2024-08-12
한어Русский языкEnglishFrançaisIndonesianSanskrit日本語DeutschPortuguêsΕλληνικάespañolItalianoSuomalainenLatina
The property market seems calm on the surface recently, but there are undercurrents behind it. Each undercurrent will affect everyone's decision to buy a house, so I will help everyone avoid pitfalls one by one:
Why do we say that current housing prices have bottomed out? Observe two data:Rent and rent-to-sale ratio；
Generally speaking, when the rental-to-sale ratio reaches a reasonable level, it also means that this round of housing price correction is basically over, suggesting that this round of housing price bubble is almost gone, and it is almost time to buy a house if you need to!
Okay, the currentWhat is the rental-to-sale ratio?
The rental-to-sale ratio is different in each city. Currently, the rental-to-sale ratio in many second- and third-tier cities has exceeded3%For example, if the annual rental income of a house worth 1 million is 30,000, then the rental-to-sale ratio is 3%;
At present, the rental-to-sale ratio of apartments in some first-tier cities and strong second-tier cities has obviously exceeded 3%, and some can even reach 5%-8%;
Take Changsha as an example. A 65-square-meter apartment in the city center with a river viewDuplexThe market price of an apartment has now dropped to around 500,000 yuan, and the monthly rent can reach 3,000 yuan, and the rental-to-sale ratio can reach7.2%；
Taking Shenzhen as an example, an old and dilapidated second-hand house in Luohu District, with an area of 78 square meters and three small bedrooms, is located next to the Guomao subway station. The market price has now dropped to 2.2 million yuan, but the monthly rent can reach 8,500 yuan, and the rental-to-sale ratio can reach4.6%；
Coupled with the reduction in bank deposit rates, the 5-year deposit rate is already below 2%, and many banks only have 1.8%; while the rental-to-sale ratio of houses in core cities easily exceeds 3%, and some are as high as 5%-7%. At this time, the market began to show some reversals.
Those people who used to like saving money are now slowly changing their mindsets, and buying a house seems to have become a must!
The main reason is that mortgage interest rates are also being lowered, and in many cities have fallen below 3%, while the rental-to-sale ratio is higher than 3%, which means that buying a house has entered a zero-cost era.
Before, many real estate market airmen said that housing prices would fall to rock bottom. Now it seems that this is impossible, because when housing prices fall to a certain level, the rental-to-sale ratio is significantly higher than the bank deposit rate, and the mortgage rate is also lower than the rental-to-sale ratio. At this time, many people will consider buying a house, because keeping money in the bank is obviously a loss!
Moreover, for first- and second-tier cities, especially those with high net population inflows, the future rental market will be considerable and rent increases are inevitable.
In other words, as long as the location where I buy the house is such that the demand for rental housing is greater than the supply for a long time in the future, I will not have to worry about not being able to rent out the house, and the rent will increase every year.
No matter how sluggish the current real estate market is, judging from the rental-to-sale ratio alone, you are not at a disadvantage. Although the rate of return cannot be compared with the rapid rise in housing prices when the real estate market is good, it is at least much better than keeping the money in a bank.
Choose the lesser of two evils. For people with a lot of cash, buying a house becomes an unavoidable choice!
Should I buy a house or save money?
This topic is enduring because a large number of people make a choice between the two every day.
But as long as you are still full of confidence in the future economy, in the country, and in the core assets of core cities, this issue is actually a very good choice. It must be purchasing high-quality assets, which is better than keeping money in the bank.
Of course, for the vast majority of third- and fourth-tier cities and small counties, there is no need to spend money to buy a house at this time. One reason is that the house may not be able to be rented out. Another reason is that in most cities, the uncertainty factors of future housing prices are too high. With the net outflow of population and industry, housing prices cannot be maintained!
Therefore, what you need to accomplish is the mobilization and transfer of assets. Even if you don’t move, you need to move your money to first-tier cities and strong second-tier cities.
This is what I always say,People who move live, trees that move die. Even if people don’t move, the money must be moved!
To put it bluntly, this is not news anymore, because in the past decade or so, almost every province has been promoting it, but the momentum has not been strong. Why has the momentum been increased this year?
Because local governments have no money, don’t they have to restructure some public institutions? They can’t get blood transfusions, so they can only enter the market and try their luck!
It’s like a person has 8 children. When the family income is good, they can support all of them. But now the income is not so good, so they can only send a few children into society early to work hard and earn money to support the family!
That's the thing! Don't be too nervous!
However, we cannot take it lightly, because the restructuring of public institutions means that market competition will become increasingly fierce. In the next few years, everyone's business will become more and more inward-looking!
So how should ordinary people deal with it? Teacher Jiang gave 3 suggestions:
1. If you are a civil servant with a stable job, from now on, you should actively give yourselfPlanning a way out。
Because of the institutional reform, it is very likely that you will lose your current stable job, so you need to build a firewall against your household debt ratio.
For example, your family has bought two houses, and the total monthly mortgage payments are 15,000 yuan, while your family's monthly income is 20,000 yuan. At this time, you should start to reduce your debt ratio. It is best to sell one of the houses and reduce the monthly mortgage payments to less than 10,000 yuan. In this way, even if you lose your iron rice bowl, the pressure will not be too great.
2. If you are not a civil servant and are just an ordinary white-collar worker, then your best way out is to create a second growth curve for yourself.
