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As the Mid-Autumn Festival peak season approaches, how the liquor market will perform has become a hot topic.

At present, leading liquor companies such as Moutai, Langjiu, and Yanghe Shares (002304.SZ) are actively planning for the Mid-Autumn Festival. Judging from Shuijingfang (600779.SZ), channel research, and brokerage reports, the liquor industry as a whole tends to be "cautious" about the Mid-Autumn peak season. Based on high channel inventories, liquor industry analysts believe that the Mid-Autumn Festival is a good time to destock.

However, "caution" also reveals certain optimistic and positive factors. Data such as the rise in liquor prices in July and the growth in total retail sales of consumer goods have brought certain optimistic expectations for the performance of liquor during the Mid-Autumn Festival peak season.

Head wine companies are taking frequent actionsThe Mid-Autumn Festival "marketing war" officially started

Manufacturers are currently increasing their marketing efforts in preparation for the Mid-Autumn Festival peak season.

It is reported that Langjiu recently held the "China Lang·Fujian Bo Bing Cultural Festival" in Fujian, aiming to integrate the local "Bo Bing" cultural customs to carry out marketing for the Mid-Autumn Festival. In addition, the company's "Spiritual China Lang·Langjiu Thousand Merchants Association" was also recently launched in Urumqi and other cities, and the "Spiritual China Lang Night" concert was held in Xi'an in August.

Langjiu "Bobing" Cultural Festival, photographed by Nanduwan Finance reporter

Yanghe has launched the "Drink Yanghe during Mid-Autumn Festival Reunion, Get 10,000 Huawei Phones First" campaign. That is, from August 15th to November 30th, open bottles of Ocean Blue (22nd Edition), Sky Blue (21st Edition), Dream Blue Crystal Edition, Dream Blue M6+, Dream Blue M9 and Yanghe Daqu (Classic Edition), Yanghe Daqu (Joyful), Yanghe Daqu (Revival Edition), and Yanghe Daqu (Celadon) products to participate and have a chance to win a Huawei phone.

In view of the Mid-Autumn Festival peak season, major wine companies have also launched "Mid-Autumn Festival gift boxes".

Recently, a limited edition of 85,000 sets of Moutai 2024 Mid-Autumn Festival gift boxes were released. The gift box contains 2 bottles of 53-proof 200ml Kweichow Moutai (Guimao Mid-Autumn Festival model), a moon-watching telescope, etc.; the Yanghe·Mengzhilan Mid-Autumn Festival gift box launched by Yanghe includes a pair of 260m customized Mengzhilan, two decks of customized throwing egg poker, etc.

The picture comes from Maotai Time and Space

There will be fewer orders before the festival, and Mid-Autumn Festival is a good time to clear inventory

According to the sales rhythm of previous years, as the Mid-Autumn Festival peak season approaches, major dealers, wine company offices, etc. have successively organized distributors and terminal merchants to hold ordering meetings, tasting meetings, etc. to distribute the inventory in their hands, and then the distribution channels, terminal merchants and group purchases will push the goods to the market.

Therefore, the popularity of dealers' ordering and tasting meetings before the Mid-Autumn Festival is a barometer for predicting whether the festival will be prosperous or not. According to the reporter, Qiankunfu Trading, Shanghai Handi Liquor, Chengdu Jinjiuda Trading Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Sutang, etc. have all held Mid-Autumn ordering and tasting meetings in recent days to prepare for the Mid-Autumn Festival. A person in the liquor industry said that overall, not many dealers held ordering and tasting meetings on the market this year.

The reason for the lack of ordering and tasting meetings may be that the channel inventory is high, and each link in the channel needs to further digest the inventory in hand. High channel inventory is also a keyword that executives of wine companies such as Shuijingfang and Luzhou Laojiao have repeatedly emphasized recently.

"From the consumer side, the liquor consumption market has entered a period of transformation, the liquor industry has entered a cooling-off period, consumer demand is slightly weak, the problem of 'high inventory' is more prominent, and the dual rationality concept of 'consumption rationality + price rationality' continues to emerge on the consumer side. From the price side, the increase in liquor supply and changes in consumer purchasing power have led to unstable prices in the national liquor market." This is how Shuijingfang described the current situation in the liquor industry in its semi-annual report.

Therefore, with high inventory levels, the arrival of the Mid-Autumn Festival is a good time for the industry to destock. Xiao Zhuqing, a liquor industry analyst, told a reporter from Nanduwan Finance: "The current problem of the entire liquor industry is still the lack of social purchasing power. The upcoming festival will have a certain positive effect on destocking. If the destocking during this Mid-Autumn Festival does not meet expectations, it may accelerate the formation of a barrier lake phenomenon in the liquor industry."

