are also a rigorous discipline of 99% diligence + 1% inspiration, rather than a gambler's business of following the trend. With this belief, Game Science was officially launched. The words "game" and "science" in the company's name represent the team's hope to combine the fun and sensibility of games with the seriousness and rigor of science.

Before launching the Black Myth: Wukong project, the Game Science team had created products such as Hundred Generals and Art of War: Red Tide. Although the aforementioned games are not as popular as the current top-tier Black Myth: Wukong, the revenue from the mobile game projects that generate quick profits has laid a solid foundation for the company's continued operation.

In May 2017, Hero Entertainment (now Hero Games), the publisher of Art of War: Red Tides, spent 60 million yuan to become a 20% shareholder of Game Science through its wholly-owned subsidiary Hero Financial Holdings. Based on this calculation, Game Science was valued at about 300 million yuan at the time.

Speaking of Black Myth: Wukong, Feng Ji could not hide his love for it. In his opinion, if you have no experience with action-adventure games before, Black Myth: Wukong is the user's first love, and it will make you fall in love with this type of game. Feng Ji revealed in an interview that he started this project 8 years ago because he firmly believed that the Chinese stand-alone game market would definitely exist and would be huge.

According to Feng Ji, in 2016, the US single-player game market was worth $10 billion, Japan was worth $5 billion, and China was worth less than $100 million. At the time, he believed that within 10 to 15 years, China's single-player game market share would reach or exceed that of Japan.

Carrying the team's obsession to create a real stand-alone game, "Black Myth: Wukong", codenamed "B1", officially set sail. In August 2020, "Black Myth: Wukong" released its first 13-minute live demo video on Bilibili, which immediately attracted a lot of attention in the gaming circle. In just 2 hours, this video of "Black Myth: Wukong" became the most popular video on Bilibili, and now the video has been played more than 58 million times on Bilibili.

Interestingly, the original intention of Game Science to release this actual demo video was to recruit and promote the game, but it unexpectedly attracted widespread attention from the outside world. The originally expected 500,000 views eventually reached more than 100 times the target, which made Feng Ji call it a "lucky accident."

Recalling his experience that day, Feng Ji felt that time passed very quickly and he could not finish clicking on all the unread messages on WeChat. In order to stabilize the access channel to the official website, he even recharged the server three times.

Feng Ji also revealed that after the release of the demo video of Black Myth: Wukong, his former employer Tencent quickly organized a team to visit Game Science, and the two sides reached an agreement on cooperation. During the development of the project in 2021, Tencent acquired a 5% stake in Game Science through capital increase, but Game Science still maintained independent operation.

As time goes by, more and more players are looking forward to the official release of Black Myth: Wukong. While the expectations from the outside world make Feng Ji feel happy, they also make him feel more pressure. He is afraid that the quality of the finished product of this game will not meet everyone's expectations. He even admits that Black Myth: Wukong is lucky to stand at a high point, but it also means that there is an abyss at its feet.

In order to live up to the expectations of the outside world, the team can only do their best to polish this game. According to the recruitment page of Game Science, all of its initial founding team members are from Tencent Interactive Entertainment's self-developed studio, with an average of 13 years of experience and an average cooperation time of more than 10 years. Currently, Game Science has studios in Shenzhen and Hangzhou.

During the few years of waiting for the game to officially meet players, the popularity of "Black Myth: Wukong" continued to accumulate, until the game was officially launched on August 20, when it completely detonated the Internet and set off a carnival in the entire industry.

"Black Myth: Wukong" has set off a capital carnival, who will share this feast?

Who will share this capital feast behind the brilliant achievements of the suddenly launched "Black Myth: Wukong"?

In addition to the huge profits made by the game producer and copyright owner Game Science, many listed companies also reaped the benefits of this game. Since the official launch of Black Myth: Wukong on August 20, Zhejiang Edition Media closed at the daily limit on August 20 and August 21.

The relationship between Zhejiang Publishing Group and Black Myth: Wukong stems from the fact that its subsidiary Zhejiang Publishing Group Digital Media Co., Ltd. is the publisher of Black Myth: Wukong. On August 16, Zhejiang Publishing Group Digital Media Co., Ltd. stated on the investor interaction platform that its subsidiary Zhejiang Publishing Group Digital Media Co., Ltd. is the publisher of Black Myth: Wukong and is responsible for game content review, publication application and publication number application.

