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Source: Fengcaixun

Author | Wang Tingting

The half-year financial report season has arrived, and the real estate market has seen a deep correction.

On August 12, the real estate sector fluctuated and fell, with many stocks such as Shenzhen Property A falling by more than 5%.

The half-year performance of listed real estate companies has indeed given the market limited confidence.Tracked data of 180 listed real estate companiesIt shows that as of August 12, companies such as Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, Macrolink, Hang Lung Group, Wharf Group, and Swire Properties have released their 2024 first-half financial reports among A-shares and H-shares; about 82 listed real estate companies have released their half-year performance forecasts.

Decline and loss are the "main theme" of the current performance of listed real estate companies.Hong Kong stocks, Swire Properties experienced a rare decline in net profit, Wharf Property experienced a rare loss, and Vanke issued a rare warning of losses.

A-sharesIn addition, about 47 real estate companies (35%) warned of net losses attributable to their parent companies. A-share real estate companies such as Joy City, Financial Street, Chongqing Development, Guangdong Hongyuan, Sunshine Group, Rongfeng Holdings, Guangyu Group, Rongsheng Development, Nanshan Holdings, and Crown Castle ranked at the top in terms of expected losses.

The real estate companies' performance list shows that some companies sell chickens and air conditioners

Non-mainstream real estate developers emerge dramatically

In the tide of oversell,Rare "profit"Worth paying attention to.

Phoenix.com Fengcai News found that in the first half of 2024, in addition to Poly Development and China Merchants ShekouContinuous ProfitabilityReal estate giants such as Xinhualian, Woaiwojia, Shenzhen Real Estate A, Sanxiang Impression, and Huali Family also achieved their goals with difficulty.Turning losses into profits。

(Source: Tonghuashun)

Also interesting is thatChunlan shares, ST Shuyuan, China Wuyi, Kingkey ZhinongReal estate companies that do not look like real estate developers have successfully emerged in the real estate world because they are still making money.

Even Jingji Zhinong's net profit attributable to the parent company in the first half of the year is expected to be 200 million to 260 million yuan, and its profit level is second only to real estate giants such as Poly Development and China Merchants Shekou; Chunlan Holdings,st number sourceAlso because of the significant increase in net profit, it defeated almost 80% of real estate companies and ranked first on the profit list.

You know,Kingkey Smart AgricultureIt started out as a chicken farm. Its predecessor, Condal, controlled the poultry market in Hong Kong. It is said that one out of every four chickens in Hong Kong comes from Condal. The company was later acquired by Kingkey Group and renamed Kingkey Smart Agriculture, and a large amount of old-town renovation assets were injected into it. As of 2023, Kingkey Smart Agriculture's real estate business revenue has reached 8.58 billion, accounting for 69%, and other revenue comes from breeding and feed production.

This group of "real estate" companies, which once received almost no attention among many real estate companies, finally "earned" a ranking amid widespread losses.

Indeed, after the real estate "ebb tide",The gross profit margins and profitability of companies are declining, with no one being an exception.

For example, Poly Development achieved operating revenue of 139.269 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 7.508 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 38.57%; during the same period, China Merchants Shekou achieved total operating revenue of 51.273 billion yuan and net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.417 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34.17%, both due to the decline in project gross profit margin and reduced investment income.

However, the profit growth of real estate companies is not entirely due to real estate.

For example, Chunlan Holdings, whose net profit increased significantly in the first half of 2024, achieved a net profit of 115 million yuan because it made money from investing in power plants (investment income of approximately 112 million yuan).

Chunlan Refrigeration's main business is the sales of air-conditioning and refrigeration products. As the first generation of "air-conditioning overlord", Chunlan was able to achieve air-conditioning sales of 5.3 billion and net profit of 600 million in 1994.

However, in 2009, during the delisting crisis of Chunlan Refrigeration, the company was able to resume listing by relying on 656 million yuan in accounts receivable and the equity of three subsidiaries, and exchanging 60% of the equity of Taizhou Xingwei Real Estate Company, 10% of the equity of Taizhou Power Plant, and 155,500 square meters of land under the parent company Chunlan Group.