"Festival consumption has a strong driving effect, but affected by the overall environment, it may only be slightly better than usual. It is more likely that national and local famous liquors will take advantage of the rigid business and gift demand during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day to accelerate channel distribution and terminal sales, and will be the direct beneficiaries. Most wine companies are still deeply trapped in the industry adjustment cycle, and it is highly likely that they will complete a wave of inventory reduction with the help of the Mid-Autumn Festival." Another wine industry analyst, Cai Xuefei, expressed a similar view to Nandu reporters.

Wine companies are cautiously optimistic，Channel expectations are pessimistic

Shuijingfang and other liquor companies are cautiously optimistic about this year's Mid-Autumn Festival. Recently, Shuijingfang told investors in a research and information activity: "We remain cautiously optimistic about this year's Mid-Autumn Festival peak season." Against the backdrop of the adjustment of the liquor cycle, problems such as unstable terminal prices and high channel inventory have frequently emerged. Being "cautious" about the performance of Mid-Autumn liquor is the voice of some liquor companies.

An insider of a leading liquor company admitted: "The performance of the liquor market during the Mid-Autumn Festival will definitely depend on the company's own product strength, marketing strength and brand strength, etc. On the other hand, it still depends on the recovery of consumption this year, because liquor is an industry that is strongly related to the macro economy."

Judging from the macro-consumption data, there are many optimistic and positive factors in the liquor industry. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on August 15, the total retail sales of consumer goods in July increased by 2.7% year-on-year, 0.7 percentage points faster than the previous month, and increased by 0.35% month-on-month, down 0.1% from the previous month. Among them, the retail sales of goods increased by 2.7% year-on-year, 1.2 percentage points faster than the previous month.

Among them, the price of liquor increased by 0.2% month-on-month in July. It is worth noting that whether the price of liquor rises before the festival is also one of the key factors in determining whether the Mid-Autumn Festival is a busy season.

Song Shuyu, chairman of the China Alcoholic Drinks Association, recently said that in the first half of this year, the national liquor production, sales revenue and profits increased by 3%, 11% and 15% year-on-year respectively, achieving a situation of increasing quantity, price and profit.

In addition, liquor export data also performed well. According to data recently released by the China Alcoholic Drinks Association, the total export volume of liquor in the first half of this year was 7,738 kiloliters, with a total export value of 2.874 billion yuan. Among them, the export volume of liquor in June was 1,257 kiloliters, with an export value of 232 million yuan.

In terms of channels, Guosen Securities recently pointed out in its research report that July is the off-season for liquor, and the overall situation is stable. The channel payment ratio is still low, the terminal sales flow is slow, and the consumption downgrade phenomenon still exists. The channel is pessimistic about the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, and it is expected that this year will still interpret "weak expectations and weak reality".

There is also a market view that, based on recent channel survey feedback, most dealers expressed neutral to pessimistic expectations for the Mid-Autumn Festival. Taking into account the low base factor of the same period last year, it is predicted that sales will remain the same or increase slightly, which is basically in line with current market expectations.

Sales of leading wine companies remain stable，Industry differentiation continues

Nanduwan Finance reporter recently learned from Wuliangye (000858.SZ), Shanxi Fenjiu (600809.SH) and other leading liquor companies that the current sales rhythm is stable. Judging from the semi-annual report data of liquor companies such as Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH), Shuijingfang and Yingjia Gongjiu (603198.SH), the overall growth momentum is strong.

Photo by Nanduwan Finance reporter

The liquor industry is concentrated in the top liquor companies, and the industry differentiation trend is still continuing. The "2024 China Liquor Market Mid-term Research Report" released by the China Alcoholic Drinks Association shows that from 2023 to 2024, the liquor industry will show a strong concentration and differentiation development trend.

The differentiation of the industry is also reflected in the changes in the "price band". "The rigidity of consumption of mass-priced and mid-high-end products already exists. We will deploy marketing measures in the second half of the year through intensive research and observation of competitive products." Shuijingfang responded in a recent research activity. The "mass-priced and mid-high-end" emphasized by Shuijingfang refers to the company's products such as Zhenjiu No. 8. Shuijingfang has repeatedly emphasized that products in the corresponding price band are expected to benefit in the current consumption environment.

According to the "2024 China Liquor Mid-term Research Report" previously released by the China Alcoholic Drinks Association, from January to June 2024, distributors and retailers in the liquor market reported that the top three price ranges with the best market sales were 300-500 yuan, 100-300 yuan, and 100 yuan and below.

A person related to the liquor channel also told the Nanduwan Financial reporter that from the perspective of the sales market, liquors with a high cost-performance ratio are indeed selling well, especially liquors with better taste, higher quality and lower prices have performed well recently.

Zhang Haixia, trainee reporter at Nandu Wancaishe