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As HuaweiHongmeng Intelligent DrivingThe most flagship sedan in the system announced its order data 72 hours after its official release: 2,500 units were ordered in 24 hours and 4,800 units were ordered in 72 hours.

Let’s not talk about whether this result is good or not.BAICBlue Valley's stock price fell first, failing to replicate the surge in share prices seen by SERES. This can be seen as investors not being very satisfied with this result.

Luxury pure electric cars are not selling well

More than 400,000 yuan, pure electric, sedan, these three keywords combined basically indicate that this type of car is destined not to be a hit, and there are very few products in the domestic auto market that meet these three conditions:NIO ET7，Tesla Model S，Porsche Taycan，Audi e-tron GT、BMW i7,besidesMercedes-Benz EQS Of course, cars are also counted, and the company that just declared bankruptcyHiPhiIts HiPhi Z Also, what is the estimated domestic sales volume of these brothers added together?

Among them, the car with the best sales is the NIO ET7. Thanks to the facelift, the sales of this car in July 2024 were 749 units. In June and May, the sales just exceeded 1,000, reaching 1,071 units. Before the facelift, the sales volume was around 100 units.

becauseTeslaNo more Model S and Model X We can only roughly estimate the current sales volume: in the second quarter of 2024, Tesla sold approximately 12,000 to 13,000 Model S and Model X vehicles worldwide. If broken down into monthly and market segments, the monthly sales of Model S in the domestic market will most likely not exceed 1,000 vehicles.

As for the major players such as Porsche Taycan, Audi e-tron GT, BMW i7, and Mercedes-Benz EQS, we can't find the specific sales data, but we can make a bold and rough estimate here: monthly sales are in the double digits.

In short, although the sales of NIO ET7 are average, it has already reached the sales ceiling among luxury pure electric sedans.Enjoy S9 The sales figures may not seem impressive, but they are already far beyond the reach of other players in this market segment. After all, in the entire market, the sales of pure electric cars priced above 400,000 yuan do not even reach 2,500.

If we change the combination to: more than 400,000, new energy, SUV, then we can find more players. The most well-known one is of course the big brother in Hongmeng Zhixing.QJM9Its large-scale order performance is astonishing: the large-scale order exceeded 10,000 in 2 hours, exceeded 30,000 in 7 days, and exceeded 100,000 in 6 months after listing.

Here comes a situation worth pondering: in the sub-category, the order quantity of Enjoy S9 is quite good; but compared with its big brother, Enjoy M9, it seems mediocre.

So what's the problem?

The price?

The high price is not the product’s problem, but the buyer’s problem.

The problem lies with pure electric vehicles and sedans.

Tesla's sales are not as good as last year

In the past two days, Thai media reported according to government sources that Tesla has abandoned its plan to build an electric car factory in Thailand, and Tesla has also shelved plans to build factories elsewhere in the world. Except for China, the United States and Germany, which already have super factories, Tesla will not continue to build factories in Malaysia, Indonesia or any other place.

However, Malaysia's Minister of Investment, Trade and Industry Zafrul said that Tesla had never promised to build a factory in Malaysia. Then Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar said on Friday that Tesla's postponement of its expansion plan in Southeast Asia had nothing to do with Malaysia's performance or policies, but was mainly due to the excessive competitive pressure from Chinese electric vehicles.

Tesla currently has four super factories in China, the United States and Germany. Another region where it plans to build a factory is Mexico, but there are also uncertainties. Musk previously stated that Tesla will decide whether to build a factory in Mexico after the election in November.

Compared toBYDAmid the rapid factory construction plans in Southeast Asia and Europe, Tesla's expansion appears quite restrained.

Of course, this restraint is also based on Tesla's current sales growth: in the second quarter of 2024, Tesla's revenue was US$25.5 billion, setting a record, but its net profit was US$1.494 billion, a decrease of 45% compared with the same period last year.

The more unfavorable news is that Tesla's total vehicle deliveries in the second quarter were 443,956, a year-on-year decrease of 5%. Tesla's sales also declined year-on-year last quarter.

In other words, Tesla's cars are not selling as well as last year, so there is no reason to expand production.

Therefore, people who make pure electric vehicles but don’t sell well don’t need to be too discouraged. After all, the industry leader Tesla has also declined year-on-year. Even the top students can’t get full marks and can only barely get a "good" grade, so it’s understandable that the poor students fail, right?

Of course, there are also some brands whose sales have increased rapidly due to their small base, such asNIOandZeekr, and their monthly sales have increased from 10,000 to 20,000.Xiaomi SU7 The first battle was a great victory, which boosted some confidence in the pure electric market.