However, Zhejiang Edition Media also revealed on the investor interaction platform that the company provides game review and publishing services for "Black Myth: Wukong", does not participate in the game revenue sharing, and the company is not involved in the "Black Myth: Wukong" game peripheral products.

When asked whether there will be other cooperation with Game Science Company, Zhejiang Publishing Media stated that Zhejiang Publishing Group Digital Media Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of the company, will rely on its game review and publishing qualifications to deepen cooperation with game manufacturers and improve the publishing quality of game products.

The stock price performance of Zheban Media was also affected by the good news of the launch of Black Myth: Wukong. On August 20, the stock price of CITIC Publishing rose by 20.02% compared with the previous trading day. The relationship between CITIC Publishing and Black Myth: Wukong may be related to the previous rumors that CITIC Publishing will participate in the publication of the Black Myth: Wukong setting collection.

In response, a staff member of the Securities Department of CITIC Publishing said that CITIC Publishing is one of the companies that made peripheral products for "Black Myth: Wukong" and will publish a setting book for this game. The setting book is tentatively scheduled to be launched around November. The company has signed the relevant contract, but there is no more content to disclose at present, and the subsequent announcement will be subject to the company's announcement.

Due to the popularity of Black Myth: Wukong, many investors have raised questions about whether the company has any cooperation with Black Myth: Wukong. In response, CITIC Publishing also stated on the investor interaction platform that the information disclosed through the company's official channels shall prevail.

In addition to the two listed companies mentioned above, Huayi Brothers, whose performance and stock price performance have not been very ideal in recent years, also sat on the table of this capital feast by investing in Hero Entertainment. According to public equity information, Game Science received investment from Hero Entertainment in 2017 and held a 19% stake.

According to Hero Entertainment's 2022 financial report, Hero Entertainment has sold all 19% of its shares in Game Science in 2022 for a transfer price of 480 million yuan. Of this, 280 million yuan was received and delivered that year, and the other 200 million yuan will be paid no earlier than April 1, 2025.

However, since the shareholding of the industrial and commercial information has not changed, Hero Entertainment is still the nominal shareholder of Game Science. On the official website of Hero Entertainment, Game Science is still listed as one of the three star investment projects of Hero Entertainment along with Kuro Games and VSPN.

Currently, Huayi Brothers holds approximately 74.1836 million shares of Hero Entertainment, accounting for approximately 5.17% of the total share capital of Hero Entertainment. If calculated based on Hero Entertainment's 19% shareholding ratio, Huayi Brothers indirectly holds only about 1% of Game Science's shares. Even so, affected by the launch of the game "Black Myth: Wukong", Huayi Brothers' stock price rose by 19.9% ​​and 19.03% on August 19 and 20, respectively.

Based on the outstanding performance of "Black Myth: Wukong" in the market, many investors have asked Huayi Brothers intensive questions on the investor interaction platform, such as "If "Black Myth: Wukong" sells well, will it have a positive impact on your company's performance?" "Will the company's holdings in Hero Entertainment have a significant impact on the company's earnings after "Black Myth: Wukong" is launched?" However, as of press time, Huayi Brothers has not yet made a clear response.

In addition, Luckin Coffee, which has been very keen on joint ventures in recent years, also did not forget to get a share of the benefits of Black Myth: Wukong. On August 19, the day before Black Myth: Wukong was released, the "Tengyun Americano", a drink jointly launched by Luckin Coffee and Black Myth: Wukong, was launched first, and the set meal with 3D posters and other peripherals was quickly sold out.

That afternoon, Luckin Coffee released a "Restock Notice", saying that consumer enthusiasm far exceeded the team's expectations, and a replenishment plan has been quickly formulated for the limited posters, and the next batch of goods will take 15 days to produce. Seeing the hot market feedback of the "Tenyun American" co-branded products, even Luckin's Chief Growth Officer (CGO) Yang Fei said in his circle of friends, "The surrounding areas across the country were sold out in seconds, and the system almost collapsed. The male purchasing power overturned the team's cognition this morning." He also said in the comment area that "it is more reliable than 10 Father's Days."

According to incomplete statistics, many brands including Hisense, Lenovo, JD.com, Didi Qingju, Zhitai, and Jikos Industrial have also established cooperation with "Black Myth: Wukong" at different business or product levels.

What kind of world will this "monkey", which has already become famous in the gaming industry, create in the future? Radar Finance will continue to pay attention.