Since then, real estate has become a major business of Chunlan Refrigeration. As of 2023, real estate still accounts for 51.86% of the company's total operating income, and manufacturing accounts for 21.95%. However, Chunlan's real estate business is limited to Taizhou, Jiangsu, and the development progress is slow. The sales of air conditioners are also insufficient. It has been losing ground in the competition with air conditioner giants, and its situation is quite embarrassing.

ST Shuyuan's main business is electronic information products. In the company's operating income in 2023, real estate development and operation accounted for 50.28%, and park industry accounted for 25.99%, which has occupied the largest proportion; the original main business of "communications and equipment manufacturing industry" accounted for only 20.06%.

However, Suyuan Technology expects its net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company to be RMB 72.8 million to RMB 109 million in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 73.58% to 160.37%, mainly due to the recovery of some receivables for which impairment provisions were made on a single item basis.

Fang Kun, senior macro analyst at Guangdong Securities, bluntly stated that sales and profits of listed real estate companies continued to bottom out, and corporate differentiation will intensify.

ThisMainstream real estate developers are weak, and non-mainstream real estate developers occasionally emergeThe "dramatic scene" may appear many times during the low tide stage.

Old Hong Kong capital also started to lose money

"Restarting a game" changes will become the norm

Another point worth noting this year is that Hong Kong-funded real estate developers, which are known for their ability to cross cycles, will also have to go through a painful period of "difficulty in making money" in this round of real estate adjustments.

(Source: Tonghuashun)

In the first half of 2024, Wharf Properties has already started to lose money, with a loss of HK$1.052 billion attributable to shareholders, a year-on-year decline of 158.28%. Wharf Properties was spun off from Wharf Group and listed independently, with its main business being rental and investment income from commercial and office properties in Hong Kong and a small number of mainland China properties.

The Wharf Group was still profitable in the first half of the year, but it decreased by 2% year-on-year to HK$3.085 billion. Total operating revenue during the period was HK$7.032 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 14%. It can be seen that more businesses including investment properties, sales properties and logistics are currently difficult to support the company's rapid development.

Similarly, although the total revenue of Hang Lung Properties and Hang Lung Group still increased, the profits attributable to shareholders of both companies declined, especially Hang Lung Properties, whose net profit fell by 55.68% year-on-year.

Swire Properties' revenue and net profit both declined, with revenue of HK$7.279 billion, a rare year-on-year decline of 0.25%; profit attributable to shareholders was HK$1.796 billion, a year-on-year decline of 19.21%.

The "loss-making" situation of A-share real estate companies is even more exciting.

(Source: Tonghuashun)

Data shows that among the 72 A-share listed real estate companies that released their performance forecasts for the first half of 2024,47 companies forecast a net loss attributable to their parent companies, the loss is expected to be between 27.4 billion yuan and 34.9 billion yuan.

in,Vanke A, Gemdale Group, Joy City, Beijing Capital Development, Qixia Construction, ST Dima, Beichen Industry, Rongsheng Development, Shenzhen Zhenye, Urban Construction DevelopmentIt is the first time that real estate companies such as Real Estate Development have issued loss warnings.

Vanke A's loss is between 7 billion and 9 billion yuan, which is very rare. However, in comparison, Beichen Industrial and Yuanda Holdings' net profit is expected to fall by 79 times and 65 times year-on-year, which is even more shocking.

in addition,*ST Jinke, OCT A, Shoukai, Financial Street, CCCC Real EstateCompanies such as Xinhualian have predicted losses in half-year net profits for two consecutive years. The earliest batch of "thunderstorm" real estate companies, such as Xinhualian, have turned losses into profits in the first half of 2024.

"This round of real estate adjustment will take at least 3-5 years." The media quoted Wang Shi's judgment during a public appearance, which now seems to make sense.

Wang Shi believes that it will take a long time for confidence to fully return to the past. The real estate market will definitely be reshuffled in the next few years.

Perhaps the rare declines, losses and exits of the former "three good students" will no longer be uncommon; the former "too big to fail" companies may also face the dilemma of being squeezed out by various unknown "extras".

After all, when we “start over”, perhaps change is the norm.