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"Boss Lei, I think weXiaomi SU7BundleModel 3It should have been PK, do you think our Ledao L60 is comparable?Model YIs there any chance? "

"You didn't even let me test drive it."

"Just looking at its appearance, it's very attractive. I will definitely let you test drive it next time. We really put a lot of thought into it."

On May 20, Beijing time, a special time full of love, Li Bin and Lei Jun, two of the most popular "traffic leaders" in the Chinese auto industry, met. Their common goal was Tesla, which has made a lot of money in China in the past few years.

At that time, the US new energy vehicle company was experiencing a serious "Mercury retrograde". Looking at the retail data of Model 3 in April alone, there were only 5,065 units. On the other hand, Xiaomi SU7 successfully defeated it with 7,058 units delivered.

Hence, the opening conversation.

But in the eyes of more onlookers, Model 3 is just experiencing the so-called "shock", and it is definitely not a foregone conclusion whether Xiaomi SU7 has already won.

In May and June, Model 3 domestic sales quickly recovered to 15,230 and 18,151 units, while Xiaomi SU7 sales were 8,646 and 14,296 units. The victory undoubtedly returned to Tesla, and Model 3 still occupies the dominant position in the 200,000-300,000 yuan new energy sedan market.

But in July, the battle situation changed again. The crazy output of Xiaomi SU7 once again defeated the slightly weak Model 3 at the beginning of each quarter with 13,120 units sold, which was 9,928 units.

Faced with such alternating leads, some of the views in my mind became more and more certain.

First, let me ask a question: "What is the peak monthly sales volume of Model 3 in China?"

Following the trend, looking at the relevant data, it points to 30,919 vehicles in September 2022. So, do you think it can go back? I believe the subtitle of this paragraph is the answer in many people's minds.

Although at this stage, Model 3 can still be regarded as an "industry hit", it is no longer the same as it once was when it was the only one in the market and had an unshakable initiative.

Even though the long-awaited "renewed version" was finally released last year, and this year the official price was directly reduced and the "5-year 0 interest" was offered in an attempt to stimulate potential customers, the feedback from the terminal was not as enthusiastic and ideal as expected.

Model 3 lost to Xiaomi SU7 twice in a single month, which is actually just a microcosm of its gradual "decline".

As mentioned before: "The entry of the latter is like a blazing flame, which completely ignites the dry wood surrounding the former, while the long-term siege of other independent new energy cars has made these dry wood pile up more and more."

In other words, everyone's joint siege is the key to bringing Model 3 down from the altar.

In addition to Xiaomi SU7, there are definitely otherXiaopengP7、NIO ET5family,BYD Hanfamily,BYD Sealfamily,Nezha S、Leapmotor C01、Dark blue SL03、Avita 12、SmartS7、Zeekr007、auspiciousGalaxy E8、Lynk & Co 07、Zhiji L6.Extreme07、Lynk & CoStrong rivals such as Z10 and Xiaopeng P7+ will also be entering the market one after another.

"It's so tight, so tight that I can't help but feel suffocated."

At this moment, it is not an exaggeration to use the above sentence to describe the new energy car market of 200,000-300,000 yuan. It is becoming increasingly difficult for Model 3 to share in it.

Of course, leaving aside the impact of external competition, internal constraints cannot be ignored either.

I don't know if you have noticed that a situation is occurring frequently: many consumers who have a budget of more than 200,000 yuan and are ready to buy a new energy car will always put Model 3 first in their list of candidates, but then in rounds of competition with independent players, they will ruthlessly kick it out.

The fundamental reason is that its advantages in comprehensive product strength are being rapidly eroded. In addition, the brand halo is not as dazzling as before, and the days of having to buy it are gone.

Looking deeper, Tesla, as a global car company, has basically fixed development rhythms and new product launch nodes for all its models.

But the current situation is that in the European and American markets, even if there is no upgrade for several years, it can still dominate the market without restraint. In the Chinese market, numerous competitors are eager to use a half-year iteration cycle to erode and grab the "cake".

The "divided" environment makes Tesla seem very conflicted, and is also the root cause of the Model 3's obstruction.

"Model 3 can lose, but Model Y can't afford to lose."

If you understand Tesla's current situation in China, you should understand the hidden meaning behind the above sentence. To put it more bluntly, since the peak in 2022, the base of Model 3 has been shrinking, and the key to this American new energy vehicle company's continued success is still to sell the pure electric SUV - Model Y.

After all, the numbers don't lie.

In the first seven months of this year, the latter's contribution to sales reached 29,912, 22,537, 47,917, 26,356, 39,985, 41,110 and 36,299 respectively. Among them, it even won the "single model monthly sales champion" in the Chinese auto market many times.

So, new questions arise: Why is Model Y so strong?

To be fair, there are almost no pure electric SUVs in the 200,000-300,000 yuan range that can truly compete with it, which seems to be a big part of the reason.Ideal L6、QJM7、Tang DM、Leapmotor C11、QJM5, these new energy players rely on "fuel tanks".

The target customer groups between the two parties do not completely overlap.

It is precisely based on this background that Model Y has been able to be in a relatively "blue ocean" segment for a long time, harvesting as many orders as possible.

But in my opinion, the impact is very similar to that of Model 3, and its good days are probably coming to an end. Because in the second half of the year, several independent pure electric SUVs that are completely targeted at Model Y will be launched.

In addition to the Ledao L60 mentioned at the beginning of the article, the other two that cannot be underestimated are the Zeekr 7X and Zhijie R7.Xiaomi MotorsThe second product.

It must be admitted that these "Four Little Dragons" have the real strength to compete with Model Y in terms of product definition, technical reserves, and brand halo.

To be rational and objective, when all their cards are played and production capacity is ramping up smoothly, the cluster offensive formed will be enough to make Tesla suffer. Even if it cannot completely defeat Model Y in the end, it should not be a problem to grab more than 10,000 orders per month.

Moreover, according to Musk's spoiler, the "renovated version" of Model Y will definitely not arrive this year. Somehow, I always feel that the entry of these "four little dragons" gradually has a hint of "taking advantage of your illness to kill you".

From this, we can't help but imagine that if the remaining market share of Model 3 continues to shrink and Model Y's position is at risk, Tesla's situation in China will become even more difficult.

At this point, the article is gradually coming to an end, and finally a set of data is brought out. According to the weekly ranking released by Ideal, Tesla sold a total of 15,500 new cars in the past 7 days, ranking second only to Tesla among all new energy brands.BYD, surpassing BBA and ranking first among all luxury brands.

Faced with such performance, some readers will surely question the tone of the article and shout out the famous slogan, "I have never won online, and I have never lost in sales."

As a rebuttal, I want to say: "Wait a little longer, time will give the proof."

｜Cui Liwen｜

I love cars like my life.

I love electric cars more~