British media: China remains prosperous in an unstable world
2024-08-17
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An article published in The Economist on August 15, titled: How China Can Maintain Prosperity in a Turbulent World Modern China is a great power with a guerrilla history. This helps explain China’s response to crises, including the current unrest in the Middle East.According to the United States and other established powers, China has a unique influence on countries in the region and an unusual need for stability in the Middle East. China is the world's largest importer of oil and liquefied natural gas, purchasing such products from Iran and Arab countries. China is also a major regional investor, with tens of billions of dollars in investments in countries such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.As the world's largest manufacturer, China is particularly exposed to the surge in global shipping costs. When the Houthi rebels launched drone and missile attacks in Yemen, the Red Sea and the Suez Canal were almost closed to container ships, and Chinese exports to Europe had to go through Africa.The Biden administration and other Western governments have been asking China for months to pressure Iran and the Houthis. In meetings with Western officials, Chinese diplomats have both hinted at messages to Iran and downplayed their leverage with Tehran. China has not sent warships to join the U.S.-led escort coalition and has noted that the U.S. and British strikes in Yemen were not approved by the Security Council.In Beijing, Western diplomats privately say that Chinese politicians think they can easily play the role of peace broker. At the same time, China knows that its call for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and its clear support for a Palestinian state are consistent with the views of most countries, especially those in the "global south." The most radical voices in the West argue that while China would certainly prefer a quieter world, today's chaos at least keeps American aircraft carriers and diplomatic envoys in the Middle East instead of causing trouble around China.To Chinese foreign policy and security scholars, such Western analysis is shallow and crude. "How much of the US military can the Houthis in the Red Sea contain? Not much, that's too simple," said Hu Bo, director of the Center for Maritime Strategy Studies at Peking University. Chinese exporters do face higher costs after the Red Sea is closed, but there is no evidence that the losses are "unbearable." The professor said that escorting in the Red Sea without UN authorization "means that China is against the Houthis, or against Iran," which violates China's neutral position in the Middle East. He also said that frankly speaking, the Red Sea crisis "is not at China's doorstep," so the Chinese can't help but ask: "Why should we help the United States solve this trouble?"Zhou Bo, a researcher at Tsinghua University's Center for Strategic and Security Studies, rebuked Western governments. He said the root cause of the crisis "is because of the Israeli bombing and killing in Gaza." He also said the Houthis have said Chinese-flagged ships are not their targets and that most Chinese cargo ships have taken a detour around the Cape of Good Hope. Mr. Zhou warned that frigates and destroyers have limited air defense capabilities. What was the purpose of these warships entering the Red Sea and firing at the Houthis, he asked? As for the issue of China's pressure on Iran, "The key question is, what is the cost of using influence?"An executive of a multinational company in China went further and said, "We should be very careful in assessing the adverse impact on China." He said that when the epidemic caused serious damage to the supply chain and freight market, Chinese companies quickly adjusted and snatched business from slower competitors. "China prefers stability, but when there is chaos, they think of opportunities instead of hiding."Mr Zhou thinks there is "some truth" to this argument. He says Chinese companies are active in unstable regions of Africa and the Middle East where it's hard to make money. He argues that unlike Western companies that need a quick return, Chinese companies will endure hardship and grab market share. The goal is to outpace competitors and reap the rewards later. Mr Zhou draws a comparison with the Long March. It was during the Chinese Civil War, when the Red Army crossed snow-capped mountains, crossed turbulent rivers and walked through deadly swamps, knowing that their enemy - the larger and better-armed Kuomintang army - would not pursue them.Today's Chinese diplomats are acting in a similar way to the Red Army guerrillas of the past. They are careful to avoid crises that could trap China, while pushing for quick, eye-catching victories. China is a great power with global interests, but its rulers are still the Communist Party that fights selectively and makes strategic shifts, surviving the Long March. (Translated by Qiao Heng)▲
