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In the first half of 2024, Beijing's housing market policies were gradually relaxed with small steps and fast progress. Driven by favorable policies, Beijing's housing prices and transaction volumes were stable in the first half of the year. According to data from Centaline Property Research Institute, in the first seven months of this year, Beijing's second-hand housing online signing volume fell slightly by 4% year-on-year, and increased by 10% over the previous year. Against the background of changes in the market supply and demand structure, it still showed the characteristics of "stability".

The emergence of popular housing projects has improved the demand of buyers who want to buy houses instead of replacing them

As the national real estate market enters a deep adjustment phase, the emergence of "star hot projects" has become more eye-catching. According to statistics from multiple third-party institutions, the Zhonghai Jinghua Jiuxu project located in the West Second Ring Road of Beijing topped the Beijing residential transaction amount list in the first half of the year with a total of 218 signed contracts and a total transaction price of approximately RMB 7.451 billion, thanks to its high sales rate and high transaction price per unit.

In addition to the high-priced pure improvement projects in the core area, some improvement projects that focus on scarcity have also attracted the attention of homebuyers. At around 4 pm on August 13, although it was a weekday afternoon, there were still six or seven families looking at houses at the Longhu Guancui sales office in Qinghe, Haidian. "There are not many new housing projects with large balconies in Beijing, and I came here to see the model room today." Mr. Qin, who works in Haidian, said that his family had a second baby this year and was planning to take advantage of the favorable policies to replace the old and dilapidated house in Haidian with a new house of better quality.

At 5:30 pm on the 13th, the reporter came to the sales office of Yujingxingcheng Yuanqi in Xihongmen area of ​​Daxing District. The project focuses on fine decoration quality and rare small-area three-bedroom apartment types, which also attracted some citizens to visit on weekdays. There were five or six groups of families sitting in the negotiation area in the sales office hall, and three or four groups of families gathered in front of the sand table to listen to the sales explanation.

During the visit, the reporter also noticed that the real estate projects that were particularly popular before and after the introduction of the "626" new policy of "lowering down payments and interest rates" in Beijing have gradually returned to calm. In particular, Jiuyue Mansion and Oak Bay in the Xihongmen area, where special-price houses are frequently available, have seen a decrease in the number of people looking at houses after the special-price houses are gradually cleared out. The salesperson at the Jiuyue Mansion sales office told the reporter that the special-price houses have basically been sold out, with only a few units on the first and second floors left, and the choice space is small.

During the visit, a real estate agent told reporters that Beijing's new housing projects are unevenly popular. Only those with scarcity, great appreciation potential or affordable prices are popular, especially the price factor. "The situation of second-hand housing is similar. 'Price for volume' is basically the main trend in the first half of this year." Since May and June this year, the transaction volume of old, dilapidated and small houses with low total prices, good supporting facilities and good locations has increased significantly. "Old, dilapidated and small houses have dropped more in price than other houses, and buyers with just-in-time needs dare to buy them." said a real estate agent in the Huaibai area of ​​Xicheng.

Policies are favorable and real estate market adjustment policies have been released 9 times

As a first-tier city that serves as a bellwether for the national real estate market, Beijing once faced an irrational rise in housing prices. Therefore, starting in 2017, Beijing has introduced a series of regulatory policies to implement the principle of "housing for living, not for speculation."

Today, in order to adapt to the new changes in the supply and demand relationship in the real estate market, gradually relaxing the previous strict policy measures that have accidentally hurt some citizens who have the need to buy houses for their own use has become the main theme of policy adjustments. According to statistics, Beijing has made nine real estate policy adjustments in eight months since September 2023.

From last year's "recognizing housing but not loans", lowering the down payment ratio and mortgage interest rate, optimizing the general housing standard, to this year's cancellation of the restriction on divorced families not being able to buy a house within three years, Beijing families purchasing a second house can buy a new house outside the Fifth Ring Road, further reducing the down payment for the first house to 20%, and lowering the floor interest rate to no less than LPR (loan market benchmark rate) minus 45 basis points.

Among them, the most concerned by home buyers is Beijing's official announcement on June 26 that the "517" policy will be implemented, which will reduce both the down payment and loan interest rates, lowering the threshold for home purchases and easing the pressure of home purchases. Ms. Lin, who was looking at a house, told reporters that she had taken a fancy to a new house in Chaoyang District with a total price of about 7.6 million yuan, and planned to pay nearly 50% of the down payment. Due to the lower interest rate and the 10 basis point drop in the LPR at the end of July, her monthly payment can be reduced from nearly 17,000 yuan to less than 16,000 yuan.

Beijing's real estate market is expected to stabilize in the future

Data from the China Real Estate Research Institute show that in the first seven months of this year, the online signing volume of second-hand houses in Beijing reached 90,355 units, a slight decrease of 4% from the same period last year, but an increase of 10% from January to July of the previous year.

According to the "Beijing Real Estate Market Operation Status in the First Half of 2024" released by the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of the year, the sales area of ​​newly built commercial housing in the city was 5.099 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%, of which the residential sales area was 3.553 million square meters, a decrease of 6.2%.

Although the transaction volume of second-hand and new houses in the first half of the year both fell year-on-year, the good news is that the number of second-hand houses listed is decreasing significantly. According to statistics from Centaline Property Research Institute, the number of second-hand houses listed in the city has dropped from 172,000 at the end of April to about 155,000 now, a decrease of about 20,000 overall. "This is the first time this has happened since September 2023, indicating that market anxiety has eased," said Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Property Research Institute.

In addition, affected by favorable policies, Beijing's second-hand housing online signing volume rose against the market trend in July this year, reaching 15,575 units, a month-on-month increase of 3.92% and a year-on-year increase of about 60%. This is the first time that it has exceeded 15,000 units since March last year, setting a record high in the past 16 months.

"In fact, the number of second-hand housing online signings in Beijing in June and July increased significantly both month-on-month and year-on-year. This is a very important signal. The destocking of second-hand housing will have a very big boost to the new housing market." Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, analyzed that in the second half of this year, although the policy effect will begin to decline, the policy of reducing down payments and interest rates will continue to promote the purchase of houses by young people and new citizens. In addition, there is still a certain expectation of falling housing prices in the market. Promoting the replacement of old houses with new ones and opening up the whole chain cycle will be the key to maintaining the stability of the real estate market.