But we still cannot have survivor bias and think that if others can do it, I can do it too. After all, men are afraid of choosing the wrong career, and cars are afraid of taking the wrong road.

New energy vehicles are selling well, but that doesn’t mean pure electric vehicles are selling well.

The first half of 2024 has just passed, and we can also look at the situation of the passenger car market from a macro perspective:

• In the first half of 2024, the cumulative retail sales of passenger cars reached 9.841 million, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%.
• Among them, the retail sales of fuel vehicles were 5.73 million, a year-on-year decrease of 13%.
• New energy vehicle sales reached 4.111 million units, up 33.1% year-on-year

This increase and decrease has brought joy to some and sorrow to others: in the first half of this year, there were 35 passenger car manufacturers with monthly wholesale sales of over 10,000, accounting for 96.4% of the overall market share.

However, 22 of them experienced negative year-on-year growth, 10 experienced year-on-year growth of more than 10%, and 3 experienced year-on-year growth of more than 50%.

This means that the market is undergoing a process of survival of the fittest and concentration of the top players. The China Passenger Car Association said that the transformation of the top traditional car companies has been relatively successful, including BYD,Chery Automobile、Geely Automobile、Changan AutomobileThe share increased significantly.

Based on these data, we can draw a conclusion: only focusing on fuel vehicles will lead to a dead end, while transitioning to new energy will provide a way out.

This is indeed the case. Looking at the data for July, the national retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 878,000 units this month, a year-on-year increase of 36.9%. The monthly sales volume exceeded the sales volume of fuel passenger vehicles (840,000 units) for the first time.

However, the main contributors to the high growth of new energy are still hybrid and extended-range vehicles, rather than pure electric vehicles.

For example, BYD, the leading domestic new energy company, released its fifth-generation DM-i technology andQin L The fuel consumption of this model is less than 2.9L per 100 kilometers, and the comprehensive range with a full tank of fuel and a full charge is over 2,300km. This car immediately became the second-best-selling model in the entire BYD system in July, with monthly sales of 32,466 units.

In terms of sales growth, BYD's cumulative sales in the first half of the year reached 1.613 million units, a year-on-year increase of 28.46%. Among them, pure electric vehicle sales were 726,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 17.73%; plug-in hybrid models sold 881,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 39.54%. The growth rate of pure electric vehicles was significantly lower than the overall growth rate of new energy vehicles.

As for the sales of Wenjie M9, the proportion of extended-range models currently accounts for 80%-90%, and the proportion of pure electric models is only 10%-20%.

The extended-range power form is even more ideal andAsk the worldAfter the success of both brands, they have become the type that many car companies must follow, such as the upcomingAvita 07, will adopt two power forms: pure electric and extended range.Star Road Star Era ET, and is also equipped with both pure electric and extended-range models.

Dongfeng MotorThe two models launched by its new brand Yipai, 007 and 008, also adopt the product combination of extended range and pure electric.

andLynk & Co 07 andLynk & Co 08 They also call their own hybrid technology "super-range extended-range", although their working principles are not exactly the same as those of extended-range vehicles.

In addition, Zeekr, Xiaomi,ZhijiandXiaopengThere have been reports that they are planning to develop extended-range or hybrid vehicles.

It can be said that for the market, "extended range" is a keyword that can help stabilize sales, but pure electric means taking a gamble.

Bringing extended range to the massesIdeal AutoMore say here:Ideal L7After the success of 89, the pure electric MPV MEGA released by Ideal suffered a sales Waterloo, and its performance was far below Ideal's internal expectations. Ideal even delayed the launch of other pure electric models and instead invested its energy into the launch and sales of L6 and the construction of charging piles.

Even in the United States, Tesla's home base, the situation is similar. The sales growth of pure electric vehicles is slowing down, while the sales volume and growth rate of hybrid vehicles are significantly higher than pure electric vehicles.

Another basic common sense is that in the Chinese passenger car market, SUV sales are higher than sedans, just like Model Y Sales volume is higher thanModel 3 Same.

Therefore, pure electric vehicles are not easy to sell when they meet sedans, and adding the luxury market means that it is even more courageous. Based on these two points, the value of NIO's monthly sales of 20,000 is still increasing, and it is a lone brave in the most difficult track.

However, for players who want to participate in market competition, they don’t have to be so hard on themselves. Extended-range and hybrid vehicles are both new energy sources.

However, there are still million-level pure electric cars such as Yangwang U7, NIO ET9 and so on to come. This tiger mountain is really full of people who are willing to take it.

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