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This article was written by Zhang Yue and Xiang Kuanhu (Research Assistant of Lingpeng Industry and Innovation Research Institute). The header image is generated by AI.

1. The peak season is late but here

This year's manufacturing peak season seems to be slightly delayed compared to previous years. If we observe the trend of wage changes on an Internet blue-collar recruitment platform, we can see that starting from August 10, as orders gradually pick up, wages have begun to rise significantly, marking the start of this year's manufacturing peak season.

However, when we compare this year's wage trend with last year's, we find that this year's wage only began to rise significantly in mid-August, while last year's wage had already shown an upward trend during the peak season, that is, starting from the end of July.

It is worth noting that although the peak season labor price increase this year started later than last year, from February to July, this year's labor price was higher than the same period last year. However, judging from the trend in the first half of August, the current labor price level has remained relatively the same as last year.

2. Large factories took the lead in raising prices, driving the labor market to recover

According to historical experience, August to December each year is the peak production season for the manufacturing industry. Due to their sufficient order volume and stable cash flow, the daily price trend chart classified by enterprise size shows that "large factories" (the top five companies in terms of recruitment scale) can offer wages that are higher than the market average. During the peak season of each year, when wages are rising, "large factories" usually take the lead in the market with their absolute wage advantage and become the main force in the peak season recruitment market. Among them,appleThe main foundry of China has a place among these "big factories".

As Apple's new phone launch is approaching, Apple's major foundries have begun to recruit workers for the peak season. These manufacturers offer high wages during the peak season every year, thereby attracting a group of flexible employment groups across the country. According to a report by Times Finance, since the end of July, the labor demand for the iPhone series production line of Foxconn in Henan has grown rapidly, with the highest hourly wage for workers rising to 25 yuan, and a bonus of 7,500 yuan for working in the manufacturing workshop for three months. At least 50,000 new employees have entered the factory in two weeks, and large-scale recruitment is still continuing.

According to the latest market news, by mid-August, the hourly wage for hiring at Suzhou manufacturing companies had increased to 30 yuan, and other companies followed suit and raised their wages. This phenomenon of price increases led by "big companies" to "grab talent" has led to a rebound in the wage level in the flexible employment market.

3. No one in the market?

 
Since the fourth quarter of 2022, multiple factors such as weak international demand, shifting manufacturing orders, and the electronics industry entering the inventory clearance stage have had a profound impact on the manufacturing industry. In particular, in 2023, the labor demand in the manufacturing industry, especially the electronics manufacturing industry, has declined significantly year-on-year.

However, in the first half of this year, the labor demand in the manufacturing industry has gradually stabilized and is similar to the labor demand level in the same period of 2023. Despite this, the number of active job seekers in the manufacturing industry has not yet returned to its previous level. According to the platform's statistics, the number of interviews from April to July this year is still on a downward trend year-on-year. This to some extent explains the phenomenon that the wage level in the first half of this year has increased compared with last year.

Judging from the trend of labor prices, the peak season recruitment for the manufacturing industry only officially started this week, which is slightly later than in previous years. The latest data shows that as labor prices rise, the number of interviews is also increasing. Historical experience shows that peak season labor prices will remain for a period of time, and the market labor supply is expected to continue to increase.

We have also received confirmation from platform brokers that some members who are still in their hometowns have begun planning or are going to Suzhou, Dongguan, Shenzhen and other manufacturing clusters to participate in manufacturing work in the form of flexible employment after learning that the wages during the peak season have increased. Overall, the wages during the peak season are still attractive to the flexible employment group, and it is expected that the labor shortage in the manufacturing industry will improve in the future.

4. Has the attractiveness of manufacturing weakened?

We recently talked to some manufacturing workers to understand their views on the current labor market. Among them, Xiao Li, who just came to Kunshan from Shaanxi and is in his early 30s, plans to save some money by taking advantage of the high wages during the peak season. He told us that he mainly takes some home decoration-related welding odd jobs in his hometown, and his daily income can reach 400 to 500 yuan, which he is satisfied with.

However, such a "high salary" is not stable. Sometimes he may not have work for several days in a row. He calculated that due to the current downturn in the industry, his monthly income is sometimes only about 5,000. Through the recommendation of a friend, he learned that the manufacturing industry has increased its wages during the peak season, and he can expect to earn more than 7,000 a month. So he plans to work until the end of the year and save some money to go home.

We also met a man named Wu who had switched from manufacturing to working as a knight for nearly three months. He was attracted by the high wages in Kunshan and came to Kunshan to find a job at the beginning of the year. However, after trying several "big factories", he found that he was not used to the feeling of being constrained. After hearing his fellow workers discussing the freedom of working as a knight, he decided to try this profession. After persisting for a while, he has now adapted to this job. He also told us that even in the off-season of the manufacturing industry in the first half of the year, his salary as a knight can be more than 6,000 yuan, which is a few hundred yuan more than working in the manufacturing industry. The only drawback is that he needs to bear the expenses of food and accommodation by himself.

In the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions where manufacturing industries are concentrated, companies have obvious tidal employment characteristics. During the peak season every year, a large number of workers come from other regions and choose to work flexibly in manufacturing factories when wages are high. The annual income level of this group of people depends to a large extent on the peak season wages.

At the same time, the development of the service industry has provided these groups with more employment options, which makes the manufacturing industry less attractive during the off-season, but many workers are still willing to work in the manufacturing industry during the peak season. The brokers on the platform also confirmed this view. They told us that when they learned that the peak season for manufacturing was coming, about half of the workers were willing to work. However, the labor force in the market has not increased rapidly, which may be related to the wait-and-see attitude of workers who expect wages to continue to rise.

The development of the manufacturing industry has not only created a large number of direct employment opportunities, but also spawned numerous service jobs, such as human resources intermediaries, peripheral life services, and urban distribution jobs generated by increased platform consumption. These are all industrial chain effects of the development of the manufacturing industry, reflecting the deep integration of the manufacturing industry and the service industry.

In general, the attractiveness of the manufacturing industry has not weakened, but has shown dynamic changes. During the peak season, the manufacturing industry can attract a large number of workers; during the off-season, the service industry provides more employment options. This reveals that the development of the manufacturing and service industries has provided the labor market with a broader employment space and more diverse choices.