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Cailianshe News, August 13 (Reporter Wang Haichun)Rumors have once again emerged in Shenzhen that the local government may relax its purchase restriction policy.

Recently, there have been market rumors that Shenzhen plans to continue to optimize its real estate policies, or further lower the threshold for purchase restrictions. Except for the core areas where purchase restrictions will remain, social security requirements may be cancelled in other areas.

Regarding this rumor, the reporter verified it with the relevant departments in Shenzhen. The Shenzhen Housing and Construction Bureau stated that according to Shenzhen’s current policies, local resident families (including families with some family members who are local residents) can purchase two commercial housing units. Local resident families with two or more underage children can purchase another house in Yantian District, Bao’an District (excluding Xin’an Sub-district and Xixiang Sub-district), Longgang District, Longhua District, Pingshan District, Guangming District, and Dapeng New District on the basis of the current purchase restriction policy; adult singles with local household registration (including divorced persons) can purchase one commercial housing unit.

Families without Shenzhen household registration and adult singles (including divorced persons) who have paid individual income tax or social insurance in Shenzhen for one year or more can purchase one commercial housing unit in Yantian District, Bao'an District (excluding Xin'an Sub-district and Xixiang Sub-district), Longgang District, Longhua District, Pingshan District, Guangming District and Dapeng New District (for areas other than the aforementioned areas, the individual income tax or social insurance must have been paid in the city for three years or more in a row).

In addition, according to Shenzhen’s current policies, from July 30, 2018, newly purchased commercial apartments by individuals, enterprises, institutions, social organizations and other legal entities are prohibited from transferring within 5 years from the date of obtaining the real estate registration certificate; newly purchased commercial housing by resident households (excluding talent housing and affordable commercial housing) are prohibited from transferring within 3 years from the date of obtaining the real estate rights certificate.

"According to the latest response information from relevant departments in Shenzhen, there is currently no adjustment to Shenzhen's purchase and sales restrictions policies." A person from a real estate agency in Shenzhen told reporters.

Analysts said that judging from some indicators of Shenzhen's new home transaction volume in July, the local market transaction heat has declined to a certain extent.

According to CRIC data, the transaction area of ​​newly built commercial residential buildings in Shenzhen in July 2024 was 340,000 square meters, down 18% and 15% month-on-month and year-on-year respectively, and a slight increase of 1% compared with the average monthly transaction volume in the second quarter. In the first seven months of this year, the transaction area of ​​newly built commercial residential buildings in Shenzhen was 2.08 million square meters, down 17% year-on-year.

In terms of sales, Shenzhen's new home sales rate in July this year increased by 10 percentage points compared with June, but the sales rate of new homes in July this year was only 20%; this sales rate was 23 percentage points lower than the sales rate of 43% in July last year.

An analyst from a large real estate agency told the reporter that judging from some indicators monitored by their platform, the pace of buyers entering the market may show signs of slowing down.

"Considering that July and August are traditionally the off-season for real estate transactions, the recent decline in market heat may be more affected by seasonal factors. What changes will occur in the local market and policies in the future remains to be further observed," said the above analyst.

Industry insiders said that judging from the market trading situation in Shenzhen since August, transactions this month remained stable and there are no signs of a sharp decline.

According to data from the Leyoujia Research Center, as of August 12, the cumulative number of new homes signed online in Shenzhen since August this year was 1,049, and the cumulative number of second-hand homes transferred was 1,459. In the same period of July this year (July 1-July 12), the cumulative number of new homes signed online in Shenzhen was 995, and the cumulative number of second-hand homes transferred was 2,113.

Compared with the data in the same period of July, the volume of second-hand houses in Shenzhen has declined since August, while the transaction volume of new houses has been relatively stable and has increased slightly.

Regarding the rumors of Shenzhen's real estate policy adjustment again, industry insiders believe that this may be related to potential concerns in the market: there is uncertainty as to whether real estate transactions will fall again. As a result, some cities may further optimize market expectations for real estate policies.

In this regard, analysts pointed out that it is necessary to look at the current new home transaction data objectively and rationally.

Yan Yuejin, deputy director of the E-House Research Institute, said that in July 2024, the transaction area of ​​newly built commercial housing in 50 key cities across the country was 11.41 million square meters, a decrease of 26% month-on-month and 13% year-on-year. On the surface, the month-on-month and year-on-year transaction volume in July decreased, which in turn caused concerns and worries about "the market going down again". But in fact, July is originally a traditional off-season for the market, and it is normal for transaction data to fluctuate.

"One thing that needs to be pointed out is that if we look at the data from the first seven months of this year, the market as a whole has not experienced a cliff-like decline. This means that with the support of a series of policies, the new home transaction market has stabilized overall," said Yan Yuejin.

In terms of year-on-year growth, according to monitoring data from the E-House Research Institute, in July this year, five of the 22 cities showed positive year-on-year growth, including Nanning, Fuzhou, Guangzhou, Nanjing and Chongqing.

In Yan Yuejin's view, the real estate policies issued by various regions are generally positive and effective, and have also driven the market out of the relatively sluggish situation in the past. Recently, many cities have continued to optimize policies, such as Guangzhou Huadu District's policy of enjoying "quasi-hukou" treatment for home buyers, Chengdu's adjustment of the first home identification standards, and many cities' continuous adjustment of provident fund loans. These measures will further reduce the cost of buying a house and have a positive effect on enhancing the ability to buy a house.

"It is expected that the number of cities with positive year-on-year new home transactions will increase in August, which will have a positive effect on adjusting market expectations. We believe that the number of cities with positive year-on-year growth will increase in the future, which will in turn drive the data of 50 cities across the country to gradually move out of the negative growth range." Yan Yuejin added.