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The 10 trillion commercial housing market that has been in the public's eyes for many years may be more difficult to achieve this year.

According to the "Basic Situation of the National Real Estate Market from January to July 2024" released by the National Bureau of Statistics on August 15, in the first seven months of this year, the national commercial housing sales amounted to 467.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.9%; the national new commercial housing sales amounted to 533.30 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.3%.

In 2023, even if the sales volume of commercial housing in China fell by 6.5% year-on-year from 2022, it would still reach 10 trillion yuan, or 11,662.2 billion yuan. Now, seven months into 2024, the sales volume of commercial housing in China is less than half of that in 2023.

Data shows that from January to July this year, the national real estate development investment was 608.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.2% (calculated on a comparable basis); among them, residential investment was 462.30 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.6%.

The housing construction area of ​​real estate development enterprises was 7032.86 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 12.1%. Among them, the residential construction area was 4915.32 million square meters, a decrease of 12.7%. The newly started housing area was 437.33 million square meters, a decrease of 23.2%. Among them, the newly started residential area was 316.84 million square meters, a decrease of 23.7%. The completed housing area was 300.17 million square meters, a decrease of 21.8%. Among them, the completed residential area was 218.67 million square meters, a decrease of 21.8%.

In terms of new commercial housing sales, from January to July this year, the sales area of ​​new commercial housing nationwide was 541.49 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 18.6%, of which residential sales area decreased by 21.1%. The sales of new commercial housing amounted to 533.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.3%, of which residential sales amounted to 467.87 billion yuan, a decrease of 25.9%.

At the end of July, the area of ​​commercial housing for sale nationwide was 739.26 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%, of which the area of ​​residential housing for sale increased by 22.5%.

In terms of funds in place for real estate developers, from January to July this year, the funds in place for real estate developers were 6190.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.3%. Among them, domestic loans were 921.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.3%; foreign capital was 1.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 45.0%; self-raised funds were 2205.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.7%; deposits and advance payments were 1869.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.7%; and personal mortgage loans were 874.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 37.3%.

In July, the real estate development boom index (referred to as the "National Real Estate Boom Index") was 92.22, an increase from June.

"Summarizing the data from the first seven months of this year, there are positive signals in the continuous adjustment of real estate." Yan Yuejin, deputy director of Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute, analyzed that in July this year, various indicators showed continuous improvement, among which the decline of the new construction index narrowed for 5 consecutive months, the decline of commercial housing sales narrowed for 2 consecutive months, the growth rate of area for sale decreased for 2 consecutive months, the year-on-year growth rate of funds in place narrowed for 4 consecutive months, and the decline of commercial housing sales prices narrowed for 2 consecutive months.

Yan Yuejin believes that the continuous improvement of such indicators suggests that we should start to pay attention to new market opportunities to build a bottom in the near future. It is expected that the subsequent market development will further improve, various favorable policies will continue, and there are signs of stabilization at the price level.

Written by: Southern Metropolis Daily reporter Qiu Yongfen