To put it bluntly, it is to doA side job, increase income. Maybe you can't afford to buy a house in a big city with your salary, but if you have a side job and keep doing it for a long time, your income will double, and you will have the opportunity to buy a house.
Moreover, the real estate market is now in a downward cycle, and the threshold for buying a house is lower than in the previous two years. Therefore, after your income increases, buying a house will be relatively easy for you.
The most important point is that if you have side income, you will feel more confident when working in the company and no longer have to worry about your boss or superiors doing PUA to you. The right to choose in life should always be in your own hands.
3. If you have a stable income, have accumulated a lot of savings, and have a well-off family, then you should consider asset allocation.
Because of the interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, increased inflation expectations and accelerated currency depreciation, you should actively look for high-quality assets at this time. The best allocation plan is to purchase multiple high-productivity houses in core areas in 4+7 cities.
With the arrival of the dual-track housing system, improved housing will have obvious room for value preservation and appreciation, while housing for basic needs, especially small-sized houses, will be impacted by the affordable housing market in the future. Coupled with the backwardness of housing products, their value preservation will be reduced.
In short, friends who have not bought a house yet should actively increase their income. For working people, after work, they should build their personal IP and use traffic leverage to increase their income.
The middle class and the rich should consider asset allocation and transfer, selling houses in low-energy cities and replacing them with houses in high-energy cities, and replacing houses with low product value with houses with high product value.
When it comes to Anomaly 4.0, many people have different opinions!
Because everyone’s needs are different!
You see, the demand for real estate can be roughly divided intoTwo：
One is to just have a house to live in;
The other is that I want to live in a better house!
Most people spend their entire lives pursuing the first one!
Only a few people think about the second need every day!
Why did the country recently cancel the standards for ordinary residences and non-ordinary residences? Because this is paving the way for 4.0 properties!
So-called1.0 Era, refers to old and dilapidated houses with brick-concrete structures, staircase houses, and unit dormitories;
So-called2.0 Era, which is a steel-concrete structure house + a tower elevator house;
So-called3.0 Era, which is a modern residence with separate lanes for people and vehicles and high-rise elevators;
So-called3.5 EraIt is a modern green residence with a wide balcony, which can be used to plant flowers and plants. The community has a clubhouse and a slab-shaped building design. There are two elevators and two households on each floor, and an independent entrance hall.CARPARK RATEUp to 100%, this type of house is 3.5, also known as improved housing.
So-called4.0 EraIt is difficult for us to define it, because there are no strictly 4.0 era products. Some people say that the floor height will be higher than 3.6 meters, some people say that the lighting standard will be greatly improved, and some people say that AI and metaverse interfaces will be pre-embedded in the house, human-computer interaction, and human-room interaction;
In fact, these definitions are not important. We just need to figure out one thing: who are the people living in these houses?
You see, technology is changing at a rapid pace, so how can you define it?
What can be defined is always people! Because in 10, 20, 50, or 100 years, the criteria for dividing people will never change!
We call more than 80% of the people as those with rigid needs. Most people in big cities either rent a house, live in public housing, or buy 1.0 and 2.0 houses. That’s it.
Only a few people have no shortage of houses or money to buy houses. What they pursue is the quality of life, which is 4.0.
No matter how 4.0 changes, the target audience of this type of house will always be a minority!
So, a fan asked me, Teacher Jiang, I saw a product of the 4.0 era in the suburbs of Chengdu, and the unit price is only more than 9,000 yuan. Can I buy this kind of house?
Sorry, what you bought is not 4.0, because what defines the 4.0 standard has never been the appearance and product performance, but the location and the crowd!
Product performance is a plus, but it has never been the key to defining products and people!
In the past two days, the little things happening in the Shenzhen real estate circle have become more and more exaggerated and realistic!
What's the news? Shenzhen's property market is expected to be significantly relaxed in August and September!
How powerful is the loosening? There are five specific points:
1. Futian and Nanshan have uniformly adjusted the social security period for home purchases. Previously, it was 5 years for non-Shenzhen residents, but now it is adjusted to 1 year;
2. Except for Futian and Nanshan, outsiders buy houses in other areas with their eyes closed!
3. The deed tax for the first and second houses is adjusted to 1%;
4. Change the value-added tax from 5 to 2;
5. The sales restriction period will be abolished or changed to 2 years;
In my opinion, the scale is still a little small. There is no need to hide Futian and Nanshan. Just open it up! If you want to protect the rigid demand or save some face, then adjust it to Futian and Nanshan. Houses with an area of more than 128 square meters can be bought by outsiders!
But I think the policy is not smart enough!
You can add one more item, for example, there should be a difference in the down payment ratio between locals and non-locals when buying a house!
In order to combat real estate speculators, the down payment ratio for non-locals buying houses in Shenzhen has been increased to 50%, while the down payment ratio for local people buying their first house can be further reduced to 15% or even 10%;
Simply put, if you have an urgent need for the property, I will support you and can give you more loans, and even offer preferential interest rates. If you are an out-of-town investor, I'm sorry, I don't welcome you. You can buy it, but the down payment ratio will be higher and the loan interest rate will be higher than that for urgent need.
Do you think this policy is feasible? Welcome to discuss in the comments section.
Collect and organize the latest news information and make it available for free for everyone